The Bigger Picture - Substance Ban Makes Things Worse (For Now)

It only took 118 years, but Major League Baseball is finally taking a hard stance on the illegal use of foreign substances by pitchers. Better late than never!

The ethical issues surrounding both sides of the debate will be left for another space. The intention here is to get into the logistics of the on-field impact this decision will leave in its wake. Whether you agree with the way MLB is handling things or you're part of the other 99.9% of the populace, as Sam Cook crooned, a change is gonna come.

The knee-jerk reaction is that pitchers will suffer while hitters will thrive. That and maybe we'll finally see some offense in 2021. But as with most wide-reaching issues, it's not that simple. In fact, hitters may rue the day that sticky stuff disappeared from the hands, gloves, caps, sleeves, and foreheads of opposing pitchers.

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What's Going On?

Beginning on June 21, umpires will have the authority to check pitchers for use of foreign substances in-game, without the need for a request from a manager.

According to an official statement from the league, this can happen if or when “the baseball has an unusually sticky feel to it, or when the umpire observes a pitcher going to his glove, hat, belt, or any other part of his uniform or body to retrieve or apply what may be a foreign substance.”

One can only imagine what wondrous discoveries will be made.

The obvious question is: why now? Pitchers have been using a variety of substances for decades. It's one of the worst-known secrets in the game. For any pitcher to feign ignorance of this activity would be akin to the Astros claiming they didn't know sign-stealing was frowned upon.

Commissioner Rob Manfred explained his thinking thus.

It has become clear that the use of foreign substance has generally morphed from trying to get a better grip on the ball into something else — an unfair competitive advantage that is creating a lack of action and an uneven playing field.

Players who are caught will be subjected to a 10-game suspension (with pay) effective immediately.

The commissioner has the responsibility to protect the integrity of the game and do what is "in the best interests of the game." Offense is generally what attracts fans and viewers, so it's naturally in the best interest of the sport to get back to the homer-happy game we saw a few years ago. We have seen pitchers return to dominance and the league-wide batting average drop to .238, which is the lowest mark since 1968.

Revenue is already down due to a shortened 2020 and COVID-related ballpark restrictions, many of which are still in place. If the excitement of a home run race disappears and fans are subjected to a slew of 2-1 scores, the game may not rebound. While the timing is curious and the method of implementation still to be determined, the reasons are clear and understandable.

 

Foreign Substances or Familiar Friends?

Not shockingly, pitchers aren't happy. Before the rule has even gone into effect, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow blamed the crackdown for his recent UCL injury.

The most vocal opponent? Hold onto your seats... Trevor Bauer isn't a fan.

"They didn't get a whole lot about this right." @BauerOutage sounds off on MLB's foreign substance crackdown. pic.twitter.com/jqNMlCpGgj

— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) June 16, 2021

This is to be expected. No sticky stuff means lower spin rates and leads to fewer strikeouts with higher contact rates.

But why haven't more hitters been up in arms about pitchers using sticky stuff? The Office of the Commissioner intervened, but we don't have a huge public backlash from the ones who would seem to be suffering the most. Aside from the occasional player like Steven Souza Jr. or Todd Frazier, most hitters are tight-lipped on the subject.

Perhaps it's one of those unwritten rules that we hear so much about. After all, snitches get stitches. To be specific, that would be the stitching on the seams of a 99 MPH fastball heading toward your body as retribution.

According to Glasnow, we haven't heard from batters complaining because they simply accept the use of substances.

"We had a union meeting, 36 reps were on there," Glasnow said. "And it was like, 'Does anyone have a problem with sunscreen and rosin?' No. Not a single person said there was a problem with it. Hitters said go ahead and use it."

wut

Why would they be OK with it?

It's a painful topic but one that should be broached to fully understand the bigger picture.

 

Control (They Like to Have A Lot)

The reason pitchers initially began using foreign substances was to get better control of the ball. It stands to reason that better control means better results, but it should also make hitters feel at ease. An oft-cited reason some hitters have knowingly accepted this practice without speaking up is that pitchers with an increased ability to locate pitches is less prone to plunking them squarely in the noggin.

Over the past decade, the rate of hit-by-pitch incidents is slowly increasing. A look back at the past 50 years of data, courtesy of Fangraphs, confirms what we've previously covered about strikeout rates nearly doubling. It also shows that batters are getting plunked more than ever with 2001 being the only outlier that matches last year's high mark.

