RADIO
Shelby Miller made offseason headlines after commanding an ace's price tag in the trade market. There were plenty of critics, but everyone assumed he would be better than his current performance. Travis Shaw seemed likely to usurp the struggling Pablo Sandoval at some point this year, but injury has opened the door faster than anticipated. Sonny Gray has always been viewed skeptically by some in the analytical community, leading to preseason discussion whether this is the year he would finally fall apart.
All of that is a lengthy way of saying that actual baseball does a pretty good job of coming up with its own stories, often differing wildly from what we thought we would be discussing at this moment two months ago. At least we got Gray right.
Champs & Chumps
Travis Shaw (3B, BOS)
Shaw is helping Red Sox fans forget about Sandoval's bloated contract with a .306/.372/.529 triple slash line accompanied by six dingers and a trio of swipes. Honestly, it is a little more than originally expected from the 26 year-old. Is it real?
Shaw has been a consistent 20ish HR guy throughout his minor league career, coming within one of that number in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Last season he hit 18 between Triple-A and 248 MLB PAs, and his current power pace prorates to around 20 given a full season. It certainly appears as though 20 bomb campaigns are a realistic expectation moving forward.
Shaw's pop was buoyed by a 17.8% HR/FB in his short MLB sample a year ago, but it has fallen to a more reasonable 10.5% rate this year. Shaw hasn't missed a beat, however, upping his FB% from 42.7% last season to 46.3% this time around. His BABIP on fly balls is also a robust .275 after just a .133 figure in 2015, indicating that he is still hitting fly balls with authority. A few of those flies could start clearing the fence, giving Shaw some power upside.
Speaking of BABIP, Shaw's current .393 mark suggests that he may have sacrificed something to the luck goddess. Shaw does not possess a line drive stroke (career 19.4% LD%) and is not particularly fleet of foot, so he lacks the skill set to sustain an elevated figure. He also does not have a minor league history of high BABIPs the way some other players do. A normal .304 BABIP accompanied his .270/.327/.487 triple slash line a year ago, and that seems like a good expectation moving forward.
I think he can beat last year's .270 average without an inflated BABIP, though. Shaw is currently striking out at a 25% clip after posting a 23% rate in his 2015 MLB exposure. His SwStr% is 10.9%, however, just a tick above the league average 9.9% rate from a year ago. SwStr% is highly correlated with K%, and Shaw's does not suggest this many strikeouts. The rest of Shaw's advanced plate discipline metrics also hover around league average, so it's not like he needs to overcome a 60% Z-Contact% or something. Fewer strikeouts should boost his average to the .275-.280 range, making him a useful bat with 20 homers.
Shaw also has a minor league history of drastically improving his K% after growing accustomed to a particular level. In his first Triple-A exposure in 2014, he struck out 22% of the time. Repeating it a year later, he improved to a 16.8% K% before his MLB callup. Both samples consisted of more than 320 but fewer than 370 PAs, so they should be comparable. He did the same thing at Double-A before the Triple-A example above, so a MLB repeat wouldn't be a shock.
Shaw has a history of double digit walk rates in the minors, so OBP keeper league owners may want to keep an eye on him for the future. His three steals are nice, but he never ran much in the minor leagues (career best 12, mostly at High A) so don't expect too much speed. A .280 average with 20 HR is more than viable for fantasy purposes, especially if he can improve his usual batting order slot (6th). I don't think Boston requires Sandoval's services any longer.
Verdict: Champ
Shelby Miller (SP, ARI)
As if wearing the worst uniforms in MLB history wasn't bad enough, Miller is embarrassing himself with a 7.09 ERA and 1-6 record so far this year. Advanced metrics suggest that he'll get better, but not by much. Miller's FIP stands at 6.59, while his xFIP is 5.67.
When xFIP is the lowest ERA estimator, you know that an inflated HR/FB is probably in play. Miller's is 17.9%, so some positive regression seems to be in order. However, last year's 6.4% HR/FB seems too low, and a HR/FB spike is the predictable result of swapping Turner Field for Chase Field. Miller also isn't helping himself with an increased FB% (37.3% after 34.1% a year ago), so he figures to remain susceptible to the long ball.
