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Welcome back RotoBallers! Satoshi Kodaira defeated Si Woo Kim on the third playoff holf to capture the RBC Heritage, his first win on the PGA Tour.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the Valero Texas Open. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Valero Texas Open
The PGA Tour returns to Texas to AT&T Golf Course in San Antonio. Players will go from one of the shortest coursers last week to a course that plays to at least 7,400 yards. The course is a par 72 with four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. Players drive the ball 282 yards, the same distance as tour average. However, they hit the fairway at a lower clip here, 57%, than tour average, 61%. Players got to the green in regulation, at a lower percentage, 57%, than tour average, 65%. If they fail to get on them, no big deal. The scrambling percentage is the tour average, 57%.
The greens are Bermuda and have average speeds. Players three putt here 58% of the time, tour average is 55%.
Wind could play a major factor and has done just that in the past.
The last six years the cut line has been an average of +3.3.
Past winners have been Kevin Chappell, Charley Hoffman, Jimmy Walker, Steven Bowditch, Martin Laird, Ben Curtis, Brendan Steele, and Adam Scott.
Charley Hoffman has the most total strokes gained at this event over the past five years, 45, followed by Ryan Palmer, 38, Jimmy Walker, 31.75, Billy Horschel, 29.18, and Matt Kuchar, 29.01.
The more GIR's a player has, the better finish he will see. Players who perform well in SG:P and SG:APP also do well. With this being a long course, there will be many long approach shots.
My custom stat model will be focusing on five stats; Strokes Gained: putting (20%), SG: App (20%), SG T2G (20%), GIR's gained (20%), and SG: Par 5 (20%).
Shots were 150-175, 175-200, and 200+ out are the most common approach shots.
I looked at the last 36 rounds with an emphasis on moderate and heavy wind.
With the results, I keyed on the following.
I'm also going to start adding Vegas odds next to a player's name to give perceptive on how Vegas views them.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000; Sergio Garcia ($12,000), Matt Kuchar ($11,400), Charley Hoffman ($10,900), Ryan Moore ($10,200), and Luke List ($10,000).
Garcia is the betting favorite at 12-1, seventh in my custom rankings, and has not played since his disaster at Augusta. This will be his first appearance since 2010, and it's worth nothing he gave input on building this course. His T2G and GIR numbers are great and he gains 1.75 strokes in the wind. However, his putting has been really lackluster this year.
Kuchar is 14-1 to win and is 17th in my rankings. He's 6/6 in cuts made here, including a T-4 and a T-15. He gains nearly two strokes in the wind, an enormous number. His long-distance proximity numbers are not good, but last week was terrific from 150-175 out.
Hoffman is 16-1 to win and the all-time earnings leader at this tournament. He won here two years and had three top-15's in the past five years. He gains 1.3 strokes in the wind and is off a T-23 last week in South Carolina.
Moore is 25-1 and is off a T-16 at Harbour Town. He was T-18 last year and had another top-20 in 2012. His long-distance proximity shots from last week were not good, and overall are not good. I'll be avoiding him.
List is 22-1 the week and my top pick among these high-priced players. I watched him play for the first time last week and he can crush the ball. He can hit high fades, high draws and that's backed up in his numbers. Over the last 36 rounds, he's first in total strokes gained, T2G, ball striking, second in off the tee, fourth in around the green, and 10th in approach. He gains nearly two strokes in the wind and has had a great year thus far. He logged a T-3 last week, T-24 at the Houston Open, T-7 at the Arnold Palmer Inv., T-16 at the Valspar, and runner-up at the Honda. While he was cut last year, he finished T-29 two years ago. Oh, he's also first in DraftKings points over the last 36 rounds.
Middle-Priced Players
Adam Scott ($9,600) - I keep waiting and waiting for Scotty to break through, but he keeps burning me. He has not had a top-10 all year, so this price seems too high, but then you look at the lackluster field and understand why. He hasn't played here since 2011, T-23, and won it in 2010. He's second in T2G, third in ball striking, seventh off the tee and in approach. He also gains 2.5 strokes when the wind swirls. I'm banking on him breaking through this week.
Kevin Chappell ($9,300) - The defending champion was cut at his past two events, but should regain his form at a course he likes. He also plays great when wind strikes gained 1.5 strokes.
Chesson Hadley ($8,500) - He's made two of his past three cuts in San Antonio including a T-4. He registered a T-18 at the Houston Open three weeks ago and was T-7 last week. He's top-10 in total strokes gained, ball striking, off the tee, and leads in approach. Plus, he gains nearly a stroke in windy conditions.
Pat Perez ($8,400) - He has good overall numbers throughout. I was super high on him going into the Masters, but he was cut. He took last week off, but his last two times competing here, 2014-5, finished in the top-20 both times.
Martin Laird ($8,000) - His numbers are solid all around. He won this tournament back in 2013 and was T-18 last year. He's performed modestly at his past tournaments finishing T-26 at the Arnold Palmer Inv. and T-32 last week. He gains nearly a stroke in windy conditions.
Low-Priced Players
Stewart Cink ($7,100) - He's number one in my rankings, despite not breaking the top-15 all season. I'll go with him just based off my custom rankings.
Danny Lee ($7,100) - Last week I jumped on his bandwagon and he had his best finish all year, T-55. He's second in my rankings so how could I jump off the ship now?
Tom Hoge ($7,000) - His proximity numbers are outstanding, ranking in or near the top-10 in most. He's had okay performances the past two times out, T-60 and T-55.
Nick Taylor ($6,700) - He has surprisingly good numbers in my custom stats at this price. While he's missed the past four cuts, he has finished T-21 and T-22 the past two years at this event.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Be sure to look out for another article coming next week!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
