RADIO
Not the weekend we wanted as matchweek 13 was indeed unlucky for us. Leeds' goalless draw with Brighton saw us bag a healthy profit but earlier in the day, we had our first blank of the season with all five picks in the Wolves versus Norwich City game failing. A second-half Raul Jimenez goal would've seen us bag all the picks and have a monster day, but sadly, it wasn't meant to be. Burnley's game with Tottenham was then postponed on Sunday so we've slipped into the red for the first time since matchweek two. No time to dwell on it though as we enter the midweek fixtures.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 50-80-8 (-0.21 U)
- Match results: 16-15
Tuesday, November 30th, 2021
Norwich City (+281) at Newcastle United (+103) - 2:30 pm ET
Newcastle remained winless at the weekend, losing 2-0 to Arsenal and will be without two of their starting defensive unit on Tuesday through suspension. Since Eddie Howe took charge, they've had two vastly different performances, a 3-3 draw with Brentford in which they dominated the game and had 22 shots.
Then against Arsenal, they had 9 shots (most of which were long-range efforts) and never looked like creating any real chances, merely relying on Jonjo Shelvy taking potshots from distances (he accounted for four of Newcastle's nine shots on Saturday).
Norwich made it three games unbeaten with a goalless draw against Wolves on Saturday and will probably have been disappointed they didn't make it three straight wins after being the better team and creating the better chances. But it was still another positive sign that new Head Coach Dean Smith is helping them turn the corner and potentially avoid relegation.
Norwich had scored five of their seven goals this season in the three games prior to Saturday's draw and that was their third clean sheet of the season, something Newcastle has yet to achieve. I don't foresee either team's defense being able to keep one this week, especially with Newcastle forced to jiggle things about at the back.
I fear for Newcastle, despite their recent takeover and they face Burnley this weekend so have two massive games in a week. They have to get four points otherwise they could find themselves cut off from the group above them and relegation would be looming. I just can't bring myself to back them here given the two teams' recent form and fancy an upset to start the midweek fixtures.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 Norwich City
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Norwich City (+281) 0.5 unit
- Draw no bet - Norwich City (+175) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-134) 1.5 units
- Player to have at least one shot on target - Jonjo Shelvey (+110) 1 unit
Wednesday, December 01st, 2021
Leicester City (+201) at Southampton (+144) - 2:30 pm ET
Leicester's up and down season took a turn for the better on Sunday when they beat Watford 4-2. Although it was hardly an upset, it was a much-needed victory after picking up just one point in their previous three games.
Southampton was soundly beaten by Liverpool 4-0 on Saturday which makes it back-to-back defeats after having back-to-back wins. Their 11 goals scored is tied second-fewest which is a big concern and they have only five goals scored in their six home games.
Southampton has only conceded four goals at home with Burnley being the only team to have scored more than once at Southampton this season. Leicester's return to form in front of goal was always likely against a poor Watford team but after scoring just once in their previous three games, they will come into this game full of confidence.
Jamie Vardy getting back on the scoresheet on Sunday will also be of relief to himself and Leicester as the league's second-highest scorer had gone four games without a goal before his brace at the weekend. He scored five goals in the four games prior to that mini-drought.
Leicester has the definite edge in attack but they do still concern me defensively, having now conceded two or more goals in eight of their 13 league games and are without a clean sheet since the opening weekend of the season. But they have the superior firepower and if Vardy continues his form from the weekend, they should have enough going forward to win this game.
I can see this one being the highest-scoring game of the matchweek if Leicester's defense continues to leak goals and they counter that by scoring plenty. Of course, that's normally a precursor to the game-ending 0-0 and being a completely drab affair, but we'll go with Leicester City to win in a mini goal-fest.
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 3 Leicester City
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Leicester City (+201) 1 unit
- Draw no bet - Leicester City (+108) 1 unit
- Both to score and total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+108) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Jamie Vardy (+110) 1 unit
Burnley (+340) at Wolves (-105) - 2:30 pm ET
Burnley had the weekend off after their game with Tottenham was postponed on Sunday due to heavy snowfall. Although that left them still in the relegation zone, they do come into this game with their four-game unbeaten run intact.
Wolves made it back-to-back clean sheets in their goalless draw with Norwich on Saturday, albeit they were somewhat fortuitous that their opponents failed to score and inflict a sixth league defeat on them.
After losing their first three home games of the season (and failing to score), Wolves have won their last three home games, all by one goal. Only three of their games this season have been decided by more than one goal so it shouldn't be a surprise that they have a goal difference of zero, with 12 goals scored and conceded so far (13 games).
Burnley's recent good form has been largely down to their form in front of goal, something they lacked massively to start the season. They scored just five goals in their opening eight games but have found the net nine times in the last four games.
Four of Burnley's nine goals in their last four games have been scored by Maxwel Cornet and after backing him to score at the weekend, I certainly believe he carries Burnley's biggest goal threat again here. The same can be said for Wolves' Raul Jimenez, who had a quiet game on Saturday but we'll go back to the well and pick him to at least trouble the Burnley goalkeeper in this one.
While Cornet has registered a shot on target in every game he's played this season, Jimenez failed to do so on Saturday for the first time in five games. Of his 27 shots this season, 16 have been in home games (six games) with just 11 on the road (seven games) so he's much more of a threat at home than he is away.
Although Burnley has been scoring more frequently, they still haven't managed to add to their solitary clean sheet on the season, which came in matchweek seven against the league's lowest scorers (Norwich City). They are also still without a win away from home (three draws and three defeats) and as appealing as it is to take them to cause an upset, I think a draw is more likely than them winning the game.
Wolves (61) have had six more corners than Burnley (55) this season and conceded 14 fewer (59) than Burnley's 73. Wolves have taken more corners than their opponents in four of their six home games. Burnley has conceded more corners than their opponents in five of their six away games.
It's a similar story but the other way around when it comes to yellow cards, with Burnley (28) only having been cautioned five times more than Wolves (23). But Burnley's opponents have only been booked 17 times compared to Wolves' opponents picking up 28 yellow cards.
Wolves have yet to receive more yellow cards than their opponents in six home games while Burnley's opponents have only received more yellow cards in one of their six away games. Given their respective odds, we'll add both picks together to maximize any win.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Burnley
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Draw (+253) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Burnley (+210) 0.5 units
- Single-game parlay - Burnley most cards & Wolves most corners (+120) 1 unit
- Single-game parlay - Maxwel Cornet and Raul Jimenez to have a shot on target (+100) 2 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
