RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 280
CURRENT ADP: ~310 overall
ANALYSIS: Jansen was a fairly popular sleeper candidate at catcher heading into last season, but investments from fantasy managers failed to pay off with Jansen batting just .183 with a similarly poor .671 OPS. Jansen managed to post a career-best .352 xwOBA that ranked eighth among qualified catchers and sat 40 points above his 2019 mark in 2020, though, qualifying him as a 2020 breakout for this article.
Encouragingly, Jansen’s 2020 underlying breakout was primarily driven by a six-point increase in his walk rate, suggesting that he’s relatively likely to continue improving in 2021. Additionally, Jansen’s 35.5% hard-hit rate from 2020 was down from 40% in 2019, suggesting that he could enjoy some added power in 2021 as well. Additionally, Jansen almost certainly suffered from some significant bad luck in 2020, with a .244 xBA and only a .183 batting average. If he regresses to the mean, Jansen’s walk-based 2020 “breakout” makes him a kind of super-breakout candidate for 2021. Fantasy managers should be bullish on Jansen’s 2021 performance as a result, and he makes for an attractive draft target at his 309 ADP.
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