RADIO
Last week, we looked at how West Coast players frequently become fantasy values because not everyone can stay up late enough to watch them play. The same principle applies to teams that fantasy owners expect to be utterly terrible. The 2018 iteration of the Miami Marlins is therefore a great place to look for potential bargains. For example, Magneuris Sierra has the potential to matter in all formats this coming season.
By contrast, a player who makes an extremely positive first impression can remain overvalued for years after the fact. The latest acquisition of the Texas Rangers, Matt Moore, fits this description perfectly. He was really intriguing as a rookie with a 95 mph fastball, but his underlying skills have eroded to the point of fantasy irrelevance.
How will these players fare on new teams in 2018?
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Magneuris Sierra (OF, MIA)
Sierra was one of the prospects Miami received in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and he profiles as a better fantasy player than MLB one. His most notable fantasy skill is his speed, which grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scale. He only went 2-for-4 in SB attempts over a 64 PA trial with the Cardinals last season, but ran an impressive 77% success rate (17-for-22) over 353 PAs at Double-A last year. The volume of attempts wasn't there, but he attempted 48 thefts (making it on 31 of them) at Single-A in 2016. He could be a significant SB asset if he finds his way on base.
As with other minor league speedsters, whether Sierra can hit or not with ultimately determine his playing time and fantasy value. He hit .317/.359/.317 in his MLB trial last season, but a 27.9% LD% and .391 BABIP on ground balls strongly suggest that his .413 BABIP is unsustainable. He consistently posted below average LD% marks in the minors, so huge regression is likely there. He runs well enough to consistently post .300ish BABIPs on ground balls, but Usain Bolt couldn't sustain a .400 mark.
Sierra posted a .323 BABIP at Double-A last year, a number that seems like a reasonable upside projection. He avoids fly balls like the plague (25.5% FB% at Double-A, 18.6% at MLB), helping him make the most of a favorable BABIP on ground balls. This logic flies in the face of the fly ball revolution benefiting other hitters, but his 39.7% IFFB% at Double-A and 81.4 mph average airborne exit velocity in his brief MLB tenure suggests that Sierra gains nothing in the air. His complete lack of contact quality means that he should be expected to post below average BABIPs on fly balls and line drives as well.
Fantasy owners usually want guys like Sierra to walk a lot, but opposing pitchers have no reason to let him. His 21.9% K% and 6.3% BB% (backed by a 12.4% SwStr% and 32.2% chase rate) were very impressive for a 21-year old rookie, while his Double-A plate discipline (16.7% K%, 5.7% BB%) suggests future plate discipline upside.
Sierra slashed .269/.313/.352 at Double-A last year, numbers that work in fantasy if they come with 30 SB. He also projects as a strong defender on a team with nothing but available positions to claim, so he could keep playing through an early slump. The expected cost is minimal, so why not gamble that Sierra is more Billy Hamilton than Joey Gathright?
Verdict: Champ
Matt Moore (SP, TEX)
Moore managed to toss 174 1/3 IP of 5.52 ERA baseball last year, and xFIP only liked him slightly more (5.10). Most teams would have pulled the plug on Moore's season long before he compiled a full season of innings, but San Francisco just kept trotting him out there. Your team ERA cannot recover from such a high quantity of low quality innings, making Moore completely unrosterable in all formats.
Moore lost a ton of fastball velocity last year (93.7 mph in 2016 vs. 92.3 mph last year), a fact that took a bite out of his K% (18.7% vs. 21% career). The velocity loss seems to have inspired Moore to throw fewer fastballs (58.4% to 46.4%) in favor of an experimental cutter (4.1% to 14.2%), but the new offering's 3.2% SwStr% is far from inspiring. The heater's 6.2% SwStr% is better, but not by enough to represent real upside.
Moore throws two secondary offerings: a changeup (13.7% SwStr%, 45.9% Zone%, 41.6% chase rate) and a curve (16.6% SwStr%, 38.6% Zone%, 45% chase rate). The curve could be a wipeout pitch, but Moore threw less of them last season (22.2% to 18.1%) in favor of changeups (13% to 16.5%). This suggests that Moore has fully embraced his pitch-to-contact approach, rendering any theoretical strikeout upside moot.
To be fair, multiple factors conspired against Moore in 2017. San Francisco's OF defense last year was a crime against humanity, giving Moore a .320 BABIP against vs. a .296 career rate. The team's -16 OAA ranked 29th in the 30-team league, making Texas's collective -5 (19th) look good by comparison. This had something to do with the BABIPs Moore allowed on fly balls (.161 vs. .122 career), but the fact that they were hit harder (93.5 mph average airborne exit velocity vs. 91.2 mph in 2016) and at more threatening launch angles (9% rate of Brls/BBE vs. 6.4% in 2016) assigns some blame to Moore as well.
Moore's grounders allowed also turned into base hits more often than they usually do (.282 vs. .263), but a .283 BABIP on ground balls in 2016 suggests that this was not a fluke. San Francisco's infield defense was a little better than average, with 1B Brandon Belt's stellar work (11 DRS) being negated by Joe Panik at second (-11 DRS). Brandon Crawford was good at short (seven DRS), while a rotating cast of third baseman were worth -2 DRS between them.
Texas's projected infield defense is more balanced but not necessarily better. Adrian Beltre had six DRS in limited playing time last year, but Joey Gallo is pretty bad (-4 DRS) when he fills in for him. Both Roughned Odor and Elvis Andrus were worth three DRS in the middle infield last season, and Gallo is roughly a scratch first baseman (-1 DRS) when not filling in for Beltre.
The ballpark switch also figures to be disastrous for Moore's fantasy value. San Francisco is where offense goes to die, posting an 86 HR factor for RHB and 75 for LHB last year. Both marks were the lowest in the league, keeping Moore's HR/FB at a reasonable 11.6% despite the improved contact quality against him. Arlington is the exact opposite, inflating home runs for both RHB (103) and LHB (105). Texas is also considerably more conducive to left-handed singles (108 vs. 98), presenting some BABIP risk as well.
Moore's road ERA last season was an unhealthy 7.22, a number that reinforces just how much he needed San Francisco's ballpark to maintain any semblance of respectability. Now in a hitter-friendly stadium and devoid of strikeout upside, even a $1 bid is a massive overpay for the twilight of Moore's career.
Verdict: Chump
