EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 21: English Premier League

Another tough matchweek where we nearly bagged a nice profit. It started well with Watford and West Ham bagging us a profit in the first half and if Emmanuel Dennis scored his one-on-one in the last minute, we would have doubled our money on the game. Then Tottenham was denied a second-half winner with the tightest VAR offside call of the season which would've landed us a 167% ROI on that game. Then Liverpool somehow contrived not to score despite having over 20 shots (including a penalty) and an expected goal tally of 2.62.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

• Total picks: 73-117-12 (-9.70 units)
• Match results: 23-26

The schedule is unrelenting and matchweek 21 kicks off just 40 hours after matchweek 20 ends. As a result, odds aren't out in full until Friday so we're a bit limited and writing this while matchweek 20 is still yet to be completed doesn't help with that. We also have covid postponements causing havoc with the season so for this weekend, we'll be taking some small parlay bets to tide us over.

The full schedule is as below:

Saturday, January 01st, 2022

Manchester City (-189) at Arsenal (+481) - 07:30 am ET

Norwich City (+732) at Leicester City (-168) - 10:00 am ET

Tottenham (-163) at Watford (+394) - 10:00 am ET

West Ham United (+122) at Crystal Palace (+223) 12:30 pm ET

Sunday, January 02nd, 2022

Aston Villa (+140) at Brentford (+195) - 09:00 am ET

Brighton (+191) at Everton (+155) - 09:00 am ET

Burnley (+245) at Leeds United (+112) - 09:00 am ET

Newcastle United (+386) at Southampton (-149) - 09:00 am ET

Liverpool (+155) at Chelsea (+168) - 11:30 am ET

Monday, January 03rd, 2022

Wolves (+482) at Manchester United (-182) - 12:30 pm ET

Betting Picks

• Draw no bet parlay - Everton, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace (+592) 2 units

Despite their lowly league position, Everton's home form has been solid with 13 of the 19 points they've accumulated coming at home (eight games). They've scored 13 and conceded 13 goals at home but nine of the goals they've allowed came in two games. Their game against Newcastle United on Thursday was postponed due to the opponents having a covid outbreak so they should also be fresher for this one.

Brighton ended their 11-game winless run with a 2-0 victory over Brentford on Sunday and get the daunting task of a trip to Chelsea on Wednesday before going to Everton. They have only lost one away game this season (eight games) but won just two with five ending in a draw and although I can see them getting a point at Everton, I still fancy the home team to win and a draw will probably be Brighton's most realistic positive outcome.

I'm giving Aston Villa the edge over Brentford, as they will come into the game fresher having had their midweek game postponed. Since Steven Gerrard took charge, they have won the next game after a defeat (three times) and lost last time out against Chelsea.

Brentford has to play Manchester City at home on Wednesday so has arguably the worst preparation for another game four days later. Their defeat at Brighton leaves them with just eight points from their last ten league games and in danger of being sucked into a relegation battle.

Crystal Palace bounced back from their 3-0 loss against Tottenham to beat Norwich City by the same scoreline on Tuesday. They've only lost one home game (nine games) with three wins and five draws and have found the net in each of their last eight home games (15 goals).

West Ham picked up just their second win in eight games on Tuesday, beating Watford 4-1. It was their first away win in five games and they've yet to beat a top-half team away from home (three defeats). Crystal Palace is in tenth place as of writing.

• Team to score over 1.5 goals parlay - Tottenham, Leicester City and Liverpool (+439) 2 units

Tottenham gets the luxury of facing a Watford team that still hasn't kept a clean sheet this season and just conceded four goals for the second time in five games. During their five-match losing streak, Watford has conceded 15 goals and has now conceded 21 goals in nine games at home. Tottenham was denied a winner against Southampton by a marginal VAR call, denying them six straight league games in which they've scored twice.

Leicester gets to face bottom of the table Norwich, who are on a five-game losing streak of their own. They've conceded eight goals in their last two games and 23 in their nine away games this season. Defensively, Leicester are suspect but they've been scoring freely, 15 in their last six league games following Tuesday's game against Liverpool.

Speaking of Liverpool, their 1-0 defeat against Leicester was the first time they failed to score in the league this season (19 games). They went into the game tied as the league's top scorers with 50 goals and missed a first-half penalty, hit the bar, had 21 shots and 2.62 expected goals (xG). I expect them to bounce back against Chelsea.

This game could determine the likeliest contenders to Manchester City's title bid and Chelsea's form has been faltering in recent weeks, coinciding with their defensive leaking goals. After conceding just four goals in their first 12 league games (eight clean sheets), they have just one clean sheet in their last seven games with nine goals allowed going into Wednesday's game against Brighton.

• To score anytime parlay - Harry Kane, Raphinha and Kelechi Iheanacho (+888) 1 unit

Harry Kane made it three goals in three games with his equalizer against Southampton. He was also denied a winner by a marginal VAR decision and now gets to face a Watford team whose defense we've already covered.

Leeds United's midweek game has already been postponed due to covid hitting their squad so the weekend game is questionable. If it goes ahead, they will be looking to pick up three massive points against Burnley and distance themselves from the relegation zone. Raphinha has scored eight goals in 16 league games this season and five goals in nine home games. He'll need to be the inspiration for Leeds if they are to win.

Leicester stunned Liverpool on Tuesday and despite not scoring himself, I'm backing Iheanacho to do so against Norwich. Jamie Vardy limped through Tuesday's game and Iheanacho came off before the hour mark so I expect them to take things carefully with Vardy and probably not risk him in a game they should win.

Leicester also lost James Maddison through injury in the game so are lacking in the forward areas a bit and it was only last weekend when Iheanacho scored one and made two against Manchester City. He should be fresh enough to start and make an impact against the league's worst defense.

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

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