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Corey Seager posted an overall .305/.374/.502 triple-slash in his first three Major League seasons (2015-2017) and was widely regarded as one of the best young shortstops in baseball. However, Tommy John and hip surgery forced the former first-round pick to miss most of the 2018 season. While he was able to return to action in 2019, he got off to a very slow start and by May 12th he had an uncharacteristically low .227 BA.
However, from that point forward his production steadily improved and he started looking like the Corey Seager of old. In his next 93 games, he compiled a .290 BA, hit 16 HR, and had 70 RBI. Despite his strong finish, fantasy players exercised caution when it came to selecting him in 2020 preseason drafts.
According to 2020 Fantasy Pros consensus ADP rankings, he was the 18th shortstop selected in drafts hosted across six major fantasy sports providers. Ultimately, he was a draft day bargain. According to CBS Sports, Seager finished with the fourth-most fantasy points among shortstops in 2020.
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2020 Quality of Contact Improvement
What caused his production to return to pre-injury levels last season? Health was a tremendous factor. Seager admitted that he wasn’t feeling as strong as he would have liked during the 2019 season, and after undergoing two major surgeries that’s totally understandable. With a goal of restoring his health to pre-surgery levels, Seager took advantage of baseball’s extended 2020 offseason by focusing on a strength conditioning program.
Seager reported to Spring Training 2.0 in peak physical condition. His concentration on strength training paid off and was instrumental in helping to improve his overall quality of contact in 2020. Per Baseball Savant, he set career highs in Barrel % (15.8), Exit Velocity (93.2, eighth-best in baseball), Hard Hit % (55.9), and wOBA (.387). His 12.1 BRLS/PA% was the second-highest in baseball. Seager was aggressive at the plate, swinging at a career-high 55.8 % of the pitches he saw. However, at the same time, he was still disciplined enough to post the third-lowest strikeout rate of his career.
Seager has consistently hit for high average in his career and in 2020 he finished the season with a solid .307 BA. That was no fluke since his xBA was a robust .330. Seager also enjoyed better success against off-speed pitches in 2020 (.283 BA), compared to 2019 (.224 BA).
Early Preseason ADP
In comparison to the 2020 preseason, fantasy baseball players seem much more optimistic with regards to Seager’s fantasy future as we head into the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Based on ADP, he was the 10th shortstop selected in the TGFBI 2 Early Mock Drafts that took place in October, and as of 1.9.2021, he’s the seventh shortstop being taken in NFBC high stakes preseason fantasy baseball drafts.
Seager is a valuable fantasy shortstop who can help fantasy managers in the BA and HR categories, and with him regularly batting close to the top of the power-laden Dodgers lineup, he’ll also likely continue to score a ton of runs. The fantasy shortstop position is one of the deepest in baseball. The one aspect of Seager’s game that prevents him from being included in the top tier among his peers as one of the elites at the position is his lack of stolen base production. Five-tool fantasy shortstops like Fernando Tatis Jr., Trevor Story, and Francisco Lindor will continue to be drafted ahead of Seager this preseason due to their ability to consistently steal bases, a stat that fantasy managers will have to continue to chase this season.
2021 Outlook
Seager’s comeback season ended on an explosive note. As the NLCS and World Series MVP, he led the Dodgers to a championship, by batting .328, hitting eight home runs and both scoring and driving in 20 runs in 18 postseason games. All signs point to Seager being able to pick up where he left off last season.
He’ll be entering the 2021 season fully healthy and at 27 years-old he’s in the prime of his career. For those who believe it adds to a player’s motivation to have a big season, he’ll, be playing for a new contract in 2022. While there are several marquee shortstops who’ll also be free agents at the end of the 2021 season, he has the luxury of playing for a deep-pocketed Dodgers team. With approximately $43 million in salary potentially coming off the books (Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen will be free agents at the end of the season), the Dodgers should be in a good position to re-sign Seager.
For those rostering him in Dynasty leagues, if he does play elsewhere in 2022, don’t worry. Based on his home/away career splits, it shouldn’t affect his future fantasy production. For the 2021 season look for Seager to deliver the type of fantasy production that you’ve come to expect:
2021 Projection: .290 BA, upwards of 30 home runs, 90 runs scored and 90 runs driven in.
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