For fantasy, Miller would need an awful lot of strikeouts to offset the power risk. Sadly, he barely gets any. His K% has declined to just 14% this year, and his previous full season marks of 19.9% and 16.6% do not inspire much confidence in a rebound. His repertoire is even more depressing, with the cutter's 8% SwStr% representing the best in Miller's arsenal. His walk rate has also exploded to 13.5%, leading to a nearly 1:1 K/BB ratio that won't even cut it in Little League, let alone the majors.
The biggest change in Miller's pitch selection is the near abandonment of his 2-seamer in favor of his 4-seamer, and some have ascribed his recent struggles to this switch. It is possible, but PITCHf/x has a hard time differentiating fastballs at times so reporting error could make it look more drastic than it is. It also wouldn't make sense for Miller to try to throw more fly balls in a fairly extreme hitter's park. Miller is also mixing in a change for the first time (7.5% usage), with disastrous results (.421/.500/.895).
Miller's BABIP against is .317, a little above the league's .300 figure. Based on Miller's history, however, Miller's BABIP is in the stratosphere - his career rate is just .277. Miller was never a strikeout guy, so suppressing BABIP via soft contact represented the entirety of his game. This made him a FIP-beater in the mold of Matt Cain, posting a lower ERA than xFIP in each of the previous three years. In 2013, a 3.06 ERA hid a mediocre 3.73 xFIP. 2014 saw a 3.74 ERA mask a 4.47 xFIP. In 2015, a 3.02 ERA obscured a 4.07 xFIP. History suggests that when a FIP-beater stops beating FIP, he's in trouble.
With a career 19.3% LD% and the suppressed BABIP it caused, Miller found success. His profile doesn't work at all if he has an elevated 22.7% rate. With no strikeouts, far too many walks, and a homer happy home park, Miller is toast. The adventurous could try to stream him on the road, where he has only allowed two of his 10 homers. I don't recommend it.
Verdict: Chump
Sonny Gray (SP, OAK)
As I write this, Gray is on the DL with a mild back injury. I'm assuming a full recovery, and will proceed with the analysis as if he was healthy. Much of what was said about Miller applies to Gray as well. He is an established FIP-beater that posted a 2.73 ERA against an xFIP of 3.69 a year ago. This year has not been as kind, with a 6.19 ERA. His K% is not especially attractive in fantasy (18.5%), and his HR/FB (17.4%) and BABIP against (.318) are both well above his career norms (10.1% and .273 respectively).
Lumping Gray in with Miller in terms of K% may seem a bit too far, as Gray posted an essentially league average 20.3% K% as recently as last year. He seems to have chosen not to get Ks, however. Gray's Ks in 2015 came on the back of his slider, which surged to 17% usage from 8.3% in 2014. This year, it's down to 9.1% again. As a result, Gray's overall SwStr% (9.7% to 8%) and chase rate (29.2% to 24.8%) are both down.
The slider has a 17.1% SwStr% and a 41.3% O-Swing% this season despite the decreased usage, making it Gray's best K pitch by far. The slider is the go-to scapegoat for pitcher injuries right now though, so Gray may be trying to move away from it. He has replaced it with a changeup (6.3% to 13.3% usage) that inspires neither with strikeout potential (7.2% SwStr%, 30.9% O-Swing%) or results (.286/.310/.393 triple slash against). In case you're wondering, the slider's .105/.190/.263 triple slash line is a lot better.
Without the slider, Gray's only plus SwStr% pitch is a curve that gets the whiffs (14.2%) but not the chases (32.1% O-Swing%) to be a real put away pitch. The rest of his arsenal is meh. He is also walking too many guys (10.8% BB%). Even if Gray returns to his FIP-beating ways, he'll have a hard time earning his price tag in most formats without Ks.
A 17.4% HR/FB seems too high for someone with a career 10.1% mark, but it is harder to explain than Miller's. Gray continues to hurl in a pitcher's park, and his worst HR game so far came against the Rays at the Trop - not a scary adversary most nights. His FB% is essentially constant, so I think he reigns in his newfound gopheritis eventually. Gray's elevated BABIP is also difficult to explain, save the loss of the slider from his repertoire. He continues to suppress line drives at an above average rate (17% LD%), and his IFFB% is actually up relative to last year (8.2% to 10.9%).
Gray seems a good candidate to rebound to what he was before, a guy with strong ratios but few Ks. Sparkling ERAs lead someone to overdraft him in most leagues, however, so I can't fathom why you would want Gray even if he rebounds. FIP wins these battles eventually, and Gray's time is coming.
Verdict: Chump
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