Catching Heat - What To Do With Fantasy Catchers

To be blunt, catchers in fantasy baseball have been a huge disappointment this year.  The lack of production from the position is leaving massive holes in some lineups and leaving owners scrambling to make up the difference. At the same time, there is not much owners can do when the position as a whole is down. Take, for example, Gary Sanchez. Coming into the season, he was the top fantasy catcher, went in the first round in some leagues, and was expected to be a sure thing. And yet, what has he produced? So far a .190 batting average, which at any other position would make him a must-drop. Instead, due to the power, and position context, he is still a must-start.

For this article, the focus is on two types of catchers: the names who might be worth a drop, and the unknowns who might be worth a shot. Where owners can trade the older players and add the younger, as there is not much to lose at the position. If selling a catcher who seems to have value, and owners can pick up other pieces, that is well worth the risk.

At the same time, there are many catchers not mentioned in this piece. If owners have one of the top players (Posey, Perez, etc.) and are riding slow starts, keep grinding. When even the top players are struggling, the average performances are fantasy all-stars. The biggest takeaway from catchers this year is that names are producing at the same level as no-names, so take advantage before others realize the same.

Catchers to Keep an Eye On

Brian McCann (C, HOU) - 36% owned

The starting catcher for the World Champion Astros, McCann was expected to be an anchor on this team. So far in 2018, he has been doing more harm than good in most roto leagues. In 39 games, McCann is slashing .215/.309/.339 with only four homers. Even more, the strikeout rate is up to 18% from last year’s mark at 14.5%. What is intriguing about the year so far is that McCann is actually getting the ball in the air a lot more. Last season he posted a 41.5 FB% and this year it is all the way up to 55.2%. That being said, the results have not been there, as he is on pace for 10 homers and last season he hit 18. McCann is a good reminder that launch angle and fly balls do not always lead to production. While there is nothing to say the approach has changed, could we also be seeing what happens when the bat slows down just a bit? At the end of the day, the 34-year-old catcher seems to no longer be the top fantasy play at the position and owners should consider looking elsewhere. At the same time, owners can sell the fly ball rate as a reason why there might still be value in the player.

Fantasy Replacement:

Max Stassi (C, HOU) - 9% owned

Stassi burst onto the fantasy scene earlier this season and has since cooled off since as evidenced by his low ownership rate. So far he has almost split the playing time with McCann, so the usual risks of playing time with the backup role do not apply here. At the same time, the production has been much better than McCann's with a .256 batting average and six homers. There is a lot of swing and miss in the profile with a K rate of 30%, but the .487 SLG makes up for that with production when he does make contact. A five percent jump in hard contact from last season, even if last year was only a short stint, bodes well for fantasy owners. If a catcher upgrade is needed, this might be the best option for power and playing time, and not just to replace McCann.

Chris Iannetta (C, COL) - 24% owned

An offensive catcher playing at Coors got fantasy owners excited, but so far the returns have been underwhelming. Through 43 games, he is slashing .236/.337/.407 and only has five homers. This is a 20-point drop in his batting average and is well below the power pace from last season. The issue is that even with a lower K rate, there is nothing here to support a rebound the rest of the season. Iannetta could be past his fantasy usefulness, and while not an immediate drop, should not be starting anywhere. Perhaps he is still an NL-only play but not much more. Other concerning pieces in the profile are a ten point jump in ground balls and ten point drop in fly balls.  Again, on its own it does not say much, but these are not good trends when there needs to be a bounce-back to make him fantasy worthy.  Unless things change, owners need to consider replacing Iannetta if they still hold him.

Fantasy Replacement:

Tom Murphy (C, COL) - 2% owned

Luckily for owners, there is another lottery ticket catcher about to get more playing time at Coors in Tom Murphy. A post-hype player who most owners will know, but few will own based on past seasons. This year at Triple-A Murphy is hitting about 40 points better than last season and is still showing good pop with 16 homers. The other key stat is that his HR/FB rate is up to 22%. If Murphy can continue this run of form, the major league environment should help keep those homers up. The concern will be playing time moving forward, but this is a player who could fall into production and help prop up a lineup. At the same time, the limited playing time might help owners concerning matchups and other supporting numbers.  While cliche, do not pass up a potential impact bat at Coors.

Jonathan Lucroy (C, OAK) - 43% owned

Lucroy has been an excellent offseason addition by the Athletics, but it seems that most of his impact is being seen on the defensive and pitch-calling side of the game. Pitchers seem to really like working with him and overall look like a much better staff. At the same time, Lucroy is no longer the 4.6 WAR player from 2016 and looks more like a 1.5+ player this season. The batting line is down to .262/.318/.355 with only one homer. The walk rate is down three points as is reflected by the low on-base numbers this season. What is most concerning about the season so far is that overall Oakland has been an above average offense, but Lucroy is still struggling. This might be the time to move on if he is still owned.

Fantasy Replacement:

Kevan Smith (C, CWS) - 1% owned

Kevan Smith has been recently recalled to Chicago and getting a run of games.  Still, Smith is relatively under-owned and looks to have a key spot on this team. In all fairness, Smith might not be a top prospect but could be a nice fantasy add in the short term at least. Only six games so far mean a small sample size, but the results so far have been promising to say the least. The batting average sits at .409, and the K rate sits at 4.5%. The numbers at Triple-A are up from past seasons, and with Castillo suspended for a while, Smith looks like a good bet to continue to get games.  Even better?  If owners are willing to look at a small sample, the last three games have been against Cleveland and the top of the rotation.  Avoid small samples, except when they are positive against Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger.

Mike Zunino (C, SEA) - 60% owned

2017 was a breakout year for Zunino with 3.6 WAR over 124 games. This season has not been as promising for the player and he currently sits as one of the worst ranked players in fantasy baseball. A significant reason why this year has been a step back seems to be the K rate, as it is back up to near 40%.  In addition, the walk rate is down almost four percent as well, with an overall drop in OBP from .331 last season to .269 this season. Without rushing too quickly to an overblown conclusion, it does seem that Zunino will always be a low-average catcher which might play but also should have owners looking for an upgrade where they can. Still, the power numbers are worth shopping and should look good to owners in need of counting stats. Of all the players on this list that owners can wait on, it could be Zunino. Just do not wait too long.

Fantasy Replacement:

Andrew Knizner (C, STL) - 0% owned

So far, 2018 has been Knizner’s best season to date with a slash of .333/.400/.444 at Triple-A after a strong showing to start the season at Double-A, where he hit .305/.376/.424 with two homers in 31 games. While the numbers do not show the power upside, contact has always been his highest graded tool and there is no reason for it not to continue moving forward. With the power jump that comes from any promotion to the majors, perhaps he can walk into 10+ bombs while keeping that average close to .300. If that is the case, all of a sudden he moves to a top fantasy catcher in a weak pool this season. The issue is that with Yadier Molina manning the plate in St. Louis it is hard to find playing time. At the same time, Knizner offers much more upside over fellow prospect Carson Kelley, and if there are injuries, he could be in line for a shot to play. The other rumor with Knizner is a potential move off the plate, but even then, he should keep the catcher eligibility for the time being. Knizner also pairs well in two-catcher leagues for Zunino owners, since the power is there from Zunino, and the average should turn the season-long line into a plus position.

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