Year-in-Review: Dylan Bundy

“Just when I thought I was out, he pulls me back in!” –That’s what fantasy managers found themselves saying about Dylan Bundy this year, as the longtime sleeper finally woke up with career-best numbers across the board, highlighted by a 3.29 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and 4.24 K/BB ratio.

Going into 2020 Bundy’s NFBC ADP was 246.39, and the two pitchers directly ahead of him were Adrian Houser and Joey Lucchesi, both of whom posted an ERA north of five during the regular season. Altogether, Bundy was one of the best 2020 values at a shaky SP position, but drafters won’t have the same luxury of picking him up late again, as Bundy has catapulted himself into the elite starting pitcher discussion.

Given his tumultuous history, there should be a healthy amount of skepticism about the sustainability of Bundy’s success.

The Money Pitch

Anyone familiar with Dylan Bundy knows him for one thing, and that’s his physics-defying slider. The slider was money for Bundy again this season, as batters hit just .138 with a .200 SLG and a 22.8% SwStr rate against the pitch in 2020. Those numbers are awesome, but they aren’t too far out of the ordinary for Bundy. Batters are hitting just .164 with a .289 SLG and a 24% SwStr against Bundy’s slider all time. Bundy threw his slider a lot in 2020, with a 25% usage rate, but that isn’t too much higher than the previous usage for Bundy, who has typically hovered between a 22%-25% since introducing the slider in 2016.

So, Bundy’s slider is incredible and he uses it a ton, but we already knew that. Neither of those things changed in 2020. His elite breaking ball gives him a great strikeout floor, but it’s the rest of the package that seems to have fallen in place for Bundy.

Slider or Bust?

One thing Dylan Bundy was always missing was a reliable third pitch. He has been toying with both a curveball and changeup for years now, but struggled to get consistent success out of either. That changed in 2020, as batters struggled with Bundy’s changeup to the tune of a .220 AVG and .390 SLG against, with a promising .228 xBA and .348 xSLG against. That’s a huge improvement for Bundy and was the driving force behind his ability to reign in left-handed batters for the first time ever. For his career, lefties have pummeled Bundy for a .274 AVG and .343 wOBA, but in 2020 they managed just a .217 AVG and .295 wOBA against.

The adjustments to Bundy’s changeup actually began back in 2019, where he made the pitch into a true weapon instead of a change-of-pace pitch or a slider substitute for lefties. In 2019 Bundy reduced vertical movement by four inches, cut 1.5 MPH of velocity, and upped his changeup usage to 17.3%. One could argue the velocity drop is a symptom of Bundy’s overall velocity drop and not a deliberate change, and while that may be true, the results have unmistakably improved for him as the velocity and movement changed. These were incremental changes that largely went unnoticed as Bundy’s struggles were the main focus of analysis, but Bundy made real strides in a down year that paid dividends. Below are graphs charting his changeup movement and velocity year-by-year.

There’s a clear shift in 2019, and while Bundy’s changeup isn’t an elite pitch by any means, it looks like he might finally have an effective third pitch, something that’s eluded him for far too long.

Other than his changeup, Bundy found a way to become much more effective with his fastball in 2020. He held batters to a .241 AVG and .446 SLG with his fastball in 2020, which is a staggering improvement for him compared to 2019 when opposing hitters demolished the pitch for a .335 AVG and .645 SLG. Unlike his changeup, however, there don’t appear to be as many incremental improvements to Bundy’s fastball. In fact, the pitch looks to have declined in performance, as Bundy’s fastball sputtered to the plate at a just 90.2 MPH, tied for the 10th-lowest among qualified pitchers. Most of the other pitchers are either older than 30, left-handed, or both, which are pitchers that we generally expect to throw around or under 90 MPH.

We don’t typically want a 27-year-old righty to work with such poor velocity, or expect them to be successful.  With no significant changes in spin rate, average exit velocity, and just a slight uptick in average launch angle (25 degrees in 2019 vs. 30-degrees in 2020), it’s hard to see where this newfound success came from. The only area where he made a notable change was his fastball location. Here is a comparison of Bundy’s fastball heatmaps for 2020 (top) and prior to 2020 (bottom).

The zone is blood-red in 2020, and this shift shows up in the numbers as well, since Bundy had a 67.1% zone rate with his four-seamer in 2020, a career-high by nine percent. But wait, you’re surely thinking, wouldn’t a higher fastball zone rate lead to more hits against Bundy’s fastball? That’s the same quandary I’ve been pondering myself while looking at the perpetual baseball enigma that is Dylan Bundy. To get an idea, let’s have a look at some fastball outcome heatmaps.

Below are batting average heatmaps for Bundy’s fastball for 2020 (top) and prior to 2020 (bottom).

And here they are for slugging percentage.

And for BABIP.

We are seeing a lot more blue on similarly located pitches for Bundy in 2020, especially for BABIP and slugging. Obviously, the career numbers are more reliable because they contain significantly more data points, a gap that’s made even wider by the shortened 2020 season. The sample size is already small in 2020, but it’s made even smaller as we break up his individual pitches into small sections based on location. Because of this, we can’t hold these numbers up as evidence to prove that Bundy’s changes are legitimate or not, in fact, I think that would be impossible to say with the information available. However, the previous outcome heatmaps and the metrics of Bundy’s fastball suggest that his results were that of good fortune rather than improvements in skill.

Bundy did benefit from a strong defensive infield in Anaheim. Everyone knows Andrelton Simmons is a defensive stud, but David Fletcher, Anthony Rendon, and even Albert Pujols grade well defensively. Bundy’s defense was likely a contributor to his improved batting average and BABIP against last season, and even if Simmons leaves in free agency Bundy has a solid infield to look forward to in 2021. That’s a mark in Bundy’s favor, but it’s not enough for me to buy into these fastball improvements.

There is one change I hadn’t yet mentioned with Bundy’s fastball that could indicate long-term sustainable success is possible for him, and that’s his usage rate. Bundy cut his fastball usage rate to a career-low 41.9% in 2020, which is the first time he’d been below 50% in his career. Bundy’s fastball is simply not a good pitch, and deemphasizing it in his approach would be beneficial towards success.

One area where the fastball clearly overperformed was in the power department. Bundy’s fastball has always been hammered for longballs, but he only served up three homers with a .205 ISO against in 2020, helping him to an uncharacteristic 0.69 HR/9. Sure, he upgraded by moving out of Camden Yards and the AL East, but that alone wouldn’t eliminate the problem entirely. Bundy’s 3.75 xFIP in 2020 offers a more realistic baseline for expectations in 2021, as that metric predicts his ERA if he had a league-average HR/FB ratio. Bundy could trend a little higher than that even, since he usually has a HR/FB ratio higher than the league average.

2021 Outlook

Overall, a 3.70-4.00 ERA with a strikeout rate north of 25% is where I’m setting my expectations for Bundy in 2021. That puts him solidly in the top-40 starting pitchers with top-30 potential.

Looking at the early 2021 RotoBaller Mock (which you can check out in full with a recap by Pierre Camus here) Bundy went 92^nd overall and as the 32^nd pitcher off the board. That’s fair value for Bundy heading into 2020, and I’d be happy with him there, but not overjoyed or feeling as if I had gotten a massive bargain.

Bundy made some notable improvements in 2020 with his changeup, and getting the heck out of Baltimore certainly helped his progress. His ability to stick as a top-15 pitcher seems unlikely, and it’s clear that Bundy will never live up to the immense hype he once had, but if you can draft him outside the top-30 starting pitchers he should return value. Even if he’s volatile from start-to-start, he should produce good strikeout numbers and solid ratios.

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