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DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/30/20) - MLB DFS Lineups


We had four games for an appetizer on Tuesday and now we get the main course with a full day of baseball beginning at 12:00 ET. There were a few teams that went with their usual number two starting pitchers in game one, so there's definitely not a shortage of arms to pick from on today's slate. Like on Tuesday, it's going to be difficult to pinpoint the optimal offense(s) to stack with each team giving their absolute best shots in terms of starting pitching and bullpen matchups. There are certainly more options on today's slate, though, and we'll be targeting a few stacks and one-offs that seems to be in good spots.

I'll be going through some of the best plays at each position on DraftKings with a GPP/tournament lineup build in mind. That's not to say that these players won't work in cash-game lineups, but we're looking to provide high-upside plays for the most part (it's more fun that way, anyway). As a reminder, it is best practice to stack 3-5 hitters from the same team for DFS purposes, so try to envision how the games will play out and build your lineups from there. Utilizing unique lineup combinations (i.e the nine, one, two, and three hitters) is another great way to differentiate.

In this article, I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the DraftKings main slate on 9/30/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel and other sports too.  If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kringstad19

 

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Trevor Bauer - SP, CIN vs ATL ($9,000)

Excluding Brent Suter's small sample size (13 IP), Trevor Bauer owns almost all of the top metrics among today's pitchers. His 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, and 2.92 SIERA all lead the slate, while his elite 36% K% is only behind Tyler Glasnow (38.2%). He's had an insane six starts with over 32 DK points this season. He holds some degree of risk as he has struggled to get keep the ball on the ground (34.4%) and is an extremely flyball-heavy pitcher (47.8%), which could be an issue against a Braves lineup that finished the year ranked second in ISO (.22&) and sixth in HR/FB (17.9%). However, they do strike out at a high rate (24.4%) and they're only projected for four runs on Wednesday. Bauer is the leading candidate for the NL Cy Young for a reason and there isn't a pitcher on the slate who comes in better form as he has a 46/5 K/BB and just five earned runs over his last five starts. Freeman and Acuna are going to be tough outs (against any pitcher), but give me all of the Bauer with the slate-high ceiling that he possesses.

Tyler Glasnow - SP, TB vs TOR ($8,400)

Glasnow has had a tough time with the longball this year as he's allowing 1.7 HR/9 and has given up at least one homer in 9-of-11 starts this season. That being said, his DFS outlook is sparkling due to an elite 38.2% K% (third in the MLB), 14% SwStr%, and 2.73 xFIP (third in the MLB. He has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game this year, though his 4.08 ERA may scare some people off in a matchup against the Baby Jays on Wednesday. They showed their lack of playoff experience in game one as they knocked in just one run and struck out 12 times in the game one loss. The Blue Jays didn't strike out a ton in the regular season, but Glasnow certainly benefits with the platoon-advantage over many of their best hitters, including Bichette, Hernandez, Grichuk, Guerrero Jr., and Gurriel. They're projected for just 3.3 runs today. Glasnow's strikeout-upside, win-equity, and affordable salary make him an attractive SP1 or SP2 target on today's slate.

Other options: Jose Berrios (MIN vs HOU) $8,200, Masahiro Tanaka (NYY vs CLE) $6,700

 

DraftKings DFS Infielders

Jesus Aguilar - 1B, MIA vs CHC ($2,900)

Call me crazy, but I don't think very many people are going to be flocking to get any Marlins in their lineups today. That could make this a tidy leverage spot, as opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks is good, but certainly not unbeatable. Hendricks has a 2.88 ERA that's backed up by solid predictive stats, but he has a low 20.3% K%, and his .240 batting average against comes in as the second-worst on the slate. Aguilar is a cheap way to get exposure here as he holds a .353 wOBA and should hit third in the order. He had a quietly great season (.277/.352/.457 with eight homers, 34 RBI, and 31 runs scored) and has three double-digit DK point games in his last six games played.

Justin Turner - 3B, LAD vs MIL ($4,800)

You're going to want to do what you can to get some Dodgers in your lineups as they have the second-highest implied total and arguably the best pitching matchup on the board, though they are quite expensive. The Brewers are rolling with Brent Suter to begin a bullpen game and while Suter has great numbers, he hasn't thrown more than four innings in any of his four starts this season. The Brewers bullpen is also a top-10 unit, but as we saw with the Yankees against Shane Bieber yesterday, the playoffs are a whole different beast. Turner is hitting .400/.438/.867 over his last seven days and has a .384 wOBA for the season.

Austin Nola - C, SD vs STL ($4,500)

Nola is one of the premier offensive catchers in the game as his .352 wOBA (sixth among catchers with at least 120 PA's) and .199 ISO (seventh) make him an appealing DFS target at the position. He projects to hit in the middle of the potent Padres lineup that's currently projected to score a slate-high 4.8 runs. Kwang-hyun Kim is a closer-turned-starter making his first postseason start. He has been really good against right-handed hitters this year, but his inexperience and low K% (16.1%) and SwStr% (7.2%) are sure to play a factor in how today's game plays out.

