End of Season Report Card - Starting Pitchers

Back in late April, I published the early season report card. It was a look at how the top drafted starting pitchers began their seasons and what we could expect from them moving forward. At the All-Star break in July, we revisited them and updated their grades with a midseason report card. We also provided a 'rest of season' grade based on what to expect from them for the second half of the 2021 season. You can go back and read that here.

Considering drafts last preseason saw an unprecedented number of starting pitchers being taken early, fantasy leagues were won and lost more than ever based on how a team's early-round pitching performs. Now we can go back and revisit how they got on and give them an end-of-season grade. We can see if they justified their early ADP and assess if they have provided value by the season's end.

All ADP data is taken from NFBC (1,380 live drafts) and we're going to assess the first 12 starting pitchers taken according to their ADP. In true report card fashion, we'll have a quick look at their performances and grade their work compared to where they were drafted. We'll also offer a quick synopsis of what to expect from them in 2022. You will have noticed one missing Dodgers pitcher who I'm not going to discuss so we're actually just covering 11 starting pitchers.

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Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

ADP: 5.23
Early Season Grade: A+
Midseason Grade: A+
GP 15, W-L 7-2, IP 92.0, K 146, ERA 1.08, WHIP 0.54

It was a season of "what might have been". Absolutely devastating in the first half, then an elbow injury saw deGrom hit the IL and despite constant optimism that he'd pitch again in 2021, he never did. In September, we found out there was a UCL sprain/partial tear which the Mets were "managing" with deGrom.

deGrom's first 12 starts of the year saw him have a 0.50 ERA from 72.0 IP which included eight outings without allowing an earned run and just one earned run allowed in his other four starts. His 45.1% K% led all pitchers with at least 60.0 IP and only Josh Hader (45.5%) had a better K% than deGrom of any pitcher with ten or more innings.

It's easy to think deGrom was a recipient of good fortune but his underlying numbers backed his dominance. A 1.55 xERA, 1.61 xFIP and 1.74 SIERA all led MLB among pitchers with 90.0+ innings. Despite only making 15 starts and not pitching since July 07th, he still finished 12th among starting pitchers according to the ESPN player rater (standard 5x5 categories).

Obviously, those who drafted deGrom will have been frustrated with the injury and the fact the Mets kept so coy about the nature of the injury, leaving him sitting on fantasy teams IL for weeks. But if you combine all the replacement innings you would have had from whoever and however you filled in for deGrom, combined with the Mets' ace numbers, you would still have a pretty good cumulative season. He'll still remember this year fondly after recording his 1,500th strikeout, becoming the second-fastest to do so and aptly achieving it with a 100 MPH fastball.

End of Season Grade: B-

Expectations for 2022

There will likely be no other starting pitcher that will drive so much discussion come draft day. The upside of what he can do is obvious and is what has made him a first-round pick in the past. And given deGrom will likely be drafted no earlier than mid-late in the second round, there could be value in drafting him. But of course, there's a huge risk as any UCL issue could be season-ending at any moment.

Masahiro Tanaka managed to pitch through a similar injury without surgery and with success so it's not impossible to just rehab and pitch well. Every draft will have at least one person willing to take that risk on deGrom in the second round so it will come down to your risk aversion come draft day as to whether you'll be rostering him or not. Obviously, we still have a few months to get through and any news could completely change that.

 

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

ADP: 7.21
Early Season Grade: A
Midseason Grade: A-
GP 30, W-L 16-8, IP 181.1, K 243, ERA 3.23, WHIP 1.06

It was very much an up-and-down season for the Yankees ace. A lot has been said and written about MLB's clampdown on pitchers using foreign substances, and Cole has probably been included in those discussions more than anyone else. A look at his numbers before and after the clampdown (on June 21st) will reveal why.

	GS	IP	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	HR/9
Pre-June 21th	14	89.2	8-3	2.31	0.85	34.7%	3.6%	1.00
Post-June 21th	16	91.2	8-5	4.12	1.27	32.4%	7.5%	1.37

It may just be a coincidence that following the crackdown, Cole's numbers regressed but weren't dreadful. Among the 39 qualified pitchers (minimum of  162.0 IP) in 2021, Cole ranked 16th in ERA, tied-10th in WHIP and third in total strikeouts. Despite the Yankees offense not really clicking this year, Cole still managed to pick up 16 wins which were tied for third-most.

All of that helped Cole finish the season ranked ninth among starting pitchers on the ESPN player rater. Not quite what you expected from a first-round draft pick, but not the bust he's been made out to be by some. The fact he managed 30 starts as well (something only 40 pitchers managed to do) helps in fantasy as you're less reliant on finding starters off of waivers. And only 13 of those pitchers managed more than Cole's 181.1 IP.

Over the full season, Cole produced solid rather than spectacular numbers. But those strikeouts and wins kept him in the SP1 group all year and would ultimately prove to be league-winning for some fantasy teams. A good year, but it had the potential of being better.

End of Season Grade: B

Expectations for 2022

Cole's struggles after the foreign substance crackdown will put people off come draft season. While I don't hold Spring Training numbers in many regards for my drafts, I will be keeping a close eye on Cole to see if he has made adjustments that help him return to pre-June 21st Cole. But his 32.4% K% after that date would still be third best among qualified pitchers so he retains a solid floor wth his strikeouts.

Cole also had a 3.25 xFIP and 3.24 SIERA following the crackdown so an element of misfortune can also be attributed to his ERA being over 4.00 after June 21st. I don't see Cole being a consensus first-round pick in 2022 and probably won't be the first starting pitcher taken in most drafts, but I expect him to be a top-3 pitcher in next year's drafts and definitely won't make it past early-mid second rounds.

 

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 9.99
Early Season Grade: A
Midseason Grade: B+
GP 16, W-L 7-4, IP 96.2, K 134, ERA 3.17, WHIP 1.21

The third and final first-round draft pick among starting pitchers. And like deGrom, it was a season of 'what might have been' for Bieber. A shoulder injury saw Bieber hit the IL in mid-June and he only returned in late September to make two abbreviated starts to end the season.

When healthy, Bieber looked like the ace he's become in Cleveland's rotation. His 33.1% K% ranked seventh-best among the 146 pitchers with 90.0+ innings and at the time of his last start before hitting the IL (June 13th), he led MLB with 130 strikeouts. His 90.2 IP at that point also led MLB and he was on course to warrant his status as a first-round draft pick.

Then the shoulder injury came but at least he was able to return and pitch well when he did come back in September, which should ensure any lingering concerns heading into the offseason were dismissed. The one slight on Bieber was that 1.21 WHIP which was largely down to his walk rate. Only one pitcher on this list had a higher BB% than Bieber's 8.1%, which was only in the 52nd percentile among pitchers and a big jump from his 5.1% BB% he had prior to 2021.

The BB% actually ranked tied-93rd among the 146 pitchers with 90.0+ innings. The lack of control can't be blamed on the foreign substance crackdown as he hit the IL before then. And his two starts (both 3.0 IP) following his return in September saw Bieber allow no walks which should allay those concerns, albeit with the smallest of samples.

Given Bieber's WHIP, it's difficult to be 100% satisfied with his season prior to the injury and although the strikeout numbers were elite, everything else was just good. A full season probably would've seen Bieber end as a top-10 starting pitcher but it's hard to grade him higher than slightly better than ok given he missed more than three months.

End of Season Grade: C+

Expectations for 2022

As his shoulder injury shouldn't prevent Bieber from having a normal preseason, I'd expect Bieber to have a season similar to his 2019 year. An ERA between 3.00 - 3.20 should be achievable again and if he gets the walks back down to pre-2021 numbers, a WHIP around 1.10 is also likely. Bieber should also be able to top 200 strikeouts if he stays healthy.

Given he threw 214.1 innings (second-most) in 2019 and 77.1 (fourth most) in 2020, fantasy managers shouldn't be too concerned about health issues when drafting Bieber. The only red flag could come in the way of the newly named Guardians offense and whether they can score enough runs to give Bieber 15+ wins. Even if they don't, Bieber should still be an SP1 next year and could be drafted as an SP2 meaning a potentially nice value.

 

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

ADP: 17.76
Early Season Grade: B+
Midseason Grade: B+
GP 30, W-L 8-11, IP 166.1, K 199, ERA 4.22, WHIP 1.09

I don't think any pitcher had such contrasting halves, especially none drafted as high as Darvish. We've already looked at Cole's struggles later in the season but Darvish's second half was certainly more eye-catching. After a successful start to the season, Darvish hit the IL for the first of three stints on July 11th. And while no IL stint lasted longer than the minimum 10 days, it appeared as though he was never fully healthy from July onwards.

If we look at his numbers prior to his first IL stint and then after, the difference is startling.

	GS	IP	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	HR/9
Pre-July 11th	18	105.0	7-3	3.09	1.00	29.8%	5.7%	1.11
Post-July 11th	12	61.1	1-8	6.16	1.26	28.2%	7.6%	2.20

Obviously, his difficulties also came after the foreign substance crackdown but given his injury struggles, that wasn't really brought up as a potential factor. And it's something we likely won't even know about until much farther down the line. It may have been a combination of both. But whatever caused it, the regression was difficult to take for fantasy managers.

It was a testament to Darvish that he still managed to make 30 starts given those injury issues and if the Padres form wasn't so bad in the second half of the season, as their playoff hopes slipped away week-by-week, Darvish may have had a more extended stay on the IL. Regardless of what caused his regression, it was certainly a disappointing season for Darvish as he ultimately finished as the 37th starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater.

If we look at the season as a whole, the 199 strikeouts were nice and a 1.09 WHIP is nothing to turn your nose up at. But just eight wins from his 30 starts and an ERA north of 4.00 left a lot to be desired from the fourth starting pitcher taken in drafts. All-in-all, his season as a whole was below par and not what you expected when drafting Darvish.

End of Season Grade: C-

Expectations for 2022

Despite his second-half struggles, I'm still somewhat bullish on Darvish for 2022. If we flip his two halves around, fantasy folks will be commenting about how he turned things around and looked so good in the second half. There's certainly a recency bias when talking about Darvish and the hip injury that plagued Darvish towards the end of the season doesn't appear to be something that will prevent him from having a normal preseason.

The second reason I'm more bullish than most is his underlying numbers, which suggest Darvish was a bit unlucky even when his numbers were so bad. He finished the season with a 3.29 xERA, 3.75 xFIP and 3.49 SIERA and from July 11th onwards, had a 3.74 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA. It's still early but I expect Darvish to be a late SP2 in 2022 and could be a nice value pick.

 

Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 18.19
Early Season Grade: C-
Midseason Grade: C
GP 31, W-L 11-9, IP 178.2, K 201, ERA 3.53, WHIP 1.10

Unlike Darvish and Cole, Giolito got better as the season went on. Despite a poor April (5.68 ERA in five starts), he recovered well and ended June with a 6-5 record (16 starts), 3.84 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 111 strikeouts in 93.2 IP. From July 01st onwards, Giolito had a 5-4 record (15 starts), 3.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 85.0 IP.

What makes interesting reading from those splits is how Gioltio had better results despite fewer strikeouts and that was partly due to cutting down the walks. After having an 8.0% BB% in the first three months of the season, Giolito cut that down to 6.4% in the final three months of the season. A look at Giolito's pitch usage shows a slight change in his secondary pitch use and will help explain why his strikeouts dropped a bit but his results improved.

	Fastball %	Slider %	Curveball %	Changeup %
April – June	44.0%	16.6%	1.9%	37.5%
July - September	43.7%	26.9%	4.0%	25.4%

We can see that his slider usage increased significantly in the second half of the season and his changeup usage dropped as a result. If we see how those pitches played over the season, it'll explain the results.

	AVG	SLG	wOBA	Whiff%
Fastball	.251	.427	.330	25.6%
Slider	.173	.353	.228	18.5%
Changeup	.218	.383	.281	26.3%
Curveball	.167	.500	.271	17.9%

This shows how Giolito's slider had better results but his changeup had more swings and misses. Hence, Giolito's increased slider usage instead of his changeup led to better results but fewer strikeouts. The fact this was recognized and his arsenal adapted in-season should hold him in good stead moving forward and certainly helped him turn a mediocre season into a solid one.

Giolito was slightly overshadowed by Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon this year (not to mention Dylan Cease's breakout) but held his own and built on his stellar 2020 campaign. Maybe he had a bit too much helium heading into drafts and being the fifth starting pitcher taken in drafts was a little too optimistic. But he finished as the 25th starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater and despite not quite living up to expectations, certainly wasn't a bust.

End of Season Grade: C+

Expectations for 2022

After Giolito disappointed in his first full season in the Majors (2018), he's been a solid performer and has a 3.47 ERA in 427.2 IP. He's also been durable, making 29 or more starts in his three full seasons and 12 in the shortened 2020 season. Only 12 pitchers have thrown more innings in the last three years and just three of them have a better ERA than Giolito during that time.

Giolito's underlying numbers backed up his 2021 season too, with a 3.29 xERA, 3.75 xFIP and 3.72 SIERA. There's nothing to suggest he can't pick up 12 wins and 200 strikeouts with a 3.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2022. His reliability will also be an asset come draft day and he'll still be just 27 years old come opening day so should be entering his prime years. I'd be confident taking Giolito as a high SP2 come draft day.

 

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 22.05
Early Season Grade: B+
Midseason Grade: A
GP 33, W-L 16-4, IP 207.2, K 212, ERA 2.47, WHIP 0.97

Buehler was a model of consistency throughout 2021 and if it wasn't for a slightly disappointing September, could have finished as the number one starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater. Instead, he had to settle for third after a 4.83 ERA in the final month of the season.

Prior to September, Buehler had three consecutive months of a sub-2.00 ERA and finished August with an ERA of 2.05. Three of his six starts to end the season were quality starts, but a six-run outing at the Giants was followed by a five-run outing at Colorado a couple of weeks later, which saw his ERA shoot up. But his ERA was still third-lowest among qualified pitchers and he threw 28.1 innings more than second-place (Scherzer) and 40.2 innings more than first place (Corbin Burnes).

Buehler also finished tied-third in wins and comfortably led MLB in quality starts with 28 (Robbie Ray and Sandy Alcantara were tied-second with 23). Buehler started the season with 16 consecutive starts of six innings or more and only failed to reach the six-inning mark in four of his 33 starts. Even his Statcast profile is a model of consistency.

The one knock on Buehler is the lack of an elite strikeout rate. While his 26.0% K% is still above average, it was only 19th among the 39 qualified pitchers and was second-lowest among the starting pitchers covered in this article. It also marked his lowest in any season since making his MLB debut and down on his career 28.6% K% prior to this season. Despite that, his 212 strikeouts were still the tenth most in the Majors this year, a further testament to his consistency.

When it comes to starting pitchers, being able to get 30+ starts at a high level is huge and that's what Buehler gave fantasy managers. If he at least maintained his career strikeout rate and didn't have a disappointing final few weeks of the season, he would have secured the highest grade.

End of Season Grade: A

Expectations for 2022

There's no reason to believe Buehler can't repeat this year in 2022. His ERA might regress a bit as his 3.08 xERA, 3.57 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA suggests. But he has a career 2.90 ERA and has four straight seasons of a sub-3.50 ERA. If he can tally a few more strikeouts, that can offset any slight increase in his ERA.

Buehler will be a top-5 starting pitcher drafted next season and is an early-mid second-round pick. His consistency can allow fantasy managers to take greater risks on their pitching staff later and still produce SP1 numbers. Although those underlying numbers might give a little pause for concern, Buehler is still one of the safest options to finish as a top-12 starting pitcher in 2022.

 

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 22.65
Early Season Grade: A-
Midseason Grade: C-
GP 32, W-L 9-9, IP 180.2, K 223, ERA 4.63, WHIP 1.13

It was a season of what might have been for Mr. Nola and the Phillies. After a great start to the year, Nola had a 2.89 from his first seven starts (43.2 IP). Then followed a five-run outing against the Braves which sent his season into a bit of a tailspin. By the end of June (17 starts), Nola had a 4.44 ERA and things still didn't get any better from then.

While Buehler was a model of consistency, Nola was the poster child for being Mr. Inconsistent. Among his 32 starts, he had a complete game shutout, six starts with double-digit strikeouts and eight starts with zero walks (with at least six strikeouts in each of them).

But Nola also had six starts where he gave up five or more earned runs, seven starts in which he failed to get through five innings and just 11 quality starts. What was really baffling was among his ten worst outings (according to his Fangraphs Game Score version 2.0) were starts against the Marlins, Pirates and Nationals (twice). The Marlins and Pirates were the two lowest-scoring offenses in 2021.

Yet among his best ten starts were outings against the Dodgers (fourth-most runs in MLB) and Braves (eighth). The start against the Braves came on the back of three starts in which Nola allowed 15 earned runs in 16.0 IP. And the Dodgers outing was sandwiched between two starts totaling 9.1 IP in which Nola allowed nine earned runs.

A look at what possibly caused his struggles leads to a pretty quick answer. He allowed too many flyballs. His 13.5% HR/FB was lower than his 14.1% mark heading into the season but his 1.30 HR/9 was a career-high. Nola's 26 home runs allowed was the 19th most in MLB. And if we look at his batted ball profile since his MLB debut, we can see the flyball increase has largely come at the expense of groundballs.

Season	Groundball %	Flyball %	Line drive %	Popup %
2015	49.8%	18.3%	28.4%	3.5%
2016	56.9%	14.1%	24.8%	4.3%
2017	50.4%	21.8%	23.1%	4.6%
2018	52.4%	17.7%	22.9%	7.0%
2019	50.9%	20.7%	23.5%	4.9%
2020	49.4%	13.7%	29.2%	7.7%
2021	41.6%	27.0%	24.1%	7.3%

It doesn't need me to tell you that a pitcher allowing more flyballs and fewer groundballs isn't good news for the pitcher. Nola finished the season with a 6.19 ERA in September to round off what was his worst year since 2016 (4.78 ERA). Nola's 223 strikeouts were eighth-most in the Majors and his career-best 5.2% BB% (92nd percentile) helped him to a solid 1.13 WHIP.

Those two factors helped Nola finish as the 42nd starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater but couldn't offset his nine wins and 4.63 ERA. Much more was expected of Nola in 2021 and although he had flashes of brilliance on the mound, they were few and far between with too many bad outings mixed in too. Definitely a fantasy failure for Nola.

End of Season Grade: D

Expectations for 2022

Despite his struggles, there's a reason for optimism in 2022. While his ERA was the highest it's been in five years, his underlying numbers tell a tale of misfortune. Nola had a 3.39 xERA, 3.37 xFIP and 3.26 SIERA. If his ERA was near any of those marks, we'd likely have been looking at a top-12 starting pitcher.

We've already mentioned his 5.2% BB% was a career-best but his 29.8% K% was also a season-high (outside of 2020's shortened season in which he had a 33.2% K%). If Nola can maintain those while reducing the flyballs back to something nearer 20.0%, he should be a top-20 starting pitcher in 2022. He will likely be drafted a few rounds later than he was in 2021, making Nola a potentially great value draft pick next year.

 

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals & Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 27.33
Early Season Grade: B
Midseason Grade: A
GP 30, W-L 15-4, IP 179.1, K 236, ERA 2.46, WHIP 0.86

What's the saying about wine getting better with age? Or is that cheese? Regardless, next year it'll be replaced with Scherzer. Not only did Scherzer get better as the season went on, at age 37 he posted a career-low ERA and for the eleventh time in his career, started at least 30 regular-season games.

Prior to his trade to the Dodgers, Scherzer was already on track for an outstanding season. In 19 starts for the Nationals, he had a 2.76 ERA, 0.89 WHIP with an 8-4 record (111.0 IP). With the Dodgers, Scherzer made 11 starts and posted a 1.98 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and had a 7-0 record (68.1 IP).

If it wasn't for a pair of five earned runs outings to finish the season, Scherzer's numbers would have been even more incredible. He had a 0.78 ERA in his first nine starts with the Dodgers and 2.08 ERA on the season prior to those starts. That would have easily been enough to have led the league in ERA (among qualified starters) but ultimately finished in second place behind Corbin Burnes and his 2.43 ERA.

As well as finishing second in ERA among qualified starters, Scherzer was fourth in strikeouts, fifth in wins and first in WHIP. That was all enough for Scherzer to finish as the number one starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater and tied fourth overall (with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.).

Those of you in head-to-head leagues would have been extremely disappointed in his two clunkers to finish the season as they may have cost you in the playoffs (assuming you play the final week). But his season of work up until that point was phenomenal and it seems harsh to mark him down just on the basis of two outings, especially when he was the number one starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

End of Season Grade: A+

Expectations for 2022

Scherzer heads into free agency this offseason, assuming he does return to the mound in 2022. There's not been any inclination he wouldn't be back next year so it will be interesting to see where he lands and how long he signs for. Despite him being unable to take the Dodgers to a second straight World Series and experiencing some arm issues in the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised to see him re-sign with the Dodgers. Especially given the issues they had with their starting rotation in 2021.

A reunion with the Tigers to help their young rotation is also something I wouldn't bet against but regardless of where he winds up pitching in 2022, he should still be regarded as an SP1. He certainly won't make it back to the third round in most drafts with age being the only slight knock against him. But as the saying goes, 'like a fine Scherzer, Max gets better with age'.

 

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 29.14
Early Season Grade: F
Midseason Grade: D
GP 33, W-L 8-16, IP 187.2, K 192, ERA 3.98, WHIP 1.36

The fact Castillo finished the season with an ERA below four is pretty remarkable in itself. That it didn't drop below four until his final start of the season sums up how things went for the Reds starter. The silver lining was if you did draft him and held him through his early struggles, you were somewhat rewarded for your patience.

Castillo's season got off to the worst possible start, allowing ten runs (eight earned) in just 3.1 innings against the Cardinals while failing to strike out a single batter. His next start saw him throw seven scoreless innings against the Pirates. But that was as good as it got for some time as he ended May with a 7.22 ERA from 11 starts (52.1 IP) and a 1-8 record.

The Summer months treated Castillo's fantasy managers well as he put up a 1.95 ERA in 11 starts during June and July (69.1 IP). And if it wasn't for an eight-run outing in August, his final two months of the season would've been even better than the 3.55 ERA he put up in the 11 starts (66.0 IP).

What's interesting is how his monthly ERA in 2021 followed a similar trend to his career splits, with April and May being significantly worse than June and July. Then August struggles followed by strong Septembers.

Month	Career ERA	2021 ERA
March/April	4.58	6.29
May	5.01	8.04
June	3.55	1.71
July	2.95	2.15
August	4.47	4.58
September/October	2.46	2.35

Just eight wins weren't anything to get excited about either, especially considering 12 relievers picked up eight or more wins in 2021. But his biggest disappointment came in the form of strikeouts, more specifically, the lack of them. In 2019, Castillo notched 226 strikeouts in 190.2 IP with a 28.9% K%. He entered the year with a 27.0% K% so this year's 23.9% K% was a big letdown.

Castillo referenced not enjoying pitching in the cold but for a starter in Cincinnati who was drafted in the third round, that's far from ideal. All his numbers regressed and he finished as the 75th starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater. Although he had periods of excellence, the bad offset them and his season as a whole was below expectations.

End of Season Grade: D

Expectations for 2022

For 2022, I expect the same trends from Castillo, but maybe not such low lows. I had a more detailed piece earlier in the season which looked at Castillo's difficulty in finishing off hitters in two-strike counts, something I hope he gets back to doing. The regression in strikeouts does give me pause as to whether he can replicate his 2019 season.

But on the plus side, Castillo's underlying numbers suggest he should've had better results this year. A 3.62 xERA, 3.63 xFIP and 4.03 SIERA hints that he could've had a slightly better ERA but still not the overall results that warrent taking Castillo as an SP1. Even a low-end SP2 might be pushing it, especially if you know cold weather leaves him almost unstartable.

The Reds could trade Castillo this offseason as they continue to plead poverty. If that does happen, keep your fingers crossed Castillo finish somewhere warm all year round. Or the Reds relocate to Hawaii. Either option works.

 

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 32.81
Early Season Grade: C+
Midseason Grade: D+
GP 17, W-L 9-2, IP 78.1, K 85, ERA 3.22, WHIP 1.06

Like others in this list, Flaherty had something of a lost season following an oblique injury that saw him sidelined for two and a half months, only to hit the IL again two weeks after his return for a shoulder injury that saw him miss another month. His 78.1 IP  is the fewest of any pitcher on this list.

When healthy, Flaherty was very good. Even after a first start of the season that saw him give up six earned runs in 4.1 IP, he still finished May with a 2.90 ERA from 11 starts (62.0 IP) and an 8-1 record. Those eight wins came in consecutive starts following his opening day clunker. Seven of those eight outings were quality starts. He was looking every bit the 2019 version of himself when he posted a 2.75 ERA in 33 starts.

Then the oblique injury hit, followed by the shoulder issue. Flaherty's first two starts after the oblique injury saw him pitch 12 innings and allow just two earned runs as it seemed like he was going to reward fantasy managers' patience with him by picking up where he left off. Then his next start lasted two innings (giving up four earned runs) before he was shelved by the shoulder strain. He did return in late September and made two relief appearances and a one-out start, but for fantasy purposes, his season ended following that shoulder injury.

The one thing Flaherty did have going for him is those nine wins from just 15 starts. That's tied-fifth most from the starting pitchers on this list despite having the fewest total innings. His solid ERA and WHIP contributed to him finishing as the 64th starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater. Not bad for someone who missed half the season. Given Flaherty's results when healthy, it's difficult to criticize him. All we can do is think of what might have been if he stayed on the field all year.

End of Season Grade: C-

Expectations for 2022

While Flaherty's numbers were good last season, there are red flags that leave me concerned for 2022. Despite a 3.22 ERA, he had a 4.86 xERA, 3.96 xFIP and 3.92 SIERA, all suggesting he had some good fortune. Albeit in a small sample size during the 2020 season (40.1 IP), Flaherty had a 4.91 ERA with a 5.07 xERA, 3.42 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA. If we combined the last two seasons, Flaherty has 118.2 IP with a 3.79 ERA, 3.78 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA. That looks appears more likely an expectation for 2022 than a 3.22 ERA.

That being said, Flaherty did have two dominant seasons prior to 2020. He threw 347.1 innings between 2018 and 2019 with a 3.01 ERA. But again, his underlying numbers suggest his ERA was fortunate as he had a 3.62 xFIP and 3.63 SIERA in that period. Maybe a projection of a 3.60 - 3.80 ERA is more realistic. Still solid numbers but again, not the 3.20 career ERA he had prior to 2020.

My other concern this year was the lack of strikeouts. Flaherty entered the season with a 29.2% K% but only had a 26.4% K% this year. That strikeout rate was at 26.3% prior to his oblique injury so it can't be argued that it was dragged down when he returned and wasn't 100% healthy. I'm not poo-pooing Flaherty for 2022 and beyond, especially as he had two very good seasons and the last two years have been hampered with illness and injury. But his Statcast profile doesn't look great and he's got the makings of a regression candidate next year.

 

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 34.57
Early Season Grade: A
Midseason Grade: A+
GP 30, W-L 9-10, IP 179.1, K 211, ERA 2.56, WHIP 0.96

Given Woodruff had a 2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 211 strikeouts, it may come as a surprise he only finished as the 11th starting pitcher on the ESPN player rater, just one spot ahead of deGrom. That was largely down to just picking up nine wins. How he managed to have a losing record is pretty remarkable considering he had 20 quality starts.

Everything else was what fantasy managers hoped for following Woodruff's breakout 2020 season, in which he had a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP from 13 starts (73.2 IP). Woodruff only achieved a 3-5 record in 2020 so maybe he's turning into the new deGrom and is destined to have next to no run support every start..

After putting up a 29.8% K% and 6.1% BB% in 2019 and 2020 combined (195.1 IP), Woodruff had a 29.8% K% and 6.1% BB% in 2021. Talk about a model of consistency. Over the last two years, only six pitchers have thrown more innings than Woodruff's 253.0 as he's showing reliability as well as high-level performances. And none of those six pitchers have a better ERA in that timeframe than Woodruff's 2.70.

Of the 49 pitchers who have pitched 200+ innings in the last two years, only Buehler and Woodruff's teammate Burnes have a better ERA. Woodruff tied with Buehler in WHIP (0.97) during the last two years (second only to Burnes' 0.96) and his 302 strikeouts rank sixth overall. However you factor in 2020, Woodruff has been excellent for back-to-back seasons and if he wasn't unlucky in only getting nine wins, he'd easily have been graded with an A+.

End of Season Grade: A

Expectations for 2022

Woodruff's consistent excellence makes him a safe pick to be an SP1 again in 2022. Maybe he lacks the elite strikeouts to be a top-3 starting pitcher, but he was still in the 86th percentile for K% in 2021, 84th percentile in 2020 and 81st percentile in 2019. It's hard to think he'll only get single-digit wins again next year so Woodruff should be around the fifth to eighth starting pitcher taken in drafts.

His underlying numbers back up that ranking too. After having a 3.34 xFIP and 3.49 SIERA over the previous two years combined, Woodruff had a 3.05 xFIP and 3.31 SIERA in 2021 to go along with a 3.29 xERA. Not the sub-3.00 he put up this year. But going back to that list of 49 pitchers who have 200+ innings in the last two years, Woodruff's 3.12 xFIP is fourth-best and his 3.30 SIERA is fifth-best. Consistency, reliability and excellence. Three attributes you want in your fantasy ace and attributes Woodruff has displayed over the last three years.

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