RADIO
Shout-out to Abu Dhabi, as they are getting to hold another UFC event amid the ongoing pandemic situation. This weekend's event will start at 4am local time because it will be held behind closed doors, so it's not that anyone will notice and American folks will enjoy the show at a proper, prime time on the east coast. Advantages of Fight Island, I guess.
After a shallow and not-so-fireworky card last weekend, we're back to loaded times this week. Moraes (no. 1) and Sandhagen (no. 4) headline the event and both are close to a shot for Petr Yan's belt, so this one comes with high stakes attached to it. The second-to-last fight will pit Barboza against Stephens, who are not so close to the Featherweight champ in the ranks but still sound good as hell to have a great bout. Four more fights complete the main card, which features six (!) matches this weekend after the four held last Saturday. Yay!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Fight Night 179: Moraes vs. Sandhagen on 10/10/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Cory Sandhagen, $8200- vs. Marlon Moraes
These two are pretty close career-wise. Sandhagen debuted back in January 2018 compared to Moraes' first fight happening in June 2017. That six-month difference only translates to one fight of distance under the UFC banner, although it was enough to help Moraes fight for the belt against Henry Cejudo a little over a year ago... and drop that chance getting KO'd.
Sandhagen is 6-1 in the UFC but lost his last one to rising Aljamain Sterling in just 1:28 minutes of fighting time. Moraes bounced back from his loss to Cejudo by defeating washed-up Jose Aldo last December and is 3-1 since the start of 2018. Both fighters have finishes via KO and submission, but none relies a lot on grappling (Cory has the edge on attempts and landing rates, though).
When it comes to throwing strikes, Sandhagen has thrown more overall but Moraes has shown way more power and finishing prowess. Moraes floor is entirely dependent on an early KO or submission, so in a close fight as this one looks like it's going to be I'd go with Sandhagen to get the W.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Makwan Amirkhani, $7400- vs. Edson Barboza
Black vs. white. Yin vs. Yang. Barboza is the veteran of veterans of the promotion, more or less. He is entering the Octagon for the 23rd time in his career, and he's pretty much done judging by his current three-loss run going back to the start of 2019. He's 4-1 since 2018.
Amirkhani has fought 8 times in the UFC and is 6-2 with a 3-1 record since the start of 2018, two of those wins coming via submission. That is Amirkhani bread and butter, the grappling and ground game. Just two fights ago (although he lost) he attempted 19 (!) takedowns against Shane Burgos, and he's on a seven-fight streak with at least one TD landing.
Barboza is all about hitting, Amirkhani about manhandling foes on the ground. Barboza has looked terrible as of late and his best days seem to be way over. Amirkhani, although on really low SS volume, is a hit to score fantasy points if only because of his sweet takedown prowess. Go with Amirkhani, Barboza is done for good.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ben Rothwell, $8500- vs. Marcin Tybura
In case you haven't noticed the trend yet, let me make it clear: the UFC has definitely put together a card full of long-time-brawlers, am I right? Rothwell is another fighter with his first fight coming more than 10 years ago, in 2009. He was up and down, then strung four consecutive wins in the mid-10s, dropped three straight, and now is on a two-win streak. All in all, he's 2-2 since the start of 2019.
Tybura is not new to the promotion either, and he also enters this bout with a 2-2 record in the same span and also having won his last couple of fights. While Rothwell only has decision losses in that four-fight span, Tybura was knocked out in his last two losses. On the winning side of things, Rothwell was able to score himself a KO while Tybura only got his Ws via decision.
Heavyweights mean power, and the power here is all in Rothwell's warm body. He's attempted a hell of a lot more strikes, and although Tybura has the edge on the grappling game I'm betting on an early stoppage via KO going Rothwell's way.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dricus du Plessis, $8400- vs. Markus Perez
Freshman alert! Dricus du Plessis will make his UFC debut after winning two in a row prior to this weekend's fight. Perez, while not a grizzled veteran (debut in 2017), is 2-3 and has plenty of cage-time in his resume already. It should be mention that Dricus is stepping up for this one on short notice, too.
Perez has not won or lost two in a row ever, alternating Ws and Ls since his first bout. His two wins came via submission, and his three losses via decision. The two submissions came inside the first two rounds and six minutes of fighting time, which speaks high of Perez's prowess to turn any grappling sequence into a potential finish.
Du Plessis is no joke at finishing foes, though. He's won all his 14 bouts to date early, which is insane. It is rare to find a debutant favored by betting lines, but this is one of those times when putting your money on the freshman doesn't look crazy at all. Seeing another decision loss handed to Perez here, which would mark the first time in his career dropping two straight and leaving him in a very critical position in the promotion going forward.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alan Baudot, $6800 - vs. Tom Aspinall
This here is the ultimate no-info fight. Sure, Aspinall already debuted in the UFC last July... and won via KO in just 45 seconds throwing all of 10 SS and landing all 10 of them. That's it, that's all we have from him in the promotion.
Alan Baudot? His name is all we have in his case, as he's making his UFC debut this weekend. Super informative blurb, isn't it!? Well, looking at both fighters' careers, Aspinall is 8-2 while Baudot comes in at 8-1. Aspinall has been handed an 82 percent chance of winning this one over the debutant Baudot (22%).
Both men have finished or been finished by their opponents, which makes no sense but is true. There will be KO here, folks, and given the ultra-cheap tag of Baudot, I gotta go with the freshman and French debutant. Helluva risky play, with no one giving a penny for a Baudot win, but the upside is there and the KO is in sight.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Youssef Zalal, $8600- vs. Illia Topuria
Six months is all Zalal has needed to build a 3-0 record fighting in the UFC. Three fights, three decisions, and three times his hand has been raised to the sky after sound performances that have been steadily getting better each time he's entered the Octagon.
Topuria, on the other hand, will grace the cage for the first time here. That being said, the prospect is 8-0 in his pro career and looks like a real threat to break Zalal's perfect record so far. Zalal has balanced his striking with some grappling, and he pulled off 3 takedowns on 5 attempts in his last fight while attempting around 100 SS per bout. Topuria is all about grappling, takedowns, and chokes.
The problem Topuria will find with Zalal, though, is that the latter has yet to be submitted as a pro. Zalal has been incredible already and another W here would put him 4-0 in such a short eight-month span. Zalal is nowhere near the top of the division and is still a prospect himself, but if he keeps racking up wins it won't take long to see him breaking into the official top-15.
