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Now Is the Time to Sell High on Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott came into the season as a consensus top-five quarterback in fantasy football. Through four games, the Dallas Cowboys QB has soared past those expectations, completing 68% percent of his passes for 1,690 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions. Currently ranked as QB1, Dak is on an absurd pace of 6,000+ passing yards on 800+ pass attempts.

With a franchise running back and a trio of talented receivers at his disposal, Dak has all of the pieces in place for elite production. He is also forced into shootouts because the Cowboys offense plays at a fast pace and their defense has struggled, allowing an NFL-worst 146 points on the season.

Despite this talented supporting cast and appealing team context, the time has come to sell high on Dak. His value will never be higher than it is now. In this article, we'll take a look at the offensive scheme, remaining schedule, and fantasy production to outline why you need to try and trade Dak while his value is at a season-high. We'll also provide a couple of trade offers that can guide you in your attempt to capitalize on Dak's terrific start to the year.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Offensive Scheme

Rotoviz: NFL Offensive Pace and Run/Pass Report (Top 10)
Team Offensive Stats, Point Dif: -7 to 7, Excluding Last 2 Mins of Half (Weeks 1-4)
Team GMs Plays Sec/Snap Pass% Run%
Cowboys 4 160 21.8 65% 35%
Cardinals 4 171 23.9 53% 47%
Titans 3 185 24.4 49% 51%
Washington 4 112 25.4 59% 41%
Falcons 4 111 25.5 59% 41%
Lions 4 168 25.8 58% 42%
Eagles 4 216 26.3 60% 40%
Giants 4 143 26.3 64% 36%
Jets 4 101 26.6 56% 44%
Bills 4 165 26.8 61% 39%

The Cowboys are playing at a much faster pace than any other team in football, taking 2.1 fewer seconds per snap than the second-fastest team. They are also airing it out 65% of the time, which ranks first in the NFL. While this has led to a ton of yardage and points, it has been taxing on the defense. This defense has regressed, partly due to a depleted secondary, but it's not as bad as it's looked so far.

Football Outsiders: Defensive DVOA (20-32)
Rank Team DVOA
20 Chargers 2.4%
21 Seahawks 3.8%
22 Bills 5.7%
23 Patriots 6.8%
24 Cowboys 7.9%
25 Falcons 7.9%
26 Packers 8.8%
27 Texans 9.0%
28 Panthers 9.8%
29 Lions 10.8%
30 Raiders 15.8%
31 Dolphins 16.0%
32 Jaguars 16.2%

Football Outsiders Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) analyzes every play to compare a defense with the league's baseline average, adjusted for the strength of each opponent. With the way the Cowboys have allowed points this season, you might expect their defense to rank in the bottom-five in the league, but that's not the case. This indicates that the fast-paced offense has left the defense out to dry, resulting in a 1-3 start to the season for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

We've seen the Cowboys hide a flawed defense by playing more of a ball-control style to great success in the past (13-3 in 2016, 12-4 in 2014), so perhaps we could see head coach Mike McCarthy opt to slow things down a bit. While Dak is putting up videogame numbers, the team isn't winning football games. Something needs to change here and I expect the Cowboys to try to lean on Zeke more in the coming weeks.

 

Remaining Schedule

Week Opponent PPG vs. QB
5 vs. Giants 19.6 (3rd)
6 vs. Cardinals 22.5 (T-14th)
7 at Washington 26.0 (T-26th)
8 at Eagles 21.4 (T-10th)
9 vs. Steelers 22.7 (16th)
10 BYE
11 at Vikings 22.5 (T-14th)
12 vs. Washington 26.0 (T-26th)
13 at Ravens 24.8 (T-23rd)
14 at Bengals 21.4 (T-10th)
15 vs. 49ers 20.9 (T-6th)
16 vs. Eagles 21.4 (T-10th)
17 at Giants 19.6 (3rd)

The Cowboys' remaining schedule ranks 24th for quarterbacks, including tough matchups in the fantasy playoffs against the 49ers and Eagles. Their schedule includes eight games where they project as favorites, including two games at home against the Giants and Washington which could end up as blowouts, resulting in more run-heavy game scripts. This is not a favorable schedule and when you account for a likely increase in rush attempts, you have a clear path to regression.

 

Fantasy Production

Rank Player PPG
1 Dak Prescott 31.30
2 Russell Wilson 31.23
3 Josh Allen 30.09
4 Kyler Murray 27.07
5 Patrick Mahomes 27.04
6 Aaron Rodgers 25.77
7 Tom Brady 22.37
8 Lamar Jackson 21.32
9 Ryan Fitzpatrick 20.07
10 Gardner Minshew 19.61

Despite leading the league in passing yards with 1,690 (364 more than 2nd place Josh Allen), Prescott is only slightly ahead in fantasy production due to a lack of passing touchdowns compared to his counterparts (nine TDs, sixth in NFL). This is because the Cowboys love to feed Zeke in the red-zone.

Red-Zone Usage
Player Inside 20 Inside 10
Ezekiel Elliott 17 ATT (3rd) 14 ATT (1st)
Dak Prescott 17 ATT (T-16th) 7 ATT (T-19th)

As we can see here, Dak is middle-of-the-pack in red-zone usage, which will affect his touchdown production. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen are three elite fantasy quarterbacks who each have more pass attempts in the red-zone. The Cowboys will likely continue to feed Zeke in the red-zone, so the incoming regression in yardage due to fewer pass-heavy game scripts is unlikely to be supplemented by an increase in passing touchdowns for Dak. We also need to consider that Prescott already has three rushing touchdowns in only four games, which is only three less than his career-high of six. This rushing touchdown rate is unsustainable, influenced by the two pass-heavy game scripts that Dak encountered against the Falcons and Browns. Dak also doesn't run as much as Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Murray, Watson, or Wilson, so that also caps his upside.

 

Outlook

Dak Prescott remains a top-seven fantasy quarterback for the rest of the season, but it's time to capitalize while his fantasy value is at its peak. A player to target in a trade could be Lamar Jackson, who's currently ranked as QB8 and could be acquired at a cheaper price. You might also decide to package Prescott with a player like Jerick McKinnon for a significant upgrade at running back, perhaps picking up a player like Josh Jacobs. You could even trade Prescott for an underachieving quarterback like Deshaun Watson plus a player at a position of need, like D.J. Moore or A.J. Brown. Capitalize on this selling opportunity and upgrade your team to guide you on your path to a fantasy championship.



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