RADIO
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
The Indianapolis Colts saw defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus become the newest head coach of the Chicago Bears, but otherwise, they will still have many of the key coaching staff members from 2021. Frank Reich will return as the Colts' head coach and Marcus Brady will be back as the team's offensive coordinator. Gus Bradley is the only new coordinator and serve as the team's defensive coordinator in 2022.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Colts players' fantasy values in it.
The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value that the Colts coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Colts' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Colts' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to take a look at how former Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus's defenses performed during his time with the team. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new coaches are starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Defensive Coordinator: Matt Eberflus
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 22.63 | 241.63 | 90.5 | 62 | 5.36 | 1.56 |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 21.47 | 234.12 | 109.06 | 61.76 | 5.56 | 1.94 |
| Eberflus's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 65 | 22.22 | 240.51 | 99.98 | 61.92 | 5.50 | 1.65 |
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Frank Reich
Frank Reich has been the Indianapolis Colts head coach since 2018, after previously serving in roles as the San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator (2014-2015) and the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator (2016-2017). He's done a great job as a head coach thus far compiling a 37-28 record. Given his offensive background and role as the primary play-caller on the team, let's dive deeper into some of his team's offensive statistics over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator and head coach.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 34.5 | 261.63 | 1.5 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 30.65 | 211.06 | 1.59 | 3.53 | 13.18 | 0.06 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 129 | 36.00 | 252.71 | 1.76 | 3.02 | 9.37 | 0.08 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 25.56 | 117.69 | 0.94 | 7.13 | 8.38 | 57.25 | 0.31 |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 25.24 | 130.53 | 1.24 | 4.82 | 6.65 | 39.88 | 0.18 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 129 | 23.96 | 104.64 | 0.73 | 5.53 | 7.24 | 43.68 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 10.94 | 17.56 | 148.44 | 0.69 |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 10.41 | 16.76 | 128.47 | 0.94 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 129 | 11.51 | 18.86 | 143.16 | 0.90 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 5.13 | 7.44 | 55.94 | 0.5 |
| 2020 Colts | 17 | 3.76 | 6.06 | 42.59 | 0.41 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 129 | 5.98 | 9.02 | 65.78 | 0.65 |
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Marcus Brady
Marcus Brady has been the Indianapolis Colts' offensive coordinator since 2021 and served as an offensive coordinator in the CFL for the Montreal Alouettes (2012) and Toronto Argonauts (2013-2017). In this article, we will only include his NFL statistics, but you can find his team's offensive statistics during his time as a CFL offensive coordinator in last year's 'Coaching Matters' preview on the Indianapolis Colts.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 30.65 | 211.06 | 1.59 | 3.53 | 13.18 | 0.06 |
| Brady's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 30.65 | 211.06 | 1.59 | 3.53 | 13.18 | 0.06 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yards | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 25.24 | 130.53 | 1.24 | 4.82 | 6.65 | 39.88 | 0.18 |
| Brady's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 25.24 | 130.53 | 1.24 | 4.82 | 6.65 | 39.88 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 10.41 | 16.76 | 128.47 | 0.94 |
| Brady's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 10.41 | 16.76 | 128.47 | 0.94 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2021 Colts | 17 | 3.76 | 6.06 | 42.59 | 0.41 |
| Brady's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 3.76 | 6.06 | 42.59 | 0.41 |
Frank Reich and Marcus Brady's Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of his career, Frank Reich's passing offense has performed around a league-average level, averaging 36 pass attempts, 252.71 passing yards, and 1.76 passing touchdowns per game. Looking at just the career averages might be a little misleading in this case. In 2020, Reich's offense averaged 34.5 passing attempts, 261.03 passing yards, and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game with Philip Rivers starting at quarterback. In 2021 with Carson Wentz, it was even lower, with the Colts offense averaging 30.65 passing attempts, 211.06 passing yards, and 1.59 passing touchdowns per game. 2022 Matt Ryan is closer talent-wise to 2020 Philip Rivers than 2021 Carson Wentz, but if the last few years are any indication it's clear that this team will primarily be a run-heavy team.
Besides passing, it's also important to pay attention to the amount of rushing work a quarterback receives since it can be a bit of a cheat code in the fantasy football world. Over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller, Reich's quarterback room has averaged 3.02 carries per game.
Looking at the QB carries graph above, Reich has never given his QB room more than five carries per game in any season he's been an offensive coordinator or a head coach. Considering Matt Ryan is older and not a very mobile quarterback himself, this is unlikely to change during the 2022 NFL season. From a fantasy perspective, Ryan should be viewed as a streamer/QB2 going into the 2022 season.
Examining Frank Reich's running back rooms, he's done a pretty good job utilizing and getting production out of the group. Over the course of the 129 games that he's been an offensive coordinator or head coach, his running back room has averaged 23.96 carries, 104.64 rushing yards, and 0.73 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground.
Looking at this data it's clear that Reich's running back room will get a healthy number of carries as long as he's running the show. In terms of the distribution of carries, how often is it going to one player versus Reich rolling with a running back by committee approach?
For much of his career, Reich favored a running back by committee approach, but it was a completely different story in 2021 as the team gave Jonathan Taylor a lion's share of the carries. Given that Jonathan Taylor is arguably the best running back in the league, it's likely that the team continues to feature him as a bell-cow on the ground.
The final aspect we should look at concerning Frank Reich's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his 129-game career, Reich's running back room has averaged 7.24 targets per game which is above the league averages the last few years.
This receiving usage is encouraging to see and makes the Colts running backs a more intriguing buy – particularly for PPR formats.
