RADIO
Conor McGregor is back! But hey, calm down for a second, and let's address this event how it should be done. It is not that McGregor is back, but rather that the UFC itself is back on our telly this weekend after two weeks of no fights as we went on a short hiatus last weekend. That sucked, but that was perhaps reasonable considering what is coming our way this Saturday when a bunch of unscared MMA pros steps into T-Mobile Arena's octagon to put on some serious shows.
Now, again, Conor McGregor is back! Mac is probably past his heyday, obviously, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have any juice left in him. Far from it. He'll be going against Poirier for the second time in a row after dropping his last one, and this will the fight that will name a champion between them as their affair is even at 1-1 right now. The likes of Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson will make an appearance before we reach that last fight of the evening. No belts on the line, but some serious fights out there for us to enjoy.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 on 07/10/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dustin Poirier, $8100 - vs. Conor McGregor
The last time those two met each other inside of an octagon wasn't even six months ago, as impossible as that sounds. Mac and Poirier had already fought in the UFC, but that fight took place all the way back in 2014--when McGregor destroyed Poirier in just 1:46 minutes of fighting time to score himself his fourth-consecutive W in a row in the middle of his run toward the chip. Not bad.
Poirier was eager for a rematch and he got his wish fulfilled in Jan. 2021 when he got to put his fists on Conor and actually defeated him to the tune of a KO just halfway through the second round of that affair. Poirier needed to land just 48 SS to knock the hell out of Conor, and with the series 1-1 this surely feels like a winner-takes-all fight between these two.
The first fight was so early in these two men's careers that it feels like an afterthought. The last one, though, not so much. Poirier connected on more shots than McGregor overall, landed his lone TD attempted, and just dominated on his way to a tasty 109 DKFP tally. Conor has alternated Ws and Ls of late getting back to his first L in 2016, and doesn't fight that much these days. Not liking his chances, folks. Conor's wave is past his peak, so it's all about banking on Poirier right now.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gilbert Burns, $7700 - vs. Stephen Thompson
Good fight between sad fighters, this one. Stephen Thompson and Gilbert Burns have been doing it for a long time now, starting their UFC tenures in 2012 and 2014 respectively. Thompson had the clear better run to kick things off, losing his second fight in the promo but winning seven of his first eight on his way to a title fight... that ended in a draw and later (on a re-do) on a loss. That was it for Thompson, who nonetheless enters Saturday on a two-fight winning streak.
Gilbert Burns comes to this even hotter. Sure, he dropped his last one when facing the possibility of lifting gold for the first time in his career, but Kamaru Usman was at the other end so it's not that he was expected to even smell victory. Burns got KO'd in February, but had won six straight before that on his way to facing Kamaru, five of those Ws coming no later than April of 2019.
Burns is the more complete fighter of these two, and that loss is definitely not too much of a blemish in his resume. Compared to Thompson, Usman is a serial killer. Burns can do it striking and on the mat, is adept at chasing takedowns, pulls them off rather nicely, and connects in lower volume but bonkers efficiency. Gimme Burns for a rebound-win here.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tai Tuivasa, $8400 - vs. Greg Hardy
I might not be sure of the fist that will be raised when all is said and done here, but one thing is clear to me: expect a knockout coming from either side. These two monsters have combined for 9 KOs in their total 16 fights, more than 56% of them. At the same time, in those 16 bouts, they have tried to land five combined takedowns while pulling the feat off just once. LOL.
Tuivasa enters this fight on a two-fight winning streak, both via KO and in the past nine months. That is significant considering the three-fight skid he had entered prior to that run. Hardy, on the other hand, dropped his last fight via KO after having two other fights in the year 2020 in which he got away with the W (one decision, one KO).
This might be close, but Hardy has been a fighting machine in his short-but-packed career. Since he first stepped into the Octagon in 2019 he has fought eight times compared to Tai's eight fights across four years. Truth be told, though, Tai has KO'd cold his two last foes while Hardy got KO'd his last time out. Not a chalky pick by any means, but I'd go with Tai for this one.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Irene Aldana, $9100 - vs. Yana Kutiskaya
How many fighters debuted facing the possibility of lifting a championship belt? Not so many, that's for sure. Yana was one of them doing it in March 2018... and obviously losing to actual-cyborg Cris Cyborg lasting all of 3:25 minutes before getting KO'd. Cold world. Kutiskaya rebounded, though, and since Oct. 2018 she's got a nice 4-1 record with two victories in a row in the past calendar year, the last coming in Feb. 2021.
Aldana had it rough at the start too with two straight losses, but since then she's moved onto better outings with a 5-2 record since the start of 2018 and 3-2 in the past three years. She enters this fight having lost her lone 2020 bout to Holly Holm in a decision, and the truth is that she's not fought that much of late, with just one bout in 2020 and none at all throughout the first half of this year.
While Kunitskaya uses both striking and grappling to her benefit, Aldana is a strikes-first-and-alone fighter. Forget about getting fantasy points from Aldana's takedowns, because those are just nonexistent in her game. That being said, though, her striking volume makes more than up for that lack of takedowns, so things are quite balanced out with her. That's what might mark the difference as Yana has been dropped twice already (once inside the first round) and Aldana could put her to sleep for the third time in Yana's UFC tenure.