Other options: Anthony Rizzo (CHC vs MIA) $4,400, Joey Wendle (TB vs TOR) $3,600, Jorge Polanco (MIN vs HOU) $3,300

 

DraftKings DFS Outfielders

Kyle Schwarber - OF, CHC vs MIA ($3,800)

Schwarber has a great price on him because he simply hasn't been very good this year with an ugly .188/.308/.393 slash line. However, he does has 11 homers and a decent .204 ISO, and his 13.4% walk rate also plays an underrated role in DFS lineup construction. We're not targeting walks in DFS, obviously, but if we can have that kind of a "floor" to go along with a solid chance at a bomb, we take it all day. Sandy Alcantara has been decent through seven starts this year, but he's a RHP and this is a spot where Schwarber can come through for our lineups with the platoon advantage.

Randy Arozarena - OF, TB vs TOR ($3,700)

The 25-year-old has been very impressive since being called up as he has a .281/.382/.641 slash line with seven homers, 11 RBI, 15 runs scored, and four steals over just 64 at-bats. Small sample size be damned, he has an incredible .359 ISO and .439 wOBA. He's hitting especially well as of late (.400/.500/.867 in the last seven days) and gets the platoon-advantage over Blue Jays starter Hyun-Jin Ryu. He has a 1.478 OPS against LHP in his young career and though Ryu has been effective and he limits hard contact well, Arozarena is playing too well to not have interest in him at his price.

Wil Myers - OF, SD vs STL ($5,100)

Myers looks great as a potentially-contrarian pay-up option on today's slate. The Padres have the highest implied total on the board at 4.8 runs and the cleanup hitter Myers will have the platoon-advantage over Kwang-hyun Kim. Myers finished with a .288/.353/.606 slash line, adding 15 homers, 40 RBI, 34 runs scored, and two steals in an impressive campaign. He has a .318 ISO (.328 vs. LHP) and his .400 wOBA ranks 15th in the MLB.

Other options: Tommy Pham (SD vs STL) $3,600, Jason Heyward (CHC vs MIA) $3,800, Nelson Cruz (MIN vs HOU) $4,900

 

DraftKings DFS Stacks

The Dodgers (4.7-run implied total) and Padres (4.8-run implied total) look like the best, and safest, teams to stack up on today's slate. That being said, they'll likely garner the highest rostership percentage. There's going to be at least one stack that doesn't look great on paper but will pop off and be a difference-maker tonight, as we saw last night with the Yankees against Shane Bieber. Tonight's sneaky-stack call is the Minnesota Twins, who will be in desperation mode as they're looking to snap their record 17-game playoff losing streak against Jose Urquidy. Urquidy has made five starts and has a 4.69 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, 5.40 SIERA, 14.7% K%, and a low 35.6% GB%.

 

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Good luck in your DFS contests and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @kringstad19!

 



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RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 23rd, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Lineup Order Risers and Fallers: AL West 2020 Review

It’s the offseason and there are about to be a bunch of moving parts. This allows for speculation in terms of players gaining or losing playing time, moving up or down a batting order and much more. The idea here is to highlight some lineup situations for each team and some potential winners or losers... Read More


2021 1st & 2nd Year Players with James Anderson - Benched with Bubba (Episode 317)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) on episode 317. The guys will go over 30+ first and second-year players. They will discuss their current ADP's in the 2 Early Mocks, what to expect of the players in 2021, and much more. They also go over some listener questions, compare Juan Soto to Mike... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 21st, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 21st, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 20th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 20th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 54: 2 Early Mocks APD Player Debates - Benched with Bubba (Episode 316)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They go over some of the positions and look at players with similar ADPs and debate. Going around the diamond discussing some players people are high on and some they are down on with a... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 18th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 18th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 17th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 17th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


2021 Early Mock ADP Values & Reaches: WPC+ Videocast

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut prepare for the 2021 fantasy baseball season with a look at early mock draft results from the RotoBaller Expert mock. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller... Read More


Statcast Season Review: 2020 Barrel Leaders (Hitters)

The 2020 MLB season will always be one for the record books, even if everything that took place will have multiple asterisks attached to it. Evaluating Statcast numbers is a nice way to find hot and cold hitters, as well as underachievers and overachievers. Now that the regular season is over, let's reflect on the... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 16th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 16th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 15th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 15th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 14th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 14th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 53: 2 Early Mocks APD Trends & More - Benched with Bubba (Episode 315)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They dig into trends, some interesting risers/fallers, and much more. They also go over some listener questions at the end to keep the Fantasy Baseball information coming even in the offseason. Be sure to subscribe... Read More