RADIO
This time of year, a lot of fantasy analysis is a simple reminder to look at your standings page. Trading Max Scherzer for Whit Merrifield and Mallex Smith is a terrible idea in terms of overall value, but if you stand to gain a lot of points in SB it could make sense for you. Working the waiver wire is similar, as adding a one-trick pony could be a prudent move if that one trick will determine the league champion.
That said, I've personally found actual leagues to be a little more complicated than the academic examples often cited by fantasy experts. For example, you might need to load up on HR and SB down the stretch. Outside of Oakland's Ramon Laureano (already scooped in four out of five leagues), it can be tough to find that combo. Might I recommend Tyler O'Neill of the Cardinals?
Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their expectations. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're seen as a Tier 3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're perceived as a Tier 1 pitcher. All ownership rates are from Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise noted. Let's take a closer look at O'Neill and Laureano, shall we?
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30% Owned
O'Neill has slashed .277/.302/.455 with five long balls and a steal in his 116 big league PAs this season, a line that's acceptable but not exciting. Fantasy owners are probably looking at his 39.1 career K% and .413 BABIP on the season and assuming that there's nothing to see here. While his average is likely to decline moving forward, O'Neill has the tools to win fantasy leagues in the second half.
If you need an infusion of power, O'Neill can provide it. The FanGraphs team gives O'Neill a 50/55 Game Power grade with a 70 Raw Power grade on the 20-80 scouting scale, suggesting serious oomph. He has also posted a FB% of 42.4 or better at every stop since first reaching Double-A in 2016, with a 44.1 career rate at the MLB level. His 31.8% pull rate on flies also lets him aim at the power alleys, making it easier to get a ball over the fence. In short, O'Neill boasts all of the theoretical power you could hope for.
O'Neill's MiLB resume also has tons of homers. He smashed 24 bombs at Double-A in 576 PAs in 2016, 31 between two Triple-A clubs in 2017 (557 PAs total), and 26 in just 273 PAs at Triple-A last season. The Cardinals didn't play him regularly at the big league level last year, but he still clubbed nine homers in 142 PAs. Clearly, O'Neill has been able to translate his theoretical power into actual power numbers.
Statcast also likes him, though it is worth noting that his power indicators were better in 2018. That season, he averaged 97.4 mph on his airborne batted balls, with an insane 22.7% rate of Brls/BBE. This season, both metrics are more middling (93.5 mph, 7.4%). Still, the fact that he was able to post those 2018 numbers suggests a fabulous power upside that deserves to be owned in more than 30% of leagues.
While many think of O'Neill for his power, his speed is also elite. He swiped 12 bases (two CS) in 2016 and 14 in 2017 (two CS), but only three on the farm in each of the two seasons since. He also has three bags in his MLB career. Despite the low volume of attempts, O'Neill's success rate has consistently been good, and his 29.9 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed ranks 8th among all MLB players. It's not hard to envision O'Neill having 20+ steal seasons in his future.
While O'Neill will almost certainly hit for power and could contribute stolen bases, his batting average is likely to be terrible for the foreseeable future. He has a 39.1 career K% in his 258 MLB PAs, with a 40.2% chase rate and 21.5 SwStr% to match. FanGraphs gives him a depressing 30/40 Hit tool on the 20/80 scouting scale, and he consistently posted K% marks in the upper-20 range in the High Minors. His 4.3 BB% also leaves room for improvement, though his walk rates were around double that figure in the minors.
Needless to say, O'Neill won't keep up his .413 BABIP either. His strong fly ball bent hurts his BABIP potential, especially when paired with his career 15.9 IFFB%. He's also not going to keep hitting .458 (!) on ground balls, though his contact quality (85.7 mph average exit velocity on ground balls), foot speed, and indifference to the shift (58.3 Pull% on grounders) should allow him to keep beating the league average. Baseball Savant has O'Neill pegged for an xBA of just .215, if you want an idea of how bad his average could get.
Still, a low batting average is a small price to pay for HR and SB potential in fantasy. The Cardinals have also hit O'Neill cleanup of late, optimizing his R and RBI totals. It's safe to conclude that nobody on your waiver wire has more fantasy upside than Tyler O'Neill.
Verdict: Champ (based on potential league-winning upside with relatively safe power numbers)
Ramon Laureano (OF, OAK)
77% Owned
Laureano entered the 2019 fantasy season as a popular sleeper candidate and has recovered from a slow start to post a .283/.333/.515 line with 20 HR and 12 SB (two CS). The scouting report on Laureano is almost the exact opposite of O'Neill's, with a strong hit tool (50/60 per FanGraphs) and little power (30/40 Game Power, 45/45 Raw Power). As such, it's kind of surprising that his homers exceed his steals at the moment.
Laureano's HR/FB has increased from 14.7% a season ago to 19.2% this, but it may have more to do with the new ball than anything else. His average airborne exit velocity is roughly the same (93.5 mph in 2019, 93.9 in 2018), while his rate of Brls/BBE has declined slightly (9.4% vs. 11.1%). He's pulling more flies (31.7% vs. 26.5%), but the real reason for his HR spike is more fly balls (39.2 FB% vs. 31.5%).
Laureano's FB% has been trending upward since he first reached the High Minors in 2016. He posted a 32.2 FB% in 148 PAs at Double-A that year, 35.8% in 513 PAs there in 2017, and 39.3% at Triple-A last season. While he initially struggled to lift the ball against MLB pitching, he seems to have figured it out. Laureano is probably a league-average HR/FB guy moving forward, but that's enough for a 25 HR pace if he maintains his current FB%. Just note that his .449 xSLG is significantly lower than his .515 slugging percentage.
Laureano's lower FB% could also reduce his OBP and limit his opportunities on the bases. His .343 BABIP on the season looks fine, but it's rooted in an elevated LD% (24.9%) and BABIP on line drives (.773). His grounders have been very good (.295 BABIP) thanks to above average foot speed (28.6 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed) and exit velocity on ground balls (86.3 mph), but his flies haven't been nearly as strong (.060 BABIP).
Laureano's plate discipline also hasn't been great thus far, with a 26.8 K% and 5.2 BB%. He didn't strikeout this often in the minors, but he seems to be swinging harder now than he did on the farm. At any rate, his 13.1 SwStr% is too high for a speed-based player, so he'll need to keep producing power numbers to make his current profile work. xStats say that Laureano has deserved a .264 average thus far, a troubling development when he is already disappointing in the SB category.
The A's have been hitting Laureano fifth lately, but he's had stretches of hitting in the bottom of the order this season. He's likely to be fine moving forward, but seems to offer little upside and possible regression in both his average and power numbers. As such, he's a safe, conservative play that makes more sense for a first-place team than one looking to charge up the standings.
Verdict: Chump (based on likelihood that he's played over his head to this point)
