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It’s probably safe to say that the Cincinnati Reds’ roster will look much different come Opening Day – at least much different than it looked at the end of last season.
While it remains to be seen just what the Reds will do once the lockout is over, a number of veteran stalwarts are no longer on the roster. Outfielder Nick Castellanos and pitchers Mychal Givens and Michael Lorenzen all became free agents (Lorenzen already signed with the Angels), while catcher Tucker Barnhart was dealt to the Detroit Tigers. Elsewhere, starting pitcher Wade Miley was lost on waivers to the division-rival Chicago Cubs.
In a Cincinnati Enquirer article by Bobby Nightengale, published on November 3 about the Barnhart trade, Reds general manager Nick Krall was quoted as saying the following:
“…going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”
If Cincinnati continues to move veterans this winter for prospects and young players, they won’t be short on options or opportunities with a veteran-laden roster. While trades for players like Jesse Winker or Sonny Gray could have a significant impact on a playoff race in real life, moves involving those players could also be similarly impactful for fantasy managers.
If Winker, Gray, Tyler Mahle, or Eugenio Suarez are traded once the lockout is over, these are the best fits for them from a fantasy standpoint.
Jesse Winker
Best Fits: Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays
Winker absolutely feasted on right-handed pitching last season, batting .346 with a .428 on-base percentage, 21 home runs, and 56 RBI in 367 plate appearances against right-handed opposition.
While he struggled against southpaws (.176 average, .288 on-base percentage, three home runs, and 15 RBI in 118 plate appearances) last season, Cincinnati wisely positioned him at the top of the order for nearly all of his starts.
Winker saw all but six of his 485 plate appearances in 2021 batting either first or second in the lineup.
If the Reds end up trading him, his best fits from a fantasy perspective will be on a team that can slot in the outfielder at the top of their lineup.
A team that has enough quality in the outfield so as to utilize Winker less against left-handed pitchers might be ideal too, certainly from a fantasy manager’s perspective.
Winker’s overall 2021 stat line was impressive enough as is – 485 plate appearances, .305 average, .394 on-base percentage, 24 home runs – with nearly a quarter of his plate appearances coming against southpaws.
If he lands on a team that shrinks that percentage down further, it might only help Winker’s productivity in fantasy.
Because, if anything, the outfielder’s 2021 production looks entirely sustainable thanks to some elite showings in xwOBA (.420), hard-hit rate (47.1%), and barrel rate (11.2%).
Sonny Gray
Best Fits: Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants
The Rays, Tigers, and Giants are listed here, but Gray’s list of fantasy trade fits essentially extends to any contender with a spacious park.
A contender with a quality group of fielders probably wouldn’t hurt either, but at any rate, it’s the spacious parks where Gray might be even more effective.
The veteran is already adept at limiting hard contact. Since 2019 among starters with at least 350 innings, he’s allowed the sixth-lowest barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
He’s also logged the 18th-lowest ERA (3.49) and 11th-lowest HR/9 rate (0.98) during that span, all while pitching in the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark.
The Reds’ stadium, which has baseball’s highest park factor for home runs according to Statcast’s Park Factors, isn’t always the best place for pitchers.
Case in point, of the 40 home runs Gray has allowed since 2019, 26 of them have come at home. For what it’s worth, among starting pitchers with a minimum of 350 innings since then, the former A’s stalwart has actually allowed the seventh-fewest home runs.
Generally speaking, the 32-year-old has been a quality starter when pitching at Great American Ballpark since he joined the Reds prior to the 2019 season, but you can see how much more effective he might be if he was pitching half his games elsewhere.
Sonny Gray Since 2019 At Home: 186.2 IP, 11.04 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 3.71 ERA, 3.71 FIP
Sonny Gray Since 2019 On The Road: 180 IP, 10.15 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, 3.25 ERA, 3.43 FIP
The slight decrease in strikeouts and a slight uptick in walks certainly isn’t ideal for fantasy managers, but the difference in run prevention stats should help him considerably from a fantasy production standpoint if Gray is dealt to a team with a larger ballpark.
If a trade to such a team happens, his 176.93 ADP, per NFBC, will look like an absolute steal.
Tyler Mahle
Best Fit: Los Angeles Angels
Mahle, who like Gray has found plenty of success (in real life and in fantasy) pitching in one of the most home run-conducive parks in the league, would be an ideal fantasy fit on many of the teams that his teammate would.
Last season in ESPN standard scoring, head-to-head leagues, Mahle finished the year ranked as the 18th-highest scoring pitcher.
Leading the Majors in starts with 33, the right-hander pitched to a 3.75 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, 210 strikeouts, and 64 walks in 180 innings.
A move to Southern California could certainly help the starter improve on the finish.
The Angels scored 63 fewer runs than the Reds last season. In fact, 16 teams, including Cincinnati, scored more runs than Joe Maddon’s team. But Mahle would get the benefit of run support from a full-strength lineup featuring Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh, and Max Stassi.
So, the run support will certainly help.
Though as it happens, the Angels player who might help Mahle the most from a fantasy standpoint might not be Trout or Ohtani with all their potential for added run support. Or even Rendon.
It might be Stassi.
Mahle posted quality numbers when working with a strong pitch framer in Tucker Barnhart last season.
Tyler Mahle in 2021 with Tucker Barnhart at Catcher:
88 IP, 3.58 ERA, 106 K, 29 BB, 13 HR, .226 average, .298 OBP, .409 slugging percentage, .706 OPS.
He could also continue to thrive with a similarly quality pitch framer in Stassi.
The pitch-framing metrics for both catchers from 2021 are eerily similar. Barnhart had +5 runs from the extra strikes metric and a 49.4% strike rate while Stassi had +6 runs from the extra strikes number and a 49.9% strike rate.
Eugenio Suarez
Best Fit: Seattle Mariners
With Suarez, the strikeouts are what they are at this point. His strikeout rate spiked from 23.4% in 2018 to 28.5% in 2019 and has steadily risen ever since. It was 29% in 2020 and finished at 29.8% last season.
That, plus consecutive seasons with poor BABIP luck, have put a rather significant dent in Suarez’s fantasy value from a batting average standpoint. The walk rate and power numbers are still good, but it doesn’t help in fantasy when the slugger is hitting .202 and .198 in the last two seasons.
If the BABIP comes up a bit from where it’s been the last two seasons (.214 and .224), then there’s potential for the infielder to hit .230 or .240 with his usual outpouring of home runs. If that’s the case, he’ll easily outperform his current ADP (per NFBC) of 199.91.
What he really needs to thrive in fantasy is a constant stream of plate appearances in a good lineup.
That could easily come in Cincinnati with the Reds, but if the team continues to trade veterans, the most logical and ideal fantasy fit for Suarez in the event of trade is in Seattle with the Mariners.
Seattle’s vacancy at third base is well known at this point, and Suarez would provide the lineup with a much-needed boost in terms of home runs. Last season, 12 teams hit more home runs than the M’s. Furthermore, Seager finished with 35 of the team’s 199 homers last season. He was also just one of two Mariners to hit more than 20.
So, in short, the need is there.
Seager hit .212 with 35 home runs, 101 RBI, three stolen bases, and a .285 on-base percentage in 670 plate appearances last season. The veteran was ESPN’s 61st-highest scoring position player in standard, head-to-head leagues last season.
That kind of production seems entirely feasible for Suarez, and with his ADP near 200, he has the potential to provide some late-round value to fantasy managers if he’s traded to the Mariners.
