Can Freddy Peralta Succeed as a Starter?

There is some uncertainty at the back of the Milwaukee rotation heading into 2020, with three candidates likely battling it out for one spot. Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser are locked into the starting five, while newcomers Brett Anderson and Josh Lindblom appear to have an inside track at two of the remaining spots. Given the injury history of Anderson, and the uncertainty surrounding Lindblom in his return to the Majors, opportunities will likely arise throughout the year, if in fact, we even have a 2020 season. But to begin the campaign, it looks like there will be just one opening up for grabs from a group that includes Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Eric Lauer.

Today, we're going to take an in-depth look at the 23-year-old Peralta, who started eight games for the Brewers in 2019, but spent most of the year pitching out of the bullpen, where he recorded a 30.1% K% and 4.18 FIP.

Peralta came up through the Minors as a starter, and 14 of his 16 appearances with the Brewers in 2018 came in that role. He then began the '19 campaign in the rotation, but early struggles followed by an April shoulder injury left him on the outside looking in for most of the rest of the season. Peralta was a solid strikeout source in 2019, but overall, he put up a 5.29 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his 39 appearances. In his eight starts, his ERA jumped to an unsightly 7.07 mark, along with a 1.63 WHIP. So why would Peralta even be given another chance to start, much less be included in any sleeper discussion heading into 2020?

The case for Peralta

There are a few reasons for optimism, starting with the fact Peralta was much better for the Brewers in 2018, when he recorded a 4.25 ERA. He has also shown the ability to rack up a lot of strikeouts, whiffing 30% of the batters he's faced thus far in his big league career. While it's probably not too surprising that his K% is higher pitching in out of the bullpen, he's put up high strikeout totals as a starter as well:

Though he made just eight starts in 2019, the swing-and-miss stuff was on full display in a few of those. He recorded seven or more strikeouts three times, including an 11-K, zero-BB performance at Cincinnati, and a nine-K, zero-BB outing vs Miami.

Furthermore, the Brewers have already shown that they are committed to Peralta, having locked him up on a five-year-deal back in February. His role for the duration of the contract remains unclear, but this is a smart front office that obviously likes what they see in the young right-hander, and it would make sense for them to try him as a starter until he proves he's unfit to succeed in the role.

Peralta probably wouldn't have been able to handle starting over the course of a full 162-game schedule after tossing just 96.2 innings between the Minors and Majors in 2019. But with a shorter season, if we get one at all, Peralta should be capable of handling the workload if he shows he can perform well as a starter.

What needs to improve

There are a few ongoing concerns for Peralta, the most obvious of which is a propensity for handing out free passes. He did show significant improvement in that area of his game in the first half of 2019, when he walked 6.2% of batters faced. But the control problems resurfaced in the second half, when he had an ugly 18.5% BB%.

To be fair, Peralta did dramatically increase his strikeouts in the second half, when he was pitching exclusively out of the pen. During that time, he whiffed 38.9% of the batters he faced, leading to an identical 20.4% K-BB% in both halves. It's unreasonable to expect Peralta to maintain that K% if he's starting again, so he'll need to get the BB% back down in order to succeed on a consistent basis.

Another concern is that Peralta has shown a pretty limited repertoire. Most starting pitchers have at least three pitches they can rely on, while relievers can often succeed with just two offerings. Look at how heavily Peralta has relied on just a four-seam fastball and curveball to this point in his career:

Peralta does possess a very effective four-seam fastball that induced whiffs at a 29.5% clip in 2019, and he even bumped the velocity on the pitch up to 96 MPH in the second half. But as you can see, Peralta threw his four-seamer or curve on nearly 99 percent of his offerings in 2019, and the lack of a third pitch may have been what held him back as a starter.

Peralta brought his slider back in the Dominican Winter League, and was reportedly very happy with the results. The addition of the slider may be just what he needs to take a step forward, and to be more consistent with his results.

Peralta's price has been moving up a bit, as he has cracked the top 400 (387) in NFBC drafts since the beginning of March. Though his role is still to be determined, he's well worth the gamble at that point in the draft. Peralta offers more upside than most pitchers going around him, and could be a major bargain if the slider is effective and he can keep the walks under control. At the very least, he should be a solid middle reliever who contributes a healthy dose of strikeouts.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis