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Matchweek 26 started so brightly, but soon faded into darkness. After underdogs Newcastle United drew at West Ham United to kick the weekend off (as we backed), we were sat on a nice early profit. Unfortunately, Everton failed to show any fight against Southampton and Aston Villa were stunned at home against lowly Watford, leaving us with two games of no returns and our biggest loss of the season. This weekend sees only eight games (plus a midweek match) due to the EFL Cup final taking place so we have limited options as well.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 95-160-12 (-20.66 units & 91.45% ROI)
- Match results: 29-36
Friday, February 25th, 2022
Norwich City (+550) at Southampton (-179) - 3:00 pm ET
Southampton's fine form continued with a 2-0 win at home to Everton last week. They have lost just once in their last nine league games and a win on Friday will see them jump into eighth place in the league. They are unbeaten in their last nine league games at home and lost just once in their 12 home games this season. They have drawn seven of those games but have scored in each of their last nine home games (15 goals scored in total).
Norwich City looked set to cause an upset last weekend, taking the lead against Liverpool before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat. After back-to-back wins against Everton and Watford in January, they've now picked up just one point in their last three league games, although their two defeats did come against Liverpool and Manchester City.
Norwich's away form has been an issue all season with just two wins, two draws and eight losses on the road. They've managed just seven goals scored while conceding 28 on the road and three of those goals came against Watford. The four games in which they've avoided defeat on the road have all come against teams currently in the bottom seven in the table.
We're also going to back Southampton captain James Ward-Prowse to have an impact. He's the tied leading scorer for Southampton this season with six goals and has four assists. He takes penalties, free-kicks and corners and is considered one of the best set-piece takers in the league.
During Southampton's solid nine-game run, Ward-Prowse has four goals and four assists and registered 14 shots (six on target). He's had 16 crosses and taken 43 corners in those nine games so opportunities for a goal and/or assist have been there for him and should certainly be there on Friday.
Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 0 Norwich City
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Southampton (-179) 2 units
- Team total goals - Southampton over 1.5 goals (-161) 1.5 units
- To score anytime - James Ward-Prowse (+210) 0.5 units
- To assist anytime - James Ward-Prowse (+150) 0.5 units
Saturday, February 26th, 2022
Newcastle United (+198) at Brentford (+163) - 10:00 am ET
Newcastle continued their unbeaten run last week with a solid 1-1 draw at West Ham United last weekend. That made it six league games without defeat and they can leapfrog their opponents with a win. Brentford have now gone seven league games without a win (six losses) and are bottom of the recent form table coming into the weekend.
These two teams are heading in opposite directions and I'm more than happy to back Newcastle to take something from the game as underdogs. They've scored in each of their last six games and conceded just four times during this unbeaten run.
Meanwhile, Brentford has conceded two or more in six of their last seven games and scored just four, failing to score more than once in any game during their winless run. I expect a close and edgy game but Newcastle's newly developed defensive solidity combined with enough going forward to find a goal gives them an edge.
We'll also be playing Newcastle to pick up the most yellow cards. Newcastle have had two or more yellow cards in eight of their last nine games, 23 in total. They've been shown two or more in 10 of 11 away games this season and three or more in six of their last seven away games. Only Leeds United have been more penalized this season.
Brentford have only had two yellow cards in two of their last nine games and had no more than two in those games (just eight in total). They've been shown just five yellow cards in their last five home matches including none in two of those games.
We're also going to take a prop bet on Jonjo Shelvey. He has had a shot on target in three of the six away league games he's played in this season. Last week he faced off directly against one of the league's best center-midfielders in Declan Rice and it was the first time he hadn't had a single shot in the last five away games.
In 16 total games (14 starts) this season, Shelvey has had 20 shots, with 10 on target. He's not averse to trying his luck from distance and with Kieran Trippier out injured, he should be on free-kick duty giving him a clear route to registering at least one effort on target.
Score prediction: Brentford 0 - 1 Newcastle United
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Newcastle United (+198) 1 unit
- Draw no bet - Newcastle United (+108) 1.5 units
- Most cards - Newcastle United (-105) 1 unit
- Player shots on target - Jonjo Shelvey 1+ shots on target (+125) 0.5 units
Bonus Picks
- Parlay - Brighton v Aston Villa to draw & Crystal Palace v Burnley to draw (+1152) 0.5 units
- Parlay - Brighton v Aston Villa both teams to score & Crystal Palace v Burnley both teams to score (+273) 1 unit
Sunday, February 27th, 2022
Wolves (+316) at West Ham United (+110) - 9:00 am ET
West Ham were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle last week and if we take a look back at last weekend's write-up prior to the game, it shouldn't have come as a surprise that Newcastle got something from the game.
"If we look at West Ham's last ten league games, they have four wins, four losses and two draws. Of the four wins, two came against Watford (19th), one against Norwich City (18th) and one against Crystal Palace (13th). The two draws came against Leicester City (11th) and Burnley (20th) while their defeats came against teams currently 4th, 6th, 10th and 15th in the league."
They beat the teams they're expected to beat and they do have wins against Liverpool and Chelsea on the ledger this season. But they haven't beaten a current top-10 team in the league since December 04th. Of the 11 leagues games they have played since then, eight have been against teams in the bottom half of the league. The three games that weren't all ended in a defeat.
Wolves form has been excellent and in their last nine league games, with their only two defeats coming in one-goal losses to Arsenal. Despite goals being hard to come by for most of the season (24 in 25 games), they have found the net in eight of those nine games, scoring 12 in total. In their last six games, the two matches against Arsenal are the only ones in which they've failed to score two or more.
The oddsmakers have Wolves as heavier underdogs than I expected and given the two teams' respective form, I certainly see them being able to get something from the game.
Manchester City (17) is the only team to have conceded fewer goals than Wolves this season (20) and Arsenal's 95th minute winner on Thursday was the first time in 14 league games that Wolves have conceded twice in a game. That run also includes a 1-0 home win against West Ham.
Remarkably, Wolves have only conceded one first-half goal in their 13 away games, although Thursday saw them score only their fifth first half away game. In the second half of away games, they have scored nine and conceded nine. West Ham at home (13 games) have scored nine and conceded nine goals in the first half while the second half of those games have seen them score 15 and concede ten.
It certainly feels like the second half will be where we see the majority of goals, especially from the away team. The odds are too short for me to fully get behind but a goalless (or just one goal scored) first half certainly looks on the cards.
We'll also make a small play on Wolves striker Raul Jimenez finding the back of the net. After recovering from a horrific head injury, he's finally getting back to somewhere near his best and has scored two goals in his last five league games. He had a great chance to score on Thursday and has registered 13 shots in his last six games.
Jimenez scored the only goal of the game when these two met in November and has four goals in six league games against West Ham so certainly enjoys playing against them. Providing he starts the game, I'm backing him to make it five in seven against his opponents.
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 2 Wolves
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Wolves (+316) 1 unit
- Draw no bet - Wolves (+180) 1 unit
- Highest scoring half - 2nd Half (+105) 1 unit
- Team to score 2nd half - Wolves (+110) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Raul Jimenez (+260) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