Season	G	AVG	K%	BB%	HBP	HBP/GM
1961	36209	.258	13.6%	9.0%	573	.015
1962	41457	.258	14.1%	8.8%	709
1963	40602	.246	15.3%	7.8%	714
1964	41205	.250	15.6%	7.8%	694
1965	42219	.246	15.7%	8.2%	720
1966	41587	.249	15.5%	7.7%	682
1967	41712	.242	15.9%	7.9%	751
1968	40822	.237	15.8%	7.6%	778
1969	49929	.248	15.2%	9.1%	882
1970	50415	.254	15.0%	9.2%	825
1971	48809	.249	14.3%	8.5%	821	.016
1972	46786	.244	14.8%	8.4%	751
1973	46316	.257	13.7%	8.8%	755
1974	47228	.257	13.1%	8.7%	774
1975	46887	.258	13.0%	9.0%	761
1976	46634	.255	12.7%	8.4%	684
1977	50773	.264	13.4%	8.5%	791
1978	50274	.258	12.6%	8.5%	772
1979	50044	.265	12.5%	8.5%	754
1980	51112	.265	12.5%	8.2%	657
1981	34019	.256	12.5%	8.4%	464	.013
1982	50473	.261	13.2%	8.3%	677
1983	50955	.261	13.5%	8.4%	717
1984	51802	.260	14.0%	8.3%	668
1985	51212	.257	14.0%	8.6%	699
1986	51110	.258	15.4%	8.8%	812
1987	51173	.263	15.5%	8.9%	842
1988	49903	.254	14.7%	8.1%	918
1989	50628	.254	14.8%	8.5%	801
1990	51345	.258	14.9%	8.6%	861
1991	51796	.256	15.2%	8.7%	905	.017
1992	50937	.256	14.7%	8.5%	980
1993	55035	.265	15.1%	8.7%	1200
1994	38374	.270	15.9%	8.9%	876
1995	49777	.267	16.2%	9.1%	1219
1996	55959	.270	16.5%	9.1%	1404
1997	58107	.267	17.1%	8.9%	1449
1998	62317	.266	16.9%	8.7%	1587
1999	61966	.271	16.4%	9.4%	1579
2000	62083	.270	16.5%	9.6%	1573
2001	61371	.264	17.3%	8.5%	1890	.030
2002	68340	.261	16.8%	8.7%	1746
2003	68519	.264	16.4%	8.5%	1849
2004	68880	.266	16.9%	8.6%	1850
2005	68432	.264	16.4%	8.2%	1797
2006	69333	.269	16.8%	8.4%	1817
2007	70143	.268	17.1%	8.5%	1755
2008	69564	.264	17.5%	8.7%	1672
2009	69035	.262	18.0%	8.9%	1590
2010	68923	.257	18.5%	8.5%	1549
2011	68729	.255	18.6%	8.1%	1554	.022
2012	69521	.255	19.8%	8.0%	1494	.021
2013	69267	.253	19.9%	7.9%	1536	.022
2014	69565	.251	20.4%	7.6%	1652	.023
2015	70535	.254	20.4%	7.7%	1602	.022
2016	70449	.255	21.1%	8.2%	1651	.023
2017	70745	.255	21.6%	8.5%	1763	.024
2018	71590	.248	22.3%	8.5%	1922	.026
2019	71684	.252	23.0%	8.5%	1984	.027
2020	26721	.245	23.4%	9.2%	821	.030
2021	29013	.238	24.0%	8.8%	860	.029

Fewer tools at pitchers' disposal to help their grip means it's harder for them to get the best of a batter. It might also lead to more walks and more HBP. In this sense, it will lead to more runners on base but not in the form of more balls in play, which is the desired outcome.

It's not as if hitters will begin living in fear of getting plunked or that pitchers will be hitting the the backstop like Ricky Vaughn, but with pitchers throwing harder than ever, there will be a re-learning curve for some who have been relying on sticky stuff for years.

 

It's Not Cheating If You Don't Get Caught

There's no need to delve into the pitchers who will likely see their spin rates (and efficiency) plummet most. That topic has already been covered in detail by Jon Anderson in an excellent analytical breakdown.

Believe it or not, pitchers have already begun adjusting. Perhaps out of fear of being scrutinized more closely or just an attempt to adjust to their new way of life, like Glasnow. The proof is in the Statcast pudding.

As others have shown, we have seen a pretty noticeable drop in spin rate since MLB's June 3 foreign substance crackdown notice. Here's the league-average Bauer Units on four-seam fastballs by date this season: pic.twitter.com/OpoRmeWLK8

— Devan Fink (@DevanFink) June 15, 2021

Spin rates go down, that could mean more offense. It's already meant noticeably less-efficient pitching. Over the last 14 days, pitching stats are already changing for the worse. Interestingly, HBP rates are slightly down but the variance is negligible and the sample small.

Just imagine once June 20th hits and the first pitcher gets suspended for Spider Tack. Those ratios could continue to inflate and we may see less separation between the elite starters and the rest of the pack.

Personally, I'll be monitoring the Spin Leaderboard on BaseballSavant closely over the coming weeks and months to see how it changes. Pitchers who have recently encountered success when they hadn't previously, such as Zach Plesac, Tyler Mahle, Austin Gomber and more, will be under the microscope. Dominant aces like Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer have already been linked to overt reliance on tacky material to assist their performance.

It's too soon to point fingers, but in the end, the numbers will tell the true story. Overreaction is never a good idea, but if your fantasy ace is among the prime suspects, brace yourself for a potential blow to the ratios and have a backup plan ready.

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