RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 280
CURRENT ADP: ~310 overall
ANALYSIS: Jansen was a fairly popular sleeper candidate at catcher heading into last season, but investments from fantasy managers failed to pay off with Jansen batting just .183 with a similarly poor .671 OPS. Jansen managed to post a career-best .352 xwOBA that ranked eighth among qualified catchers and sat 40 points above his 2019 mark in 2020, though, qualifying him as a 2020 breakout for this article.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!Encouragingly, Jansen’s 2020 underlying breakout was primarily driven by a six-point increase in his walk rate, suggesting that he’s relatively likely to continue improving in 2021. Additionally, Jansen’s 35.5% hard-hit rate from 2020 was down from 40% in 2019, suggesting that he could enjoy some added power in 2021 as well. Additionally, Jansen almost certainly suffered from some significant bad luck in 2020, with a .244 xBA and only a .183 batting average. If he regresses to the mean, Jansen’s walk-based 2020 “breakout” makes him a kind of super-breakout candidate for 2021. Fantasy managers should be bullish on Jansen’s 2021 performance as a result, and he makes for an attractive draft target at his 309 ADP.
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