RADIO
It felt like it took forever, but we've finally reached the next numbered UFC event to take place this weekend in Jacksonville, FL, after more than a month since we got to watch the last one... with a two-week hiatus baked into the last month when we saw Blaydes and Daukaus going at each other! Come on Dana, we deserve better! But as always we can't really complain that much because 1) the schedule is fairly loaded on a weekly basis and 2) oh, boy, does 273 look great on paper or what!?
Allow me to get a little bit excited, folks. We're about to tune into this thing for a couple of title fights headlining the event, one of them even featuring two current champions* (a fake interim and a legit one) in Bantams Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan. The other one? Not bad with Alex Volkanovski defending his belt against the never-ending Korean Zombie in his second attempt at snatching the gold from a champ after he already tried all the way back in 2013 (!). And even better, we'll still watch the likes of Gilbert Burns, Kahmzat Chimaev, or Mackenzie Dern doing it come Saturday. Again, we just can't complain.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombi on 04/09/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexander Volkanovski (C), $xxxx - vs. Chan Sung Jung
Let me tell you a little secret. I have a database of UFC fights covering every event going all the way back to the very first UFC meeting. Do you know who ranks in the absolute 100th percentile in DKFP (min. 5 fights)? You guessed right, Georges St-Pierre... oh, and a certain Alexander Volkanovski. That's bonkers, folks. Volkanovski has yet to lose a fight since debuting more than five years ago in 2016. He's done it by the way of KOs (x3) and decisions (seven, including three straight to win and successfully defend the title most recently). Only once has Volkanovski scored fewer than 106.5 DKFP, which is basically unheard of, and the only time he did he defeated Jose Aldo in 15 minutes for a 77.5 FP bounty.
The Korean Zombie, while not on the same ridiculous level, has an edge on experience (10+ years doing it in the UFC) and a more rounded track record in terms of his ways of winning: it's been 4 KO victories, a couple of wins via sub, and most recently a decision against Dan Ige last June. The Zombie ranks in the 95th percentile himself, which is far from bad, and the 3-1 record since Jun. 2019 has him bouncing back and fighting for the title since he did so for the first time in 2013 (lost via KO). This could very well be the last shot at the gold the veteran Zombie gets, so it's not that he'll quit on it. That said, Volkanovski is just in a class of his own, throws massively high volume while landing nearly 60% of the SS he attempts, and can also do it on the mat in contrast to the Korean Zombie (3-of-5 TD in his last fight but 0-for-nil in the prior three bouts). Give me Volkanovski all day every day.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Petr Yan (IC), $xxxx vs. Aljamain Sterling (C)
If you thought it was going to be impossible for Dana and the UFC to pair the headliner with another fight worth the admission price, well, here we are. Sterling and Yan both rank inside the 92nd and 99th percentiles themselves in terms of DK fantasy contests, and as if that wasn't good enough, this fight is as spicy as they come with both men already having faced each other as recently as a year ago when Yan got DQ'd. That illegal blow allowed Sterling to become the first champ by the way of DQ, and with Aljamain unable to fight in Sep. 2021 it was Cory Sandhagen who fought (and lost) against Petr Yan in the bout that helped Yan lift the IC stripe.
If we look at the most recent precedent, Sterling was probably going to end up losing that fight against Yan (the scorecards were 29-28 in favor of Yan when things went south) and the numbers agree: Yan was 7-for-7 on takedowns and had landed 86 of his 137 SSA for a success rate of 63%; Sterling was 1-of-17 in takedowns (that activity, though!) and 97-of-230 on the striking side of things (42%). The thing here is that Yan shouldn't be disregarded at all just because he blew his fight against Alja with that DQ. Yan was the one snatching the title from Aldo in the first place, and although Sterling was clearly on an ascendant path (5-0 prior to the meeting with Yan), the Russian had not lost a single fight ever before that disqualification. Yan comes as the relative dog here, but it's the former champ all the way for me.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Khamzat Chimaev, $xxxx- vs. Gilbert Burns
Burns is nothing new to folks following the promo for more than a few years, is he? Gil has been around since debuting in 2014 and after a shaky start to his career in which he never strung more than three victories in a row, he was good enough to achieve that feat in a Dec. 2018 to May 2020 span only to drop his chance at the title against Kamaru Usman in his next fight via third-round KO. Ah, the unstoppable Kamaru had to be the one... Luckily for Burns, he was inside an Octagon just five months later defeating his last opponent via decision with a rather putrid striking outing only compensated by a 3-for-6 on takedowns boosted by nice grappling.
Chimaev, with a totally contrasting resume, has only fought four times in the UFC but with sound and solid results: 4-0 is the record, four are the times he finished foes early (KO x2, sub x2), and only once (in his debut) has he ever reached the second round (total fighting time of 6:12 in that bout, still). Chimaev, simply put, has been a one-man wrecking crew blasting people left and right. He has proved capable of striking as hard as anyone in the promo while also being good enough to go on a career-wide 4-of-6 at taking fighters down to the mat. Burns has a clear advantage in experience, but if we're honest that might not be enough to stop Mighty Khamzat next Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mackenzie Dern, $xxxx - vs. Tecia Torres
While Dern is entering the Octagon this weekend having lost her last fight last October, the truth is that she had snatched a couple of Ws in the prior two bouts she disputed while also being a positive 3-2 fighter since the start of 2020. Tecia has only known victory in that same span going 3-0, though it is also true that she had dropped four straight before that run and in the two years covering 2018 and 2019. Anyway, these two will fight each other on a kinda similar recent set of outcomes while also sharing close-enough skill sets.
Dern has gone for massive amounts of takedowns of late (15 in her last three fights) while only landing a couple, and in her two decisions (one lost, one won) she went for exactly 174 SSA every time, landing a diverging 47% and 28% of them. Torres has shown similar striking volume on a per-minute basis (in the 7-to-10 SSA/min clip) but she's landed blows on a slightly higher percentage. The takedowns are kinda similar, though, with large chunks of volume but not a lot of success at pulling those TD off. Given the three-fight winning streak and the recent TKO, I'd pick Torres here to hand Dern her second loss in a row.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Aleksei Oleinik, $xxxx - vs. Jared Vanderaa
This fight is eerily similar to that between Burns and Chimaev, only on the complete opposite side of the spectrum. Yes, that sounds contradicting, but it is not. The thing here is that Oleinik has fought 15 times under the UFC banner and is 44 years old already, while Vanderaa is just 30 and has only four bouts in the UFC. That's probably where the similarities end, though, as these two happen to fall on the wrong side of winning when it comes to their UFC records. Oleinik is just 2-5 in the past three years while Vanderaa has accrued a negative 3-1 putrid record since he first did it for Dana back on Feb. 2021. Ugh.
Can't call this a fight-for-your-life fight because I don't think Oleinik cares about calling-it-quits-once-for-all that much, but it might be a make it or break it affair for Vanderaa, who has got rocked twice in that four-fight span. When he wants/can, Jared is sublime: just peep at his 121-of-248 SSL fight against Justin Tafa last year for his lone victory in the promo. But that's not happened enough times to make it a guarantee to be Vanderaa's version this weekend. Oleinik is well known and can do a little bit of everything--albeit all of it on really low volume, as it's been the case for all of his early-finish-plagued career. Both guys have eaten two KOs from Aug. 2020 and could suffer that fate once more this one, though none of them have rocked a foe in the past seven years. I hate this fight with a passion for fantasy purposes, but if I had to pick a man I'd go with the vet Oleinik shutting Vanderaa's UFC door closed for good.
