EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 30: English Premier League

Last week didn't quite go our way. Despite picking winners in all three games, we finished with a 72.5% ROI. That wasn't helped by Southampton's shock 2-1 home defeat against Watford where one less yellow card or one more goal would've seen us secure a profit on the game. It was a similar tale with Leeds United and their 2