TARGET: ~200
CURRENT ADP: 276
ANALYSIS: If you owned Rodriguez in 2015, you know how great he actually was for the majority of his starts, as well as how awful it was to start him in the four games he got shelled. Despite those four starts where he gave up six, seven, eight, and nine earned runs, he still finished with an ERA under four.
The most important piece here was that in each of his last seven starts of 2015 he gave up three earned or less (one earned in five of them). In case you missed it, there was quite the buzz surrounding how he was tipping pitches, leading to some (or all) of his implosions. It would appear this was corrected given his strong finish, as well as the general aura of a poised pitcher who doesn’t get rattled by a bad start or news like that.
One would like to see him cut down on the walks a bit, but he should be good to go for a full workload in 2016 (having pitched 170 innings combined last year) and will no longer have Hanley Ramirez as a defensive liability in left field. The upside is great even if he didn't improve on his mechanics at all, but one has to suspect that he will have taken some small steps forward, with the outside shot at a big step forward. 276 is a travesty, I'd much rather own Rodriguez over a guy like Mike Fiers (whose ADP is 214). Get it.
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