RADIO
The UFC is back on American soil this weekend, and it is doing so by visiting a venue where it's never organized an event into: Moody Center in Austin, TX. With Frank Erwin Center getting bypassed this weekend, Moody will be the center of attention for all of us wanting more MMA fireworks even after a legendary UFC 275 a week ago in which two title fights turned into an instant classic (Jiri winning the HW belt) and an oh-so-close-what-could-have-been (Shevchenko barely retaining his title). Good for us, this thing never stops and won't do so until the end of August.
Of course, and even more, coming off a hella packed event in Singapore, this card was always going to be seen as a lesser one. That doesn't mean it's a bad one, mind you. The headliner is phenomenal pitting Kattar and Emmett (both top-7 contenders in the FW division and still trying to get a shot at the gold) against each other. Donald Cerrone is coming back to the Octagon after a 13-month hiatus and fighting for the 38th time in his UFC tenure alone. Kevin Holland will be trying to stay on the positive track. Joaquin Buckley will bring some power to the table. And much, much more that we'll be discussing below. Let's go!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Austin: Kattar vs. Emmett on 06/18/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Calvin Kattar, $8800 - vs. Josh Emmett
This is the type of non-numbered UFC event headliner typically reserved for main-card numbered UFC events. And that's the way it should always be. Kattar and Emmett are a notch above your average Fight Night performers, and their recent runs are sublime. Yes, Kattar is getting into this fight having lost one of his last two fights (against Max Holloway a year and a half ago, though) but other than that he's been fantastic. Emmett is on a four-fight winning streak and he looks unstoppable these days. There is a clear target on both men's future: a shot at lifting the FW belt, and you bet they'll kill for that opportunity starting this weekend.
While both fighters have teased some grappling/takedown chops, that's definitely not their calling card. That would be striking, with both performers averaging 13+ SSA per minute since 2020. In counting numbers, Kattar has launched a staggering 1,058 SSA in his last four fights landing 41% to Emmett's 431 with a rate of 43% in his past two. Of course, both fighters have KO'd two opponents each since the start of 2019 and are menacing as hell for the division they're part of. This surely looks like a coin flip because both men have been ridiculous and are entering the final stretch of their careers. I'd say Kattar has a very slight edge (thanks to the bonus DKFP he can get by scoring himself one or two takedowns) over Emmett, but it's definitely sooooo close between these two.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Donald Cerrone, $8300 - vs. Joe Lauzon
We were all expecting to watch Cerrone for the 38th time inside a UFC Octagon last April but that fight had to be postponed after the Cowboy suffered from food poisoning. Of course, that was never going to be enough to keep Donald out of the Octagon for long and that's why he'll be there next Saturday in Texas facing Joe Lauzon once and for all--another one to the long list of men he's gone against at some point, I guess. It's Cerrone's first fight in more than a year, but good for him he's immune to rust. There is no way in hell Cerrone retires without a W on his recent resume, and it's been six bouts in a row without that outcome (five losses, one draw). That will change at some point, because Cerrone.
Lauzon, though, won't make it easy for the Cowboy this weekend. Of course, Cerrone's hyper-long fight log dwarfs anything and everything, but Joe has done it 25 (!) times himself in UFC Octagons, which is a legit legendary tally. I would say he's been on the low recently and I might not be entirely wrong, but Lauzon's last four fights (including his most recent one, a KO-victory over Jonathan Pearce) took place in the 2017 to 2019 span with Joe not fighting again since Oct. 2019. Lauzon is a born finisher who did it on grappling through the first half of his career and on knockouts in the second one. He's eaten his fair share of late, though--his two most recent losses came that way. Cerrone hasn't pulled off a KO win since Jan. 2019 and both men look more prone to lose via KO than to actually inflict it, even if that doesn't make much sense. I have to side with Cerrone, though, because he's been more active recently and surely must be hungry to get that last W.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tim Means, $7300 - vs. Kevin Holland
While Kevin Holland had a nice run toward a potential title fight in 2020 (four wins, just one decision loss) all of that work and effort went to the trash can as soon as the calendar page flipped to the year 2021. Since then, Holland is just 1-2-1, and although his most recent fight ended in a solid KO win against Alex Oliveira in under six minutes of fighting time, there are doubts floating above Holland's head and his true talent and chances at the belt going forward. Holland is definitely not a grappler by trade, nor a takedown chaser, and he relies more on striking than anything else.
Tim Means, on the other hand, can do both things nicely and actually has better numbers on both fronts than Holland does these days. Means is boasting a three-fight winning streak covering nearly two years and three bouts all ending in a few judges' decision victories. Means is nearly 10 years older than Holland but has found his better shape and run of results in the past two years. He's attempting around 10 SSA per minute and has landed 5-of-18 takedowns since the start of 2019--not the greatest success rate, but quite an active approach to bringing fights down to the mat. Means has scored higher DKFP than Holland in nearly all of their most recent fights--even in lost ones--and has looked much better of late. Give me Tim.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joaquin Buckley, $7600 - vs. Albert Duraev
Fresh versus vet, maybe? Buckley can't be considered a Cerrone-level veteran, of course (who can?) but he's already fought six times for Dana and that means he knows what he's doing inside the Octagon and what he should and could and would need to expect once he steps into it. Duraev, on the other hand, debuted just last October with a decision win in which he looked solid as hell all things considered. Duraev launched a reasonable 140 SSA landing 71 of them for a 51% rate. He also chased takedowns like a madman against Roman Kopylov going for 9 of them but only landing one. But you know the fantasy sports golden rule: always chase volume.
Buckley profiles as a kill-or-get-killed type of fighter. He's 4-2 in the UFC with three KO wins, two KO losses, and just one victory via decision (coincidentally, his most recent one which took place last February). Three of his six fights virtually lasted fewer than seven minutes not getting past the second round, and two other KO-ending bouts he was part of happened before the 13-minute mark too. Buckley is a master of all crafts, though, as he's also landed 7-of-20 takedowns in his six-fight UFC career and is coming off a 5-of-8 performance in which he also posted high numbers on striking. Of course, Duraev's great first fight will lure fantasy GMs and put him in those lineups, but Buckley has sustained his level for a longer period and his stats and underlying numbers back his case up nicely.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gregory Rodrigues, $8500 - vs. Julian Marquez
Absolute stunner to open the event, folks. Seriously. Marquez and Rodrigues have only fought three times each in the UFC--and Marquez did so in Dec. 2017 without re-appearing until Feb. 2021--but those six fights were rather fantastic. Rodrigues is 2-1 in his year-long UFC career while Marquez is a perfect 3-0 with each of those victories earned via submission. Rodrigues has one KO and one decision to his name while the lone fight he lost (last February) came his way via decision.
Even though Marquez is 3-0 in submission wins, the truth is that he has yet to land a single takedown of his own having gone for three, then one, then none as a pro. Talk about a dangerous man right there. Rodrigues, on the other hand, is sublime at taking folks down (he's a career 7-of-12 fighter on the TD front) though he has yet to score himself a submission W. Both of these two can do it with strikes, too, as they've attempted 100+ of them in all but one of their five fights taking place since the start of 2021 with the lone outlier sitting at 90 SSA by Rodriguez last October. This could turn out into whatever result you can think of, seriously. Rodrigues has the better overall numbers backing his game, but Marquez has historically needed so little to pull off victories that he's a no-no to bet against. I'm doing so this weekend, though, siding with Gregory Rodrigues as I expect him to put the first L on Marquez's resume.
