Early-Season Minor League Hitter Breakouts - Fantasy Baseball Prospect Risers

With almost one month of minor league games complete, many prospects have taken steps forward. This article highlights a small group of prospects likely to be big risers on midseason top 100 lists.

The following group shares important traits making their breakouts likely to stick and rocket them up midseason top 100 lists throughout the industry. First, they were already good pre-2022. Second, they have taken a step forward in 2022.

I tried to stay away from anyone that cracked a top 50 pre-2022, but these guys did crack some top 100s already. Still, all have plenty of room to rise by the time midseason comes around.

My Prospects Analysis Approach

I produce annual peak projections for prospects that leverage my aging curves and major league equivalencies. Major league equivalencies adjust minor league statistics for difficulty and environment, placing them on the same scale as MLB statistics. Aging curves adjust a player's statistics for aging growth.

I am no scout: I take a number's first approach when analyzing prospects, comparing a prospect's performance to the enthusiasm they generate from scouts. If the statistics and scouting reports align, all the more reason to be bullish on a player. If they disagree, some digging is required to find out which approach is more indicative of a player's talents.

You can find peak major league equivalencies for every minor leaguer in 2022 here and historical peak major league equivalencies here. I won't cite equivalencies directly in this article, but these are what I'm referencing behind the scenes.

Adael Amador, SS, Rockies

Last year, Adael Amador showed elite patience and contact skills as an 18-year-old in the Arizona Complex League. He also displayed some pop and good speed, swatting four home runs in 200 plate appearances and stealing ten bases. This year, he has gone wild at Class A California, with a stellar 16% BB and 11% K,  a swinging strike rate in the 95th percentile, and 6 homers in only 86 PA, all to the tune of a 182 wRC+.

Further, he has done all this as one of the youngest players in Class A; he just turned 19 in April. As 2022 is still early, the extreme aptitude for contact plus patience is particularly enticing, as contact and patience measures are more reliable than other measures in smaller samples.

James Wood, OF, Padres

James Wood was seen as one of the more high-risk/high-reward selections of the 2021 draft, tantalizing scouts with big power and speed, but also worrying them with potential contact issues. He debuted at 18 in the Arizona Complex League in 2021, showcasing skills pretty much as advertised: he hit the ball really hard, with an insane .569 BABIP and three bombs in 101 plate appearances, also adding 10 bases. He also struck out 32% of the time, while only walking 13%.

In 2022, he has flipped the script, remarkably walking more than he has struck out, with three home runs and a massive .316 isolated power in his first 46 plate appearances. His swinging strike rate is also a mere 7.5% this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among his peers. Wood is answering the questions about his contact ability and then some, and he continues to show huge power and good speed.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

Pete Crow-Armstrong was touted more for his outfield defense than bat when the Mets selected him in the first round in 2020. However, he walked more than he struck out and posted a 203 wRC+ in his brief 2021 debut at Class A, signaling his bat may have been underrated. His first 75 plate appearances in Class A this year have affirmed this sentiment (not to mention, FanGraphs was excited about a swing change observed in early 2022).

Armstrong has walked as much as he's struck out, with three home runs in 71 plate appearances, seven stolen bases, and a 200  wRC+. His swinging strike rate places him at the 96th percentile of Class A bats. It looks like his bat was quite underrated overall: Crow-Armstrong makes a lot of contact, has excellent patience, and has showcased good power and speed in his brief professional sample. The Cubs themselves have been a bit "taken aback by how good he's looked."

Given the aforementioned trio's early-season dominance and overall industry enthusiasm, you'll have to be somewhat aggressive to acquire them, but they'll make it worth your while.

Three Less-Hyped Quick Hits

Kyle Manzardo (TB) and Wes Clarke (MIL) are two offense-minded 1B who have shown an excellent blend of contact and patience in their professional careers spanning 2021 and 2022. Clarke is known more for generating huge exit velocities, while Manzardo's power isn't as hyped, but he did earn a rare 70-grade hit tool from FanGraphs this offseason.

Yankees 1B Anthony Garcia may have the most raw power in the minors, but he has historically had high strikeout rates. This isn't necessarily a problem for a guy with his power, but it also isn't a problem that he is walking more than he is striking out this year. At 21 in Class A, look for him to get called up soon and receive a more appropriate challenge at High-A.

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