EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 17: English Premier League

3 years ago by Jamie Steed

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A mixed bag for us last weekend. Friday saw us correctly predict the score and get all four picks correct as Brentford beat Watford. On Sunday, we failed to get any picks as Newcastle United was trounced 4-0 at Leicester City. The away team was on top until a questionable penalty allowed Leicester to lead but the closest they came to scoring was from a misplaced backpass. We are experiencing covid outbreaks among teams and one game at the weekend fell victim to it with others threatening to be postponed so follow things carefully before placing any wagers.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

Total picks: 64-97-12 (-1.20 U)
Match results: 20-19

Wednesday, December 15th, 2021

Southampton (+271) at Crystal Palace (+117) - 2:30 pm ET

Southampton was soundly beaten 3-0 by Arsenal on Saturday. After a bright start to the game, they conceded a counter-attack goal and never managed to really get back into the game. That's now five games without a win and just three goals in their last six away games.

Crystal Palace beat Everton 3-1 on Sunday to end a run of three straight losses. Their only defeat at home came against Aston Villa in their previous home game and they have scored 13 goals in their last seven home games, scoring two or more on four occasions.

Plus odds on the home side appeal as Southampton have the look of a side in need of something different with manager Ralph Hasenhüttl coming under increasing pressure. Another loss here could see the Southampton hierarchy make a change.

Of Crystal Palace's 13 home goals, only two have been scored in the first half with Southampton conceding seven goals in the first half in their away games and ten in the second halves of the games. If it's level at the break, I'd still fancy Crystal Palace to come away with all three points.

Crystal Palace has taken 70 corners this season (sixth-fewest) with forty being taken in their eight home games (30 in eight away games). They've also had fifteen in their last two home games. Southampton's 98 corners taken is fourth-most in the league and they've had seven or more in each of their last four away games. We'll take over 10.5 total corners here, something that has happened in six of Southampton's eight away games.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 0 Southampton

Betting Picks:

Moneyline - Crystal Palace (+117) 1 unit
Team to score 2nd half - Crystal Palace (-140) 2 units
Moneyline 2nd half - Crystal Palace (+150) 0.5 units
Total corners - over 10.5 (+104) 1 unit

Wolves (+257) at Brighton (+141) - 2:30 pm ET

Brighton's game with Tottenham was called off at the weekend due to their opponents having a covid outbreak and they have reported some positive tests of their own so this game isn't a sure thing to go ahead. As of writing, there's no news of a possible postponement so we'll proceed as if the game is happening.

Brighton likely would've been happy with the extra break as they have gone ten league games without a win. Although they have only lost two of those ten games, they've scored just seven in that run and they've needed injury-time equalizers in their last two games.

Wolves were unlucky losers at Manchester City, going down 1-0 to a contentious penalty. That was after losing star striker Raul Jimenez to a red card late in the first half. Their 16 goals conceded this season is the fewest of any team outside the top-three in the league and after three straight clean sheets, only conceded once against Liverpool and then Manchester City.

The concern for Wolves is scoring goals. Saturday made it four straight games without a goal and their twelve scored this season is the second-fewest, ahead of only bottom of the table Norwich City. Jimenez will be suspended for this game, top scorer Hwang Hee-chan has scored just four times this season and is without a goal since matchweek nine.

This game looks like being a drab affair on paper and it's hard to pick a winner. The odds favor Brighton more than I'd have expected and there's some value backing Wolves, especially if Brighton has to make do without a couple of key players.

A quick reminder to not just bet on 0-0 being a correct score. Back the goalscorer market and pick 'no goalscorer'. It offers similar odds as a 0-0 draw correct score but if the only goal(s) of the game is an own goal, you still win for the 'no goalscorer' bet.

The referee for this game is Tony Harrington, taking charge of his first-ever EPL game. In the Championship, he's taken charge of eight games and shown 31 cards (30 yellow and one red), averaging 3.875 a game. Brighton's 35 yellow cards this season is tied-4th most and Wolves rank tenth with 31 yellow cards.

Wolves opponents have received 36 yellow cards (third-most) and Brighton's opponents have received 34 yellow cards (tied fifth-most). There have been four or more yellow cards in Wolves last four games while seven of Brighton's last eight games have seen a total of four or more yellow cards.

Score prediction: Brighton 0 - 0 Wolves

Betting Picks:

Moneyline - Draw (+206) 1 unit
Draw no bet - Wolves (+144) 1 unit
Goalscorer - No goalscorer (+650) 0.5 units
Total cards - Over 3.5 (-133) 1.5 units

Thursday, December 16th, 2021

Tottenham (+242) at Leicester City (+111) - 2:30 pm ET

As mentioned, Tottenham's game at the weekend was postponed due to a covid outbreak in the squad. That came on the back of their Europa Conference League game being called off last Thursday for the same reason so this game is certainly on the radar of being a possible postponement.

Leicester managed their first clean sheet since the opening weekend in beating Newcastle 4-0. They did lose defender Jonny Evans early in that game and he is set to miss this match. Their 27 goals conceded is the fifth-most in the league and it was only the third time this season their opponents had an expected goals (xG) of less than one.

Tottenham could come into this one a little rusty having not played since December 05th. But new Head Coach Antonio Conte will have had more time to instill his tactics into the team and he's off to an unbeaten start with Tottenham, with an aggregate score of 5-0 over their last two league games.

Leicester has scored 11 goals in their last four league games and that's with top-scorer Jamie Vardy being on the bench in their last two games. James Maddison has three goals and four assists in that span while Youri Tielemans returned on Sunday to inspire them with two goals.

Tottenham captain Harry Kane has just one league goal this season but will see Leicester as a prime opportunity to end his goal drought. He's scored more goals against Leicester than any other team in his career (17 goals in 16 games) and I still don't trust Leicester defensively to keep him, or Tottenham, at bay.

Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 2 Tottenham

Betting Picks: