RADIO
As if we needed reminding how fine the margins are in betting on soccer, we received a dose of it in midweek. With the Tottenham versus Leicester City game postponed, we were down to two games this week. We did hit a profit on the Crystal Palace versus Southampton game but one more corner in the match would've netted us a profit overall. Instead, we end with an 83.76% ROI. We correctly had Wolves edging out Brighton but if it wasn't for the brilliantly taken goal, we'd have had a huge profitable matchweek. Here's hoping for a change in fortunes this weekend.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 67-102-12 (-2.58 units)
- Match results: 20-21
Before we continue, this week's article is slightly different from the norm. As of writing this on Thursday, we already have five games postponed due to covid outbreaks among squads. Rather than making a few picks in two or three games, we'll have a quick look at the five remaining games and just take some parlays. With so much uncertainty right now, you should be treading even more carefully or even just sitting out for the next couple of weeks if you're unsure of things.
Saturday, December 18th, 2021
Burnley (+364) at Aston Villa (-135) - 10:00 am ET
Burnley's winless run stands at five games, but they've lost just once in their last seven games as the draws mount up (eight in fifteen games). They've played eight away games, drawing four and losing four with just six goals scored. Only Wolves and Norwich City have scored fewer than Burnley's 14 this season.
Aston Villa's form continues to be up-and-down, with alternating wins and losses in their last five games. If that trend continues, they'll lose on Saturday but I don't see that happening. Since Stephen Gerrard took charge of the team, their only defeats have come against Liverpool and Manchester City, with four wins in the other games.
In each of those four wins, Aston Villa scored two goals and I expect them to have too much firepower for a Burnley team that has failed to score in their last three games and has seven blanks in their fifteen games this season. The recent form heavily favors the home team and I'm doing the same thing.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 0 Burnley
Arsenal (-109) at Leeds United (+289) - 12:30 pm ET
Leeds was trounced 7-0 at Manchester City on Tuesday, heaping more pressure on Head Coach Marcelo Bielsa. Leeds have found themselves in a relegation scrap with just one win from their last seven games. Although goals have been hard to come by with last season's top scorer Patrick Bamford missing most of this season, they only have four blanks in seventeen games.
The only time Leeds have failed to score at home was against Liverpool with nine goals scored in the other seven games. But they also have just two clean sheets at home (one away) so haven't been as solid defensively as last season (12 clean sheets). Leeds does have something of an injury crisis and is set to be without key players Bamford and Kalvin Phillips for this weekend.
Arsenal made it back-to-back wins with a 3-0 victory against Southampton followed by a 2-0 win against West Ham United on Wednesday. Both came after club captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang breached club disciplinary rules and was ultimately stripped of the captaincy.
Both those wins also came at home, where their form is excellent (7-1-1). But away from home, they have three straight defeats and a 2-1-5 record, with just six goals scored. They have scored five goals in their last four away games and had an impressive win at Leicester City before this recent run so certainly have it in them to win n the road.
I'm always apprehensive about going against a team after a big defeat as it normally galvanizes them and they put in a big performance. But Leeds has too many important players missing and lacks the depth in their squad to really replace them so although I don't think it'll be easy for Arsenal, I believe they'll have too much and come away with the win.
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 2 Arsenal
Sunday, December 19th, 2021
Chelsea (-178) at Wolves (+576) - 9:00 am ET
Chelsea's form continues to be patchy and their 1-1 draw at home to Everton on Thursday means they've won just three of their last seven league games. After conceding just three goals in their first ten games (seven clean sheets), they now have just one clean sheet in their last seven games and have shipped in nine goals.
Chelsea has been scoring regularly with Manchester City being the only team to have kept a clean sheet against them. Even during their patchy run, they have 13 goals in the seven games so will be seeking to tighten things up at the back again to get to their top form.
Wolves picked up a narrow 1-0 win against Brighton on Wednesday, to end their winless run at four games. Unlike their opponents this weekend, goals have been hard to come by and the solitary goal on Wednesday was their first in five games. Only Norwich has scored fewer than Wolves' 13 and they have just five goals in eight home games.
Defensively, Wolves have been excellent with Wednesday being their sixth clean sheet on the season and the 14 total goals conceded this season is the fewest outside of the top-three teams in the league. Only three teams have managed to score more than once against them in a game.
I don't want to bet against Chelsea and they haven't gone two straight games without a win in the league. But Wolves are such a tricky team to beat and the two recent losses were 1-0 against Manchester City and Liverpool. So they can prove tough nuts to crack against the top teams and if they take advantage of Chelsea's recent defensive frailties, they should be able to sneak a point.
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Chelsea
Manchester City (-492) at Newcastle United (+1253) - 9:15 am ET
Manchester City cruised to their 7-0 win against Leeds United and welcomed back Kevin de Bruyne from injury. They've won their last seven league games with an aggregate score of 20-3. They have put runs like this together for years and it's almost impossible to see them not win when they're on such form.
They will draw or lose at some point in the next few games but trying to predict it will be nigh on impossible. They have everything functioning at both ends of the pitch and Newcastle will need to be at their absolute best, Manchester City at their worst and some luck to go their way if they are to halt this winning run.
Newcastle hasn't been able to build on the momentum of their first league win of the season, losing to Leicester City 4-0 and Liverpool 3-1 since. They did take an early lead against Liverpool and a late collapse against Leicester skewed the scoreline a bit, but they still look like a team destined for relegation unless they can do something dramatic in the January transfer window.
The odds are indicative of where these two teams are right now, despite being the richest clubs in the league. Manchester City is much more established under their billionaire owners and that should be reflected in the game and scoreline.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 0 - 3 Manchester City
Liverpool (-170) at Tottenham (+413) - 11:30 am ET
Tottenham's last three games in all competitions have been postponed due to the club's covid outbreak so it's still unclear if this one goes ahead. If it does, the home team could be well-rested but also find themselves a little rusty having not played a game for a fortnight.
It's unclear which players have been affected and had covid so there are lots of uncertainties coming into this game so it's certainly not one I'm targetting in any single game bet.
Liverpool can't quite match Manchester City's winning run but Thursday's come-from-behind victory against Newcastle United made it six straight. Their aggregate score in that spell is 17-2 and ten of the 13 goals they've conceded this season came in four games.
If Liverpool starts quickly, Tottenham may find it hard to cope having not played in two weeks and that could make all the difference. Even if Tottenham weather the storm or take the lead themselves, Liverpool have so much firepower, I see them making it seven consecutive wins.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1 - 2 Liverpool
Betting Picks - Parlays
- Aston Villa win, Manchester City -1, Liverpool win - (+308) 1 unit
- Chelsea/Wolves draw, Arsenal win - (+645) 0.5 units
- Over 1.5 goals in Aston Villa/Wolves, Newcastle United/Manchester City & Tottenham/Liverpool games and under 3.5 goals in Leeds United/Arsenal & Wolves/Chelsea games - (+227) 1 unit
- Draw no bet Aston Villa, Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool - (+173) 1 unit
- Aston Villa and Manchester City to score over 1.5 goals - (+131) 2 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
