EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 1: English Premier League

3 years ago by Jamie Steed

We're back. A new Premier League season is here and once again, RotoBaller will be bringing you the weekly betting picks throughout the season. Before we begin, it's important to remember that many teams had multiple players competing in international tournaments during the Summer, many of whom haven't been back at their clubs for more than a week or two and will likely not feature in the opening week of the season. Starting lineups will be difficult to predict and teams are still trying to bring in (and offload) players so we'll tread carefully to begin with.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

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Friday, August 13th, 2021

Arsenal at Brentford - 3:00 pm ET

Arsenal disappointed again last year and after finishing eighth, they will not be playing in any European Competition this year which may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. This will be their third straight away game to start the season and they won their previous two. Arsenal's last away defeat on the opening weekend of the season was in 2000 and they're 5-2-0 in such games since then.

Despite last season's disappointment, Arsenal fared well against newly-promoted teams, going 4-2-0 against them which included an opening day 3-0 win away at Fulham. They also picked up more points away (33) than at home (28) last season.

I don't put much credence into preseason games but what has been notable for Arsenal is a continuation of giving away soft goals, something they've been known for in recent seasons. They will also be without Thomas Partey who was been an effective screen for their defense since joining the club and the fact they spent £50m on defender Ben White from Brighton shows they are looking to address that weakness.

Brentford is in the Premier League for the first time in their history and given they were playing in England's fourth tier only 13 years ago, it's a remarkable story. They had to come up through the playoffs which put teams at a disadvantage with a two-week delay before they can prepare for the new season. Teams getting promotion via the playoffs have lost their Premier League opener in each of the last three seasons.

No team scored more goals in the Championship last year than Brentford (79) but they also boasted the fourth-best defensive record and in Ivan Toney, had the league's top-scorer who scored 31 goals in 45 games. With fans allowed back in stadiums, Brentford will be rocking on Friday and will likely make it a night to remember.

Even without strengthening in the attacking areas, Arsenal should have too much for the newcomers. Despite that, Brentford's attacking play and Arsenal's questionable defense make me believe Brentford does score and it wouldn't be the most surprising upset if they took something from the game.

Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 3 Arsenal

Betting Picks:

Match result - Arsenal win (-111) 1 unit
Both teams to score - Yes (-130) 1 unit

Saturday, August 14th, 2021

Brighton at Burnley - 10:00 am ET

This isn't a game that jumps off the page and with good reason. These two teams occupied 16th and 17th places last season while Burnley's 33 goals scored ranked 18th and Brighton's 40 goals ranked 15th. Neither team has made any significant addition to their attacking ranks while Brighton lost the aforementioned defender White to Arsenal.

These two have played each other eight times in the Premier League (last four seasons), with Burnley winning twice, Brighton winning once and five draws. Three of those draws have been 0-0 and both games last season were draws. Six of those eight games have also seen two or fewer goals scored.

Brighton's 14 draws last season were more than any other team in the league and Burnley's six home draws were only topped by Brighton (nine). It wasn't until matchweek nine that Burnley won their first league game last season and they will no doubt look to ensure they don't go into next weekend pointless.

Brighton will look at last season's +13.9 expected goal difference (xGD) which was the fifth-best in the league and think they should perform much better this season. But a large part of their problems was missing chances and they've done nothing to address that with new personnel. Against a team that likes to keep games tight and compact, I don't foresee a classic. I'm slightly surprised that the line has Brighton as pretty significant favorites and if I had to lean towards a winner, I'd go towards Burnley.

Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Brighton

Betting Picks:

Match result - Draw (+212) 1 unit
First half draw no bet - Burnley (+108) 1.5 units

Everton vs Southampton - 10:00 am ET

Everton will be looking to improve on last season's tenth-placed finish. Manager Carlo Ancelotti left for Real Madrid this summer and has been replaced by Rafael Benetiz, formerly of arch-rivals Liverpool. He'll be keen to win over the Everton fans as quickly as possible as a slow start to the season could see them turn on him quickly given his links to Liverpool.

Everton's Goodison Park is one of the toughest stadiums to play at with the fans close to the action and among the most vocal in the league. They'll certainly be keen to make their home ground a fortress again following 18 months away and after picking up just 22 points at home last season (only the bottom five teams picked up fewer home points).

For Southampton, it looks like it could be a long and difficult season. They sold Danny Ings to Aston Villa in the last few days and he's been responsible for scoring 35% of their league goals over the last two seasons. Defender Jan Vestergaard is also on the brink of joining Leicester City, leaving a pretty big hole at the heart of their defense. They have brought Adam Armstrong to replace Ings, who scored 28 goals in the Championship last season.

Southampton's away record last year was woeful (4-4-11) with only West Brom and Sheffield United (who finished 19th and 20th) picking up fewer than their 16 points. The 43 goals they conceded away last season were the most in the league. After beating Liverpool on January 04th last season, they only picked up 14 points in their final 21 games and would have been in a relegation battle if they didn't start the season better than they did.

I'm not convinced Everton will be competing for the top places this year without some better recruitment and last season's top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin may be unavailable for this after a delayed return due to being away with the England national team. But Southampton looks like a team that will be battling against relegation this year if they don't make key additions to their squad and will need Armstrong to make the step up in levels as well as Che Adams to fill the Ings void if they are to remain a Premier League team.

Score prediction: Everton 1 - 0 Southampton

Betting Picks:

Match result - Everton win (-106) 1.5 units
Total goals - Under 2.5 (-111) 1 unit

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