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Separating legitimate breakouts from fluke seasons is one of the biggest components of fantasy analysis, and the unique structure of the 2020 campaign is making it more challenging than ever. Can you imagine making your final keeper decisions on June 1 in a normal year? That's going to be all of the information we have going into 2021.
It'll be an inexact science, but we can try to spot trends to point us in the right direction. For instance, Kevin Gausman of the San Francisco Giants has been an average starting pitcher since his MLB debut in 2013. He has a 22.1 career K% and a career ERA of 4.30. This year, he's sporting a 31 K% and 3.07 xFIP to go with a middling 4.43 ERA and 2-2 record. Has the 29-year-old former top prospect turned a corner, or is his 2020 success a mirage?
The answer is likely somewhere in between. Gausman is better than his 4.43 ERA might suggest, but still has a significant problem that will likely prevent him from living up to his sterling xFIP. He is currently rostered in 29% of Yahoo! leagues, and at least one manager in every league could probably use his services. Of course, that manager isn't necessarily you. Here is a more detailed look at Gausman's profile.
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What the Luck Metrics Say
The first step in evaluating any pitcher's performance is looking at his "luck metrics:" BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB. Some pitchers can control these variables to an extent, while predictable factors such as a club's defense can influence them as well. Still, outlying marks in any of the three are likely to regress over time.
Gausman is allowing a .307 BABIP this season against a career mark of .314, a difference that probably isn't driving his success this season. He also has a 70.7% strand rate against a career mark of 73.9%, suggesting that he has been unfortunate considering his strikeout spike. His 20.5 HR/FB is a career-worst, significantly higher than his 13.8% career rate. Allowing more home runs doesn't make you an effective pitcher, so we can conclude that sheer dumb luck isn't behind Gausman's performance.
Interestingly, the Giants play in a pitcher's park but Gausman's 5.40 ERA at home is considerably higher than his 3.48 mark on the road. This is almost certainly small sample size noise and adds further credence to the notion that HR/FB isn't predictive of anything after about a month's worth of games.
That said, Gausman's .467 xSLG isn't that much lower than the .472 slugging percentage he has allowed thus far. His .262 xBA is also substantially higher than his .245 BA allowed, suggesting that his BABIP deserves to be a little higher than it is. In short, these metrics do not provide the answers we're searching for.
An Improving Fastball
The biggest driver of Gausman's success to date has been his four-seam fastball. It has ranked about average over his career, recording a 7.3 SwStr% and 58 Zone%. It was better than that in 2019 with a 10 SwStr% and 58.2 Zone%, but the time he spent as a reliever made one wonder if he could repeat it as a starter.
Gausman's 40 2/3 IP this season have come nearly exclusively as a starter (his one relief appearance lasted more than four innings), so he hasn't had the benefit of airing it out for a couple of batters. His heater has still been amazing: 11.8 SwStr% and 71.9 Zone%. Better yet, all of the offering's peripherals are trending in the right direction.
Gausman is throwing harder than he did a season ago, dialing it up to 95.6 mph against an average of 94.2 mph in 2019 and 93.6 in 2018. He's also generating a lot more spin, averaging 2,326 RPM in 2020 against 2,250 in 2019 and 2,168 in 2018. Gausman has always enjoyed a high active spin rate, with 92.3% of his fastball's RPM contributing to movement this year. His improved spin rate means that his active spin is making more of an impact, giving Gausman a dynamic weapon with which he can attack hitters.
Repertoire Changes?
Gausman has been perceived as a two-pitch arm who combines a mediocre fastball with a great splitter. Now that he also has a great fastball to pair with his splitter, his breakout must be real right? Not so fast. The table below highlights what Gausman has been throwing this year according to Pitch Info:
Gausman shelved his slider last year, but he's brought it back in a limited capacity. Unfortunately, it still isn't accomplishing that much. Its 8.5 SwStr% is fairly low for a breaking pitch, and batters are seldom chasing it out of the strike zone with an O-Swing% of just 17.9. Its 40.4 Zone% isn't stealing many called strikes either, and RHB (who have seen 40 of the 51 sliders Gausman has thrown this year) have an xwOBA of .553 against it. It's a complete waste of a pitch.
Gausman has never featured a changeup, and Statcast suggests he still doesn't despite the info above. The diagram below highlights Gausman's pitch usage on Baseball Savant:
Judging from those percentages, it's likely that what Pitch Info is registering as a changeup is actually a splitter that doesn't have the bite it's supposed to. Per Pitch Info, Gausman's split has a 23.2 SwStr%, 27.4 Zone%, and 37.7% chase rate this season. His change is inferior with a 13.2 SwStr%, 37.4 Zone%, and 14% chase rate. There's no reason to throw that changeup on purpose if you have Gausman's splitter.
Furthermore, Gausman's splitter has a career chase rate of 44.3%, roughly seven points higher than its current mark. This could suggest that even the pitches Pitch Info interprets as splitters don't have quite the same action they've had in the past. It's still a great strikeout pitch, but appears to be trending in the wrong direction.
Conclusion
Add it all together, and we have a guy with a great high-spin fastball and an excellent split when it's working. Two great weapons are all it takes to post high strikeout numbers, so Gausman is likely to continue racking up Ks moving forward.
However, high-spin fastballs are generally easier to lift, and a mistake can quickly wind up in the cheap seats. Furthermore, splitters that don't have the intended bite tend to get crushed. Gausman is also pretty predictable with just two viable offerings. This gives him more blowup potential than other arms.
The upside is intriguing, but there is enough volatility here that Gausman can't be recommended for fantasy gamers trying to maintain their ratios. Likewise, there's no reason to roll the dice with Gausman if you're currently in first place. However, Gausman is the perfect guy to sign if you need to make things happen this month. After all, you're not going to climb from sixth to first without taking some risks.
Verdict: Champ (assuming you're the GM of a middling team looking for a spark)
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