RADIO
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Welcome back RotoBallers! Tiger Woods had his best finish in five years losing by one stroke to Paul Casey (-10).
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
The PGA tour heads two hours northeast to Bay Hill in Orlando, FL. The par 72 course plays to at least 7,400 yards. There are four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. Three of the four par-5's range between 500-550 yards. There are also five par 4's between 450-500 yards, the most of any such distance. This is a less-than-driver course so many players will be able to hit 3-wood off the tee. Two years ago, Henrik Stenson said, he hit maybe on or two drivers all round. And due to the fact that players go 3-wood off the tee, they drive the ball five yards less than average. However, they hit the fairway at at a higher clip 66%, than the tour average, 60%. The most common approach is 200-plus yards and players get on the the green in regulation 63% of the time (the tour average is 65%).
The greens are Bermuda and firm. Last year, Paul Casey said, "they’re the best putting surface you’re going to see. But they’re treacherous, they’re tricky. There’s a lot of slope, a lot of speed on these greens. They’re not easy. But, boy, they’re wonderful."
While this course may have had an average cut line of +2.5 the past six years, the past six winners have had a score in the double-digits.
Past winners include Marc Leishman, Jason Day, Matt Every, Every again, Tiger Woods, and Woods again.
My custom stat model will be focusing on a five stats; Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green (30%), SG: approach (25%), SG: putting (15%), proximity 200+ (15%), and par-4 450-500 yards (15%).
The top-5 in SG:T2G the last six years have finished in the top-5 25 of a possible 30 times. As Matthew Fitzpatrick puts it, "I like that it’s quite penal off the tee and missing the greens. If you really hit it well tee to green you can shoot some good scores."
The top-5 in par-5 550-600 yards the past five years have finished in the top-10 20 of 25 times and top-20 23 of 25 times. The winner of the tournament has also been in the top five four of the past five years,
Henrik Stenson has the most total strokes gained at this event the past five years followed by Francesco Molinari, Keegan Bradley, Matt Every, and Jason Day.
My custom stat model will focus on the last 24 rounds played with an emphasis on average/difficult scoring, Bermuda greens that are medium/firm, and courses that are over 7,400 yards.
With the results, I keyed on the following players.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Jason Day ($11,800), Justin Rose ($11,500), Rory McIlroy ($10,700), Rickie Fowler ($10,300) and Tiger Woods ($10,000).
Day has not played since the AT&T Pro-Am over a month ago. In that outing he was T-2 and the week before won the Farmers. He won this tournament in 2016 and finished T-23 last year. This price is too high for me, especially since he hasn't played in over a month, so I'll only choose him for cash games.
Rose was tremendous last week finishing T-5. He's had a very good history at this event with a runner-up in 2013, a top 10, and top 15. He plays well on courses similar to this so he's another cash came option.
McIlroy has no business being priced this high yet again, however he's number one my custom rankings. I don't understand. He's been awful this year, but has a good history here and at courses similar. I guess I'll have him in a tournament lineup considering he'll likely be less than 10% owned like he has been three of his past four tourneys.
Fowler has been having an up-and-down year. He's alternated making the cut with missing it his past four tournaments. If that trend were to continue, he'd miss the cut this week. He was 12th last year here and has a nice history at Bay Hill. Plus, he's fourth in my rankings so I'll throw in him a lineup or two.
Woods is the Vegas favorite to win this tournament at 5-1. Those are absurd odds. It's the Tiger effect in full swing. People will bet Tiger no matter what the price is and it includes fantasy golf. He's been phenomenal the past two weeks, but he will be so highly owned that it won't be worth it to choose him.
Middle-Priced Players
Alex Noren ($9,200) - The Swede has been one of the hottest golfers on tour finishing inside the top-25 his last five tournaments, including two top-5's. He's 89th in my rankings, but sometimes you need to go with the hot player and that is Noren.
Henrik Stenson ($9,100) - I went all-in on him last week and he made one birdie missing the cut. This week he's my pick to win again. He's second in my rankings, and besides for being cut at Bay Hill last year, he had a T-8 in '13, T-5 in '14, runner-up in '15, and T-3 in '16. Throw out last year and Stenson loves playing here. Sometimes players need a week to warm up after not playing for a while (he hadn't played in a month prior to last week) and this week he'll be ready to roll.
Patrick Reed ($9,100) - How unlucky was he last week after his birdie putt on 18 to take the outright lead didn't make it over the ridge, rolled right back to him, and he ended up bogeying. Maybe it was karma for wearing Tiger's vintage red and black. Either way, he's played well on courses similar to this, but hasn't played here since 2014 where he was T-52. He's 39th in my rankings, but when I delve closer into the numbers, he gained 13 strokes last week in the T2G category, 8,4 in strokes gained approach, and 9.6 in proximity from 200+ out. Another thing I like, CBS Sportsline, who nailed last week's Tiger pick, loves Captain America.
Adam Scott ($8,700) - My rankings love him, he's third, and I think this is finally his breakthrough. He finished T-13 two weeks ago and T-16 last week, but he needs to play better on Thursday and Friday. He has yet to shoot a round in the 60's in the first two rounds in 2018 and then he has to dig himself out of a hole on the weekend. He finished third here in 2014 and T-12 two years ago.
Bubba Watson ($8,600) - Bubba's had a renaissance this year winning Genesis a month ago and finishing T-9 two weeks ago in Mexico. He's been under eight percent owned in his past five tournaments for GPP and cash games. His SG: T2G and SG: approach numbers have been great lately. He was T-34 last year at Bay Hill.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,300) - He was right up there last week until shooting a final-round 78. He's made the past four cuts here including two top-15's. I love how he's one of the best putters on tour and can sink those birdies all day.
Lucas Glover ($7,500) - He's made his past two cuts and was T-7 last year. He's played well on courses similar to this one.
William McGirt ($7,400) - He's been improving the past two weeks from a T-33 at the Honda to a T-16 at the Valspar. He has not played well here since a T-8 in 2013. His numbers have also been solid the past two weeks. He's trending upwards.
Low-Priced Players
Kevin Chappell ($7,300) - I'm not sure how his price is this low considering he hasn't finished outside top 30 in his past five events. He's also had two top-10's in that timeframe. He was runner-up here in 2016 and had a T-14 in 2014.
Danny Willett ($7,300) - Remember when he won The Masters two years ago? Neither do I. He's been unheard of since then, but I'll take a flier on him this week. He was T-29 in his only time playing Bay Hill in 2015.
Francesco Molinari ($7,300) - His finishes at Bay Hill since 2013; T-34, T-5, T-17, T-9, and T-7 last year. He was also T-25 two weeks ago in Mexico. Those numbers speak for themselves and this price is obviously too low.
Charley Hoffman ($7,100) - He was cut last week, but was a runner-up here last year. Hoffman is also eighth in my rankings.
Hudson Swafford ($6,900) - He's been cut at two of his past three events and has not had top-10 finish in 2018, but he likes to play here. He was T-11 in '15, T-36 two years ago, and T-10 last year.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
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