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DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (10/17/20) - MLB DFS Lineups

The Houston Astros have come all the way back from down 0-3 to tie the series up and force a Game 7 on Sunday. Can they pull an '04 Red Sox and get it done? They'll have Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound but all hands will be on deck for both teams as we get to witness the most exciting of all sports scenarios. The Dodgers are looking to stave off elimination themselves as they'll do battle in Game 6 and are down 3-2 in the series.

I'll be going through some of the best plays at each position on DraftKings with a GPP/tournament lineup build in mind. That's not to say that these players won't work in cash-game lineups, but we're looking to provide high-upside plays for the most part (it's more fun that way, anyway). As a reminder, it is best practice to stack 3-5 hitters from the same team for DFS purposes, so try to envision how the games will play out and build your lineups from there This mindset changes a bit in these condensed slates - use your best judgment but be careful not to put all your eggs in one basket. Utilizing unique lineup combinations (i.e the nine, one, two, and three hitters) is another great way to differentiate.

In this article, I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the DraftKings main slate on 10/17/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel and other sports too.  If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kringstad19

 

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Walker Buehler - SP, LAD vs ATL ($8,000)

Buehler has a 0-0 record with a 23/11 K/BB ratio over 13 playoff innings. That's a lot of strikeouts, but that's also a very concerning number of walks for a pitcher who had a small habit of it (7.5% BB%) in the regular season. He has also given up two playoffs homers, which was a thorn in his side all year as he holds a slate-high 1.7 HR/9. All that considered, Buehler still holds the highest upside among today's pitchers due to his slate-leading 28.6% K%, 12.3% SwStr%, and .178 batting average against. The Braves' projected lineup has six hitters with a strikeout rate north of 23% against RHP and they have the lowest implied total on the slate at 3.7 runs. Buehler may even be less rostered than he deserves to be thanks to his five-walk outing against the Braves in Game 1.

Charlie Morton - SP, TB vs HOU ($7,500)

I'm a fan of Morton as an SP2 on DraftKings today. He comes in as the cheapest pitcher on the slate, his team is favored to win, and we just saw him pick up 21.1 DK points against this same team in Game 2. His season-long 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP were awful, but he seems to have made an adjustment as his fastball has gained some juice and he has picked up 11 strikeouts in the playoffs compared to just three walks and one earned run. His 24.7% strikeout rate is good-not-great, but the 'Stros don't strike out much against RHP anyway. This play is more about Morton's potential to shut the offense down long enough to get the quality start, at least five strikeouts, and a chance at the win bonus.

Other options: Max Fried ($7,800)

 

DraftKings DFS Infielders

Freddie Freeman - 1B, ATL vs LAD ($5,200)

There are a few Braves bats to take a look at as one-offs, and they're all the players you'd expect. If I had to choose one, though, it'd be Freeman. He incredibly has put up at least 10 DK points in five of his last six games, including 14 DK points in each of the last two contests. He hit .373/.495/.733 with a .360 ISO and .499 wOBA against RHP this season. He also had a slate-low 12% K% and a slate-high 18% BB% against RHP this season. Buehler is a really talented pitcher, but he did struggle with the longball as he gave up 1.7 HR/9 and held a 17.9% HR/FB rate.

Brandon Lowe - 2B, TB vs HOU ($4,400)

Lowe is finally starting to come through for the Rays after struggling up to this point in the postseason. He has scored nine and 14 DK points in the last two games and he's starting to look more like the slugger who led the team with 15 home runs and an insane 17.5% barrel rate. His .369 xwOBA, .264 xBA, and .555 xSLG all led the Rays this season as well, and his .238 ISO against RHP is notable. McCullers Jr. is a fine pitcher with a decent strikeout rate, but his 34.9% Hard Hit % and .320 xwOBA against indicate that he can definitely be hit.

Yandy Diaz - 3B, TB vs HOU ($3,400)

I love me some Yandy as a salary-saver at the deep third base position. He may not even be in the lineup, so watch out for that. He hit .307/.428/.386 this season, but he's actually appealing due to his patience at the plate. He was in the top 4% of the league in both K% (12.3%) and BB% (16.7%). It's not exciting, but hey, the points still count for DFS purposes. Diaz's tidy .322 xwOBA further speaks to his penchant for getting on base, which he'll hopefully get the chance to do against Lance McCullers Jr. and company.

Other options: Corey Seager ($5,200), Alex Bregman ($4,600), Will Smith ($4,500)

 

DraftKings DFS Outfielders

Randy Arozarena - OF, TB vs HOU ($5,000)

Acuna is a fine "pay-all-the-way-up" option as well, but there's no way I'm going to leave Randy out since he hits a homer every time I recommend him. You know the deal with him by now: he's trying to go yard on every swing and the result is a hard-hit ball more often than not. He has six home runs in his last 10 games and he holds a .330 average and .983 OPS. McCullers is a fine pitcher who limits homers and flyballs, but he notably gives a lot of hard contact (34.9% hard hit%) and can struggle with walks (8.8% BB%). Arozarena's likely to get zero fastballs and a bunch of junk, but one mistake from McCullers (or any bullpen arm) and Randy won't hesitate to send out another moonshot into orbit.

George Springer -  OF, HOU vs TB ($4,500)

Though I do like Morton today, a few Astros batters stand out as great plays on today's slate. Springer is head-and-shoulders above the others due to his amazing form and how his season-long numbers stack up against RHP's such as Morton. He hasn't posted a scoreless DK game in his last 10 contests and has had consecutive outings of 22, 14, and 11 DK points heading into tonight's pivotal Game 7. He has five homers in his last 10 games and a .929 OPS and .277 ISO against RHP this season.

Kyle Tucker - OF, HOU vs TB ($3,200)

Tucker, like Springer, is also in great form as the Astros have come all the way back from down 3-0 in the series. Tucker has scored at least two DK points in nine of his last 10 games and he just put up 18 DK points with a two-run homer in Friday's win. He has an impressive (team-leading) 44.5% Hard Hit% for the season, and his .455 xSLG isn't too shabby either. He had nine homers and eight steals for the year, so the power and speed combo is present. Tucker is at a really low price-point and could even be hitting fifth for a red-hot lineup - get him in there.

Other options: Austin Meadows ($3,600), Kike Hernandez ($3,000)

 

DraftKings DFS Stacks

I like the Rays as a stack today against McCullers Jr. He's not the best pitcher to attack because when his sinker is on, he's tough, but he has shown that he can be hit hard at times and he has had a bit of a walk issue. The Dodgers have the highest implied total on the slate and while I'm fine with one-offs and mini-stacks, I'd hesitate to get too much exposure to the high-priced bats as a few of them (Betts, Turner, Smith, Bellinger) don't profile well at all against LHP.

 

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Good luck in your DFS contests and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @kringstad19!

 



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