Overall, it's clear why Jonathan Taylor is as close to a slam dunk 1st-round running back selection as you can get in the modern NFL. He has all the pieces to be successful – the running back-friendly coach, the offensive line, the quarterback upgrade, and most importantly, the raw talent. The only thing that could prevent Jonathan Taylor from having an RB1 caliber season is him missing time through an injury or a suspension ≥ which could also happen to any player in the NFL. Feel confident about using a top-five selection on Taylor for the 2022 season.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Reich has seen his wide receiver room average 11.51 receptions on 18.86 targets for 143.16 receiving yards and 0.90 receiving touchdowns per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
These career averages are a little lower than the NFL league averages over the last two years. Perhaps most concerning is the drop in wide receiver usage since 2019, with Reich's wide receiver room failing to go over 18 targets per game in any of the last three seasons. Based on this information, Michael Pittman and the rest of the wide receiver room may have more of an uphill battle to reach their potential than wideouts on other teams.
Finally, Frank Reich's career usage of tight ends is extremely encouraging. In his eight-year career as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, Reich's tight end room has averaged 5.98 receptions on 9.02 targets for 65.78 receiving yards and 0.65 receiving touchdowns per game.
Even with a decline in usage in recent years, Reich remains one of the more tight-end friendly coaches in the league. This makes the position battle between Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods, and Mo Alie-Cox an important one to watch going into training camp. If one of these players ends up dominating the pass-catching snaps at the tight end position for the Colts, they will be a strong TE1. Keep an eye on this situation and strongly consider using a late-round flier on a Colts tight end.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Deon Jackson, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Parris Campbell, Ashton Dulin, Keke Coutee, Dezmon Patmon, Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods, and Farrod Green
2022 Defense
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Gus Bradley
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 26.63 | 223.63 | 119.81 | 62.31 | 5.51 | 1.19 |
| 2021 Raiders | 17 | 25.82 | 222.88 | 114.29 | 64.88 | 5.20 | 0.88 |
| Bradley's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 207 | 23.36 | 227.60 | 115.86 | 64.19 | 5.36 | 1.31 |
Gus Bradley has been in an NFL defensive coordinator or head coaching role for over a decade, spending time with the Seattle Seahawks (2009-2012), Jacksonville Jaguars (2013-2016), Los Angeles Chargers (2017-2020), and Las Vegas Raiders (2021) prior to joining the Colts this past offseason. Above are a few defensive statistics from Bradley's teams over the course of his career.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Bubba Ventrone - Bubba Ventrone has been the Indianapolis Colts' special teams coordinator since 2018. Before that, he was a New England Patriots assistant special teams coach from 2015 to 2017.
QB Coach: Scott Milanovich - Scott Milanovich will be entering his second year as the Indianapolis Colts quarterbacks coach. He's been coaching since 2004, with his most recent coaching stops as the Toronto Argonauts head coach (CFL, 2012-2016), Jacksonville Jaguars quarterbacks coach (2017-2019), and Edmonton Football Team head coach (CFL, 2020).
RB Coach: Scottie Montgomery - Scottie Montgomery has been involved in coaching since 2006. This will be his second year as a running backs coach. Some of his most notable stops in the past are as the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers coach (2010-2012), East Carolina's head coach (2016-2018), and Maryland's offensive coordinator & quarterbacks coach (2019-2020).
WR Coach: Reggie Wayne - The Indianapolis Colts are moving on from Mike Groh, but will have a familiar face as their wide receivers coach – six-time Pro Bowler and Colts all-time great, Reggie Wayne. This will be Reggie Wayne's first year as a wide receivers coach, but he understands the position well from his experiences playing for the Colts from 2001 to 2014.
TE Coach: Klayton Adams - Klayton Adams has been the Indianapolis Colts tight ends coach since 2021 after previously serving as the team's assistant offensive line coach (2019-2020). He has previously coached tight ends at Sacramento State (2009), San Jose State (2011-2012), and Colorado (2013-2015).
OL Coach: Chris Strausser - Chris Strausser has an extensive coaching career that dates all the way back to 1989. He's been the Indianapolis Colts offensive line coach since 2019 and has previously worked as Washington's associate head coach/offensive line coach (2014-2016) and as an assistant offensive line coach with the Denver Broncos (2017-2018).
DL Coach: Nate Ollie - One part of the defensive coaching staff shakeup on the Colts will be at defensive line coach, as the team goes from Brian Baker to Nate Ollie. Ollie has been coaching for seven years with his most recent position as the New York Jets assistant defensive line coach (2021).
LB Coach: Richard Smith - The Indianapolis Colts will have a new linebackers coach in 2022, going from Dave Borgonzi to Richard Smith. Richard Smith has over 40 years of experience coaching football, including 34 at the NFL level. At the NFL level, he's been a linebackers coach for the San Francisco 49ers (1997-2002), Detroit Lions (2003-2004), Carolina Panthers (2009-2010), Denver Broncos (2011-2014), Los Angeles Chargers (2017-2020), and Las Vegas Raiders (2021) prior to joining the Colts. He also has served as a defensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins (2005), Houston Texans (2006-2008), and Atlanta Falcons (2015-2016).
Defensive Backs Coach: Ron Milus - The Indianapolis Colts moved on from their corners coach James Rowe and their safeties coach Alan Williams to bring in Ron Milus to coach the team's defensive backs. Milus has coached football for 22 years at the NFL level and 31 years overall. Prior to joining the Colts, Milus previously worked as a defensive backs coach at the NFL level for the Denver Broncos (2000-2002, 2011-2012), Arizona Cardinals (2003), Carolina Panthers (2009-2010), San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (2013-2020), and the Las Vegas Raiders (2021).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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