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The Fantasy Sports Writers Association award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller.com! Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information.
On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts and media members provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott supplies his fantasy baseball viewpoints on their commentaries. These reports contain many viewpoints that you will not find anywhere else, from the truest experts on the game:
This season’s Insider Series continues with comprehensive scouting reports from a former Major League executive who is a current and longtime broadcaster. In recent years he has become a very dedicated fantasy baseball player. He offers completely unique and highly valuable perspectives as a rare fantasy enthusiast who has worked in high-level MLB front office roles.
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Scouting Reports From a Real GM
Luis Robert
“I love the power and speed potential, and whoever drafts him will be satisfied. He is not going to be a great hitter, though. He has a lot to learn in terms of plate discipline and pitch recognition. He probably goes higher in drafts than I would take him. But I know that he has that unique combination of power and speed. The batting average is a real question mark, though. I think he will hit .240 with 25 homers and 25 steals.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Robert had a 32.2 K% last season, so you can see the reason for concern on the BA. That number was in the bottom six percent of the league. His xBA was even lower than his actual BA (.223 to .233). Robert’s Out of Zone Swing% of 39.5 was top 25 in MLB. His Sprint Speed of 29.1 was in the top four percent of the league. The upside is reflected in his NFBC Average Draft Position of 35, but if you draft or have already drafted Robert, there are going to be some growing pains in addition to the heroics. You are taking the power and speed combo to obviously sacrifice your BA. You likely know this when you draft Robert, you will just have to deal with some stretches of frustration and must compensate in BA elsewhere. He may be the ultimate risk/reward pick you can make this season.
Joe Musgrove
“I see him more as a middle of the road starter. I like his stuff and approach but he is not a front-end starter. I am not buying into him being a strikeout pitcher. The only time he has done it very well has been in a short season, and 11 starts is too short of a window for a true evaluation. He wasn’t more than that in the past. Lots of guys like him, but I don’t see him as an overpowering pitcher.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Musgrove’s ADP of 125.2 puts him in range with starters such as Pablo Lopez and Kevin Gausman. But you shouldn’t be drafting him there for any strikeout promise. His 3.86 ERA last season was supported by a 3.19 xFIP. Yet the 33.1 K% was certainly surprising. He had never posted a number above 22% previously. Musgrove did increase his curveball usage from 9.5 to 19.9 percent, and opponents hit just .050 against it. He still had a .324 BAA on his four-seamer, the pitch Musgrove utilized the most. He is going to a much better team and a great hitter’s park, so while you should still get a pretty good ERA and WHIP, opposing hitters might adjust back to the point where he is not blowing them away nearly as much. He may not be able to stun them with the curve quite as often over a full season.
Cavan Biggio
“I like Biggio but he is getting overdrafted unless you play in an OBP league. I am not convinced he is a significant impact player. I think he hits .260 with 25 homers and 15 steals. He can display great discipline at times but he will often take the walk rather than swing the bat, and that can limit some of the damage he can do. He will take a 3-0 or 2-1 pitch rather than getting on base in a more aggressive way. That approach can keep his quantitative numbers down.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: At an ADP of 64, Biggio is going ahead of hitters such as Keston Hiura and Michael Conforto, and this source and other fantasy analysts have indicated that could be a mistake. You may be taking him for the combination of power and speed, but as pointed out here, the upside can be capped because of the plate approach. Biggio has a First Strike% of 53.7 so far in his short MLB career, and his Swing % of 36.0 was 140th in the Majors last season. His BB% of 15.5 in 2020 was the in the top eight percent of the league. The xBA was an alarming .214, though. Biggio's Sprint Speed was just 28.3. He knows how to get on base, but doesn’t hit his way on often enough to not be a significant source of concern in BA formats. The SB upside may be limited too, especially because Biggio is projected to hit lower in the batting order. He could get some leadoff days on occasion, but not often enough.
James Karinchak
“I traded for him in a dynasty league. He has real swing and miss stuff. He has great stuff and is very deceptive, and that is a dynamic combo. I expect him to be a high-end reliever. He’ll be one of the top closers drafted next year when he proves it even more. He comes in full of aggression and pitches with that aggression. He will get tons of strikeouts and saves. He is just filthy.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Walks have been an issue for Karinchak this spring, as he has issued seven free passes in nine innings pitched. He also walked 16 batters in 27 innings pitched last season. That may be a reason why Nick Wittgren has entered the conversation as a possible closing option for Cleveland. Command has been a persistent issue for Karinchak, but the upside is immense. He tied an MLB record last year for highest Ks per nine (17.67) with at least 25 innings pitched in a season. Karinchak’s ADP of 103.6 points to the high strikeout promise, and this source believes he will ultimately prevail as the prime finishing option for Cleveland. Karinchak has almost everything we want to see in an ideal closer, including an intimidating presence on the mound. He may be able to blow away hitters even if he allows a few to get on base and escapes trouble. But the walk problems should make you think twice about being fully confident in taking him at the current slot in late drafts.
Dylan Moore
“He is getting overdrafted because people are hunting for stolen bases. He did steal 12 bases in the short season last year, but he was caught stealing nine times in 2019. He is not a pure base stealer. I see him ultimately bouncing around and being a super sub. He will be a .250 hitter with 12 homers and 12 steals. He will see semi-regular playing time as the season progresses. I don’t think he has figured it out after 137 at-bats last season. He struck out 43 times, so there is lots of swing and miss from him. The more he plays, the more he will be exposed.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: At an ADP of 120.9, it is indeed obvious that many fantasy players are chasing the perceived upside of pop and speed from Moore. Yet in addition to the numbers that this source points out, Moore’s xBA was just .247 last season. He has been caught stealing 14 times in 37 attempts so far in his career. His Sprint Speed of 27.7 ranked 138th in the Majors last year. Moore could open the season as a starting second baseman and may get some chances to hit leadoff, but this source believes he will bust and Ty France will take over at 2B at some point. You can get France at an ADP of 303.9, too, if you still have yet to draft. If you already drafted France, you may have nabbed quite a value at the expense of Moore.
Shohei Ohtani
“There will be limited innings pitched and counting numbers. He can be dominant, but you will have to accept less time and appearances. As a hitter, I love him, but he faces similar issues. How much will he DH? There has been some thought the Angels will be more aggressive and even let him hit six days a week, but he has never played and pitched that much. He could wear down in the second half of the season. He has a great knack at the plate, but I can’t be sure how much he will run. They actually might run him more than they should, but at the same time they don’t want to risk injuries. He can hit .280 with 25 homers and maybe a dozen steals.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Ohtani has already showed this spring that his 2020 season was adversely affected by health issues. He has generated major Cactus League buzz, hitting .571 with five homers, eight RBI and two steals in 11 games. He has also hit triple digits in mph and struck out 14 batters in eight innings pitched. Ohtani is looking like an incredible value at an ADP of 197.2, especially as a hitter. He should certainly get back in line with his 2019 production, and possibly better it a bit more. You just have to apparently live with the unpredictable and unusual usage, especially as a pitcher.
Gavin Lux
“I am not convinced he will play regularly. The 2020 season was an odd one for him. It didn’t make sense that he disappeared into the alternate site black hole. It feels like he has lost his luster in the eyes of the Dodgers. He needs to rebuild his confidence and the team’s confidence in him, and when you don’t have either of those, it’s a bad combination. I don’t believe it will happen for him this season. His at-bats could be limited unless he is dominant in the early part of the season.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Lux has certainly hit well enough to open the season with an opportunity to get off to that hot start this source says he needs to stay in the lineup. He has a .385 average with four doubles and five RBI in 39 at-bats. Lux still has not flashed any of the power we have seen in the minors, but Dave Roberts has seemed to be encouraged, talking about possibly using him more against lefties. Chris Taylor is ready to take playing time if Lux slumps for an extended period, though. You are not taking a major chance on Lux at an ADP of 234.8. He has yet to show us he is more than a Quadruple-A player. But at just 23 years old, he is certainly capable of breaking out at any time. Lux is still worthy of the late flier, because you don’t risk much if he flops as this source believes he will.
Edwin Diaz
"You love him from a fantasy perspective, but the New York fans hate him. Last year he had 50 strikeouts in 25.2 innings pitched and had a good WHIP. He only allowed two home runs. If that was his first year in New York, people would have loved the guy. The numbers last year were elite, they were amazing. He only walked 14 batters. But he is a boom or bust guy for this season. His success is strictly based on how he handles blowing a save. How does he manage it if he gets booed? He has overpowering stuff, but it takes just one big swing to do damage to him as a closer. Either he will be really good all year or he will implode and lose his job. If you draft him you have to understand at some point you may no longer get any saves from him.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: We all saw how disappointing Diaz was in his first year in New York, but the xFIP that season was 3.07, far below the 5.51 ERA. The homers allowed were down last year and the K% of 45.5 was the highest of his career. It is all mental for Diaz, as being able to succeed in the New York pressure cooker is a real challenge, not one that is a myth. One former Mets pitcher I spoke to says Diaz performed very well without fans at Citi Field last season, but now some spectators will be allowed back and we will just have to wait and see how Diaz responds to any adversity. If he falters again, Trevor May could be called on to take over closing duties at some point. You will have to keep Diaz’s wobbly state of mind in your thoughts when taking him at an ADP of 79.3. If he moves past the issues, though, you will obviously have an elite closer to benefit greatly from
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