Dynasty Risers and Fallers: Matt Ryan, James Robinson, Gus Edwards

Each week, this column provides you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.

Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.

This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)

Age: 35
Movement: Falling
Previous Rank QB17
Updated Rank QB25

Matt Ryan’s recent seasonal ranking history:

2018 (age 33) QB3
2019 (age 34) QB9
2020 (age 35) QB13

Sometimes the case is simple, and the trajectory is clear- let’s not overthink this one. Though Matt Ryan has been a rock-solid QB for over a decade, it’s time to bail on him in startup Superflex dynasty leagues. His startup ADP is QB12! 

Atlanta hired new Head Coach Arthur Smith and is presumably about to remake the Falcons. Atlanta currently owns pick four overall in the 2021 NFL draft. Credible mock drafts have Atlanta taking a QB at that spot. In today’s climate, QBs picked in the top 10 do not sit for a year like they once did 15 years ago. After the elite QBs are off the board, we advise drafting a QB2 with job security. Players going later than Ryan we prefer include Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Tom Brady. All of these players are locked in starters for 2021 and have a better-projected chance to start in 2022 than Ryan. 

James Robinson (RB, JAX)

Age: 22
Movement: Slightly Falling
Previous Rank RB13
Updated Rank RB17

We still love James Robinson. RosterWatch co-founder Byron Lambert was the first fantasy football analyst to identify James Robionson as a future fantasy star after he visited Jaguars camp, prior to Leonard Fournette’s release. We weren’t surprised when he had a big rookie season in 2020. One of our favorite eye-popping Robinson stats is that during his last season at Illinois St. he had more rushing yards than the rest of the team had rushing and passing yards combined!

The case to be cautious with Robinson is:

1. Lack of draft pedigree: Everything went perfect for Robinson in 2020. What happens if he fumbles twice in a game or has three games of mediocre production? Does new Head Coach Urban Meyer stick with him, or trot out another runner to spark the team? 
2. The Jaguars will add an RB2 and RB3 to their running back room. There is an abundance of free agent runners that have resumes of production. Players like James Conner, Kenyan Drake, Todd Gurley, and Jamaal Williams will all be on the market. None of these players will be a threat to take over as the starter, but can be irritating committees. 
3. The Jaguars could draft a rookie runner in the second or third round.

We are not predicting any of these outcomes, but they are something to keep in mind. Robinson is a fine draft pick that can produce again in 2021, but there are safer options in the RB12-15 range including Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, and Austin Ekeler. 

If the Jaguars fill their running back room with depth free agents like Brian Hill, Matt Breida, or Malclom Brown, we will boost Robinson’s rank.

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)

Age: 25
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank RB40
Updated Rank RB32

Heading into last year’s dynasty startup drafts, Ravens RB Gus Edwards was drafted outside of the top 200 players. An aging Mark Ingram along with then rookie JK Dobbins were the preferred options of drafters. Though Ingram was 30 years old, he was coming out of 2019, where he was very useful for fantasy, buoyed by his 15 TDs that season. 

In 2020 Gus Edwards doubled Mark Ingram’s rush attempts and firmly became the team's “thumper.” Edwards is a restricted free agent, which means the Ravens can match any offer Gus Edwards receives on the open market. The Ravens have signaled that they intend to do just that. Edwards finished as the RB37 in 2020, with an uncertain role to open the season. It is logical to bump him up the ranks with a projectable workload in 2021 and likely 2022. He is in the prime of his career and though he is not a player that has weekly winning upside; he is a secure RB3 with TD equity. We were impressed with Edwards when we attended Ravens training camp, and it’s clear the team likes him.

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