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Welcome back RotoBallers! Billy Horschel and Scott Piercy captured the two-man team event Zurich Classic of New Orleans by one stroke over Jason Dufner and Pat Perez.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the Wells Fargo Championship. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Wells Fargo Championship
The PGA Tour heads back to the East Coast to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC. This course plays to more than 7,500 yards, which is extremely long. And to make matters worse, this long course is a par 71. It has four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. Players drive the ball 286 yards, four yards further than tour average. However, hitting the fairway on this course is of the hardest on tour. Players split the narrow fairways 49% of the time, tour average is 61%. Players reach the greens in regulation, at a lower percentage, 62%, than tour average, 65%. If they fail to get on the greens, the scrambling percentage is, 56%, tour average is 57%.
The greens are Bermuda with very fast speeds. Players three putt here 70% of the time, tour average is 55%.
The last five years, the cut line has been an average of +1.6 (excluding last year because the tournament was played at a different course as Quail Hollow was hosting the PGA Championship. No stats from last year's tournament will be used).
Past winners have been Brian Harman (last year at Eagle Point), James Hahn, Rory McIlroy, J.B. Holmes, Derek Ernst, and Rickie Fowler.
Rory McIlroy has the most total strokes gained at this event over the past five years, 48.88, followed by Phil Mickelson, 48.62, Robert Streb, 22.94, and Gary Woodland, 21.88.
The more GIR's a player has, the better finish he will see. Players who perform well in SG:P and SG:APP also do well. With this being a long course, there will be many long approach shots. I'm looking at shots from 200+ out.
My custom stat model will be focusing on SG:P (20%), SG: APP (20%), fairways gained (20%), GIR's gained (20%), and proximity 200+ (20%).
I looked at the last 36 rounds with an emphasis on Bermuda greens that are fast/lightning.
With the results, I keyed on the following.
I'm also going to start adding Vegas odds next to a player's name to give perspective on how Vegas views them.
*I will not be mentioning any stats or referencing finishes for last week's Zurich Classic.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000; Rory McIlroy ($11,800), Justin Thomas ($11,300), Rickie Fowler ($11,100), and Jason Day ($10,200).
McIlroy is the betting favorite at 8-1, which is not good value at all. His last time out he had that disappointing final round at the Masters where he played himself out of contention. He's had four consecutive top-10's at this event (did not play last year) including winning in 2015. His numbers are fine, but will he be able to putt on these lightning quick greens? He struggled mightily on the greens of Augusta, and for that reason I will not be going with him. However, if you decide to go against me, it's good to know McIlroy has the most strokes gained at this event.
Thomas is 10-1 to win this week. He's had a remarkable season to this point, but I had hoped he'd play better at Augusta settling for a T-17. He recorded a T-7 in 2015 and was cut in 2016 in his only times competing here. JT is a long hitter who should have no problem gaining distance, but may struggle to find the fairway.
Fowler is also 10-1 to win. This will be his first time out since his solo runner-up at Augusta. He last played here in 2016 and finished T-4. My gut feeling is he will continue his strong play this week.
Day is 18-1. He's had a quietly good season. In four of his past five tournaments, he's been inside the top-20 (the other time was a T-22). He's been struggling with his approach shots, but is putting his strong.
This is a star-studded field. If you don't like any of these players and decide not to own them, there are plenty of other guys below.
Middle-Priced Players
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) - He's had a really quiet year. His last time out he recorded a 19th at the Masters. An interesting stat to know is Matusyama gains the most strokes during difficult rounds. He's made all three cuts here with a T-11 in 2016, and finished T-5 last year at the PGA played at Quail Hollow. But, when he misses a 3-foot birdie putt, I will probably lose my mind.
Phil Mickelson ($9,200) - His price may be low relative to his betting odds, 18-1. He's had five consecutive top-20's here including three top-5's. He's been playing well all year, but I'm nervous on a long course like this one, he won't be able to keep pace with the young bombers.
Tiger Woods ($9,100) - Ah, Tiger's back. We last saw him at Augusta where, for how often he played in the past five years, played well. And, my rule of thumb with Tiger, it's no fun to root against him so why not go with him?
Paul Casey ($8,900) - The Valspar Championship course has similar features to this one and Casey won that tournament more than a month ago. He was cut at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago which was his worst outing this season. He's such a strong player with strong numbers that he will rebound this week.
Webb Simpson ($8,400) - His numbers are solid all around. He missed the cut in 2016, but finished runner-up in 2015. He's off an eighth place finish at the Valspar, 20th at the Masters, and fifth at the RBC Heritage.
Alex Noren ($8,100) - His only time playing Quail Hollow was last year at the PGA where he struggled mightily finishing T-67. Besides for being cut at the Masters, he's had such a strong debut year on the PGA Tour that I believe he continues it.
Ollie Schniederjans ($7,400) - One of my favorite golfers on tour because he doesn't wear a hat while playing (reminds me of myself). He was cut here in 2016 and has not had a top-40 since the Phoenix Open, but is 13th in my custom rankings.
Luke List ($7,400) - The golf community was all over him before the Texas Open and then he obviously missed the cut. He was cut his last time times here, but I cannot ignore his performance before the Texas Open.
Low-Priced Players
Adam Scott ($7,300) - I keep waiting and waiting for his breakout week and have yet to see it. I've been on him every week I believe for the past month. I keep watching his price drop and drop and now he's a low-priced player. He's first in SG: App and GIR's gained. I'm hoping he plays like he did her win 2016 when he logged a T-16.
Vaughn Taylor ($6,900) - Recorded a T-10 in 2013, and T-35 in 2016. He was T-16 at the Texas Open two weeks ago. For this price, his numbers are solid and I love the fact that he can splits the fairway more often than not.
Michael Thompson ($6,700) - Overall has strong numbers. Had a T-11 in 2014, T-28 in '15 and cut in '16. He has not missed a cut since the Farmers.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Be sure to look out for another article coming next week on the PLAYERS Championship!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
