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The UFC came back last weekend with everybody hyped thanks to one and only one fight: Conor McGregor facing Dustin Poirier for the second time in half a year, and the third time in their careers to declare the trilogy winner. Bummer of a fight, though, as Conor suffered a gruesome injury and had to accept the L via doctor's stoppage after the first round. That being said, the night was marvelous with three other KOs in the main card to go with a 15-minute decision before the main event.
We're back in Las Vegas this weekend, returning to the UFC Apex for the 31st edition of UFC Vegas. No belts on the line, and not astounding bouts on the cards, surely, but still a good night coming on Saturday with two top-14 Lightweight contenders trying to make it up the ranks to eventually have a shot at the gold (maybe on Poirier's belly then?) and Miesha Tate coming back to the Octagon after a four-and-a-half-year absence as she retired back in late 2016. Welcome back, Miesha!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 31: Makhachev vs. Moises on 07/17/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Islam Makhachev, $8500 - vs. Thiago Moises
Can I throw a question out there? Alright, so, is anyone going to stop Islam Makhachev any time soon? I'm pretty sure the answer is a resounding NO, but we'll see. Makhachev started doing this more than six years ago, yet he "only" has nine entries in his UFC resume, boasting a nice 8-1 record. He got KO'd all the way back in Oct. 2010, but he has known no defeat after that winning 7 in a row by all types of outcomes: one KO, two subs, and four decisions.
Moises is building a nice run too, so don't sleep on him. He had a rough start to his UFC tenure with a 1-2 record between Nov. 2011 and the end of 2019, but he's now on a three-fight winning streak with a submission to his name and a couple of decisions from Oct. 2020 on. He's got the edge--by far--on the striking side of fighting, averaging way more SS on a much larger volume than Islam.
This one projects as a grappling affair. Both men are trying to actively bring their foes down to the mat. Islam has averaged almost 4 TK per fight in the past three years landing more than half of them, while Moises is 1-of-3 on average in his six-fight UFC career. If this doesn't end early via submission, none of these two will rack up huge points. If it does, I'm on Makhachev's side to score himself his second submission win in a row.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Miesha Tate, $8200 - vs. Marion Reneau
Shout-out to Miesha for making her comeback after more than four years out of the circuit! Tate left the UFC in 2016 after dropping the title to Amanda Nunes in July and getting her second loss in a row four months later failing to defeat Raquel Pennington. Even in her short eight-fight UFC stint, Miesha got to defend/fight for the belt three times, winning once (against Holly Holm) and holding the gold after a submission win.
Marion Reneau is similarly tenured, starting her UFC career in 2015 and having fought 12 times since then. She's definitely a good fighter for Tate to come back with chances of getting her first win since March of 2016. That's because Reneau is 0-4 in her last four bouts, and her last W came back in February of 2018, three-plus years to this day.
Obviously, there are warning signs attached to both fighters' foreheads. Tate has been out almost five years and Reneau doesn't know how to win a fight to save her life. Call it nostalgia, call it being stuck in the past, or call it however you want. But I have to side with Tate for a comeback win this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Mateusz Gamrot, $8600 - vs. Jeremy Stephens
Talk about two completely opposite sides of similar lives. Jeremy Stephens, on the red corner, has been around for 14 years debuting in 2007 and fighting 30 (!) times already with the 31st bout coming this Saturday. Mateusz Gamrot would sign on the dotted line to have such a career after it started only last October. Only 28 more to go, Mat!
Stephens, truth be told, is clearly past his prime and it is not that he was that great even at the peak of his powers. Stephens never strung more than three Ws in a row, and the last time that happened was in a 2017-18 span. After that, though, Stephens has dropped four fights, two-and-two sandwiching a draw after his first meeting was Yair Rodriguez was ruled a no-contests just 15 seconds in.
Gamrot fighting sample is as small as it gets, with a decision loss in his debut and a KO win his last time out. Even on such a small glimpse, Gamrot has looked fantastic, landing 52-of-126 SS in his first outing with an unreasonable 5-of-16 takedown performance, and he then proceeded to finish his second opponent in under eight minutes going 63% on SS and 2-of-5 on TKs. Gamrot is the man to go with here as he moves the balance to a positive 2-1 record this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rodolfo Viera, $8700 - vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Not the ultimate fight-for-one's-life, this one, but definitely close to it and the prelude to the one that could actually be it down the road for either Vieira or Stolzfus. Viera has three fights in the UFC, one in each of the past calendar years including 2021 already, and is a 2-1 fighter so far in the promotion. Nothing secret about his man, who has been part of three submission calls going his way (twice) or against him (once) in the UFC. Even on his longest fight (9:26 minutes), he couldn't even reach 40 SS attempts. Damn.
Vieira was not much more active on the striking side of things in his lone fight back in November. In a 15-minute fight that ended in a judges' decision loss for him, Stoltzfus could only land 32 of his 63 attempted SS (putrid volume) and went 0-of-7 on takedown attempts. Yikes.
This fight sucks, and so does picking a potential winner. Viera has the larger resume, and a couple of early-stoppage wins to his name. That's the only thing saving his fantasy value these days, so I gotta go with him for this one. Anyway, avoid these two when building your lineup. Seriously. No need to go through the same pain I just endured looking at these two's numbers. Ugh.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Billy Quarantillo, $7700 - vs. Gabriel Benitez
Gaby Benitez has been a rather shaky fighter in the UFC. His first bout came all the way back in 2014 but he only has stepped into the Octagon nine times including that one in the past six-plus years. Not the most active of fighters, indeed. More worrying, though, is the fact that he's 0-2 since Aug. 2019 with his last W coming in May of 2018, quite some time ago.
Quarantillo, while also carrying an L to this Saturday's event, had won his prior (and first) three fights to sit at a nice 3-1 record going against Benitez. Quarantillo has done it on both striking and grappling with averages of 71-of-120 SS per fight, a 4-of-12 in takedowns landed and attempted in his four bouts combined, and wins of all three varieties--one KO, one sub, and one decision.
Even while he dropped his last one, this should be Quarantillo's fight given the look of the stats on these two's fightlogs. Benitez might find a way with his striking-prowess, but that's all he has to him. Quarantillo is way more complete, comes with a rather higher upside, and he could even get some bonus points if he can knock Gaby cold--nothing impossible considering it already happened to Benitez in his second-to-last bout.
