RADIO
*Eric Cartman voice* "Come on, Kyyyyyyyyle..."
For real, Kyle got us in on the bold predictions and I'm glad he did. These are always fun to do, and it'll be even more fun looking back in September and finding out I nailed all 10. Max claimed in his piece that the best hitter on the team bats second, and if that's the case then my placement is appropriate. Ready for the cleanup thunder? Let's get wild.
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Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Byung-ho Park hits 40 home runs.
Kyle actually already touched on this one slightly in his bold predictions piece, but I'm here to single out Park instead of the combination of Park and Sano. Go on Youtube and search for "Byung-ho Park home run". I'll wait. Too lazy? Here's him smashing a 522-foot moonshot. Click around and you'll see more terrifyingly deep bombs and the accompanying bat flips that are the norm in South Korea. This dude has freak power, and he's going to abuse that 377' power alley in left-center.
2. Dallas Keuchel wins the AL Cy Young--AGAIN.
Keuchel and that incredible beard (he didn't shave it, did he?) are going to run the gauntlet and do the damn thing again, mark it down. My fantasy SP2 (behind only Jake Arrieta) was a pleasure to own last year thanks to his microscopic ERA and WHIP, both of which came on the back of his vicious sinker. Concerns about his lack of strikeouts are unfounded, as he had 212 total Ks last year (good for 8.4 K/9). The Astros are my AL pick for the World Series this year, and they're going to do it with Keuchel at the helm.
3. Miguel Cabrera brings the AL MVP award back where it belongs.
Last year's AL batting champ (bet you forgot that, didn't you? Don't lie...) went on the DL for the first time in his career last year, so naturally his statline suffered. In his absence, his prestige was surpassed by the likes of Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa and Manny Machado, but I say Miggy regains his place on the throne as the AL's best. Allowing for some obvious regression from his career bests, Cabrera will still put up an MVP-caliber season hitting in the middle of a potent Tigers lineup and with a full healthy season. His .320 batting average, 100 runs scored, 30 bombs and 120 RBIs will put the Tigers squarely in the driver's seat in the AL Central in 2016.
4. Jaime Garcia makes...wait for it...30 starts this year.
I tried to trade Garcia in a package just yesterday. My friend Chuck (@CJSpeakEasy) said that he had "No interest in Jaime whatsoever. Dude is a China doll." That might be an exaggeration, but it also probably isn't. Garcia simply can't stay healthy, which is a real shame considering how good his per-game stats are. In the 27 starts Garcia has made over the last two seasons, he's 13-7 with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP hovering around 1.05. I drafted him this year thinking (praying) that he can stay healthy for the full year, and by God I'm going to stick by that.
5. Luis Severino is a top-10 pitcher in the AL.
I wrote "in the MLB", then really thought about it. I want to keep writing professionally, so there has to be a line drawn somewhere, bold predictions or not.
Severino has all the stuff of an ace--a fastball that hovers right around 95 MPH, a nasty slider and a change-up that would probably be a little more effective if he wasn't slinging it in there at 87 MPH. The key here is whether or not the Yankees will let him pitch more than around 175 innings. He's only 22 years old, and as the brightest young star they have they may not want to risk overworking him. Here's the thing--the rest of the Yankees rotation is riddled with injury histories and questionable performance. I say they don't have any choice come August, and they keep Severino on a six-day schedule to keep him in play for the stretch run. A sub-3.50 ERA and 200 Ks is well within his grasp, and I say he gets there.
6. Eric Hosmer is a top-five first baseman.
If the Wizard of Hoz duplicates his stats from last year he'll be near or in the top 10 first basemen, and I expect him to approach the same run totals in 2016 with essentially the same lineup around him. However, I believe he can crack 30 home runs after posting his highest ISO in the last four years in 2015 (.162). He hit .297 last year, and I believe he'll change his approach in 2016, sacrificing some of that batting average for better power numbers. I have him breaking 30 homers and 100 RBIs, which should put him in the top five at the position.
7. David Price is not a top-20 starting pitcher.
Look at all that optimism up there. Time to break out my Debbie Downer outfit.
Such a significant fall might be a bit harsh, but these are the bold predictions! Plus Price traded in Canada blue for Beantown red, and outside of their really smahhht cawlidges, there ain't much I like about that chowdah-suckin' city. Really though, I think it's all about the change of scenery here. Fenway Pahhhk ain't the Trawp or the Rawjahs Centah, and I think Price won't adapt well to the culture or the screwy dimensions. Through his career hitters have tended to pull the ball against Price (34.7% pull versus 27.9% oppo according to Fangraphs) and I think the Green Monstah swallows him up.
Okay, no more Boston players. I sweah.
8. The Arizona Diamondbacks have three 20/20 players.
This one is actually not crazy. The obvious one is Paul Goldschmidt, who is a virtual lock for 30/15. A. J. Pollock did it last year, popping 20 big flies and stealing 39 bags. The breakout I'm banking on with this prediction is David Peralta. We have never seen him fully unleashed due to the logjam in the Arizona outfield. However, with Ender Inciarte out of the picture Peralta should start every day. He hit 17 homers and stole nine bases with just 462 at-bats last year, so if he approaches 600--watch out.
9. Sean Doolittle saves 40 games.
The big leap of faith here is whether or not the Athletics will even give him 40 opportunities. Assuming they do, I think Doolittle will convert at least 40. His stuff is on another level when he's at full strength, which he should be after missing the majority of the 2015 season. If he can regain the 95 MPH fastball that made him so lethal towards the end of 2014, I think Doolittle can regain his place among baseball's closer elite.
10. Matt Carpenter is a top-three third baseman.
Here's why this one is bold--it implies that one of Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado or Nolan Arenado underperforms Carpenter. The two-time All Star sacrificed batting average for power last season, hitting just .272 while smashing 28 homers. This year I think he'll find a comfortable balance and continue to rack up the counting stats as the Cardinals continue to win ballgames. Let's get real ballsy and throw out a stat line--.285 with 110 runs scored, 98 RBIs and 27 homers.
Boy, that still isn't going to be good enough to beat the big three up there, is it? Fingers crossed Machado gets cold at some point, eh?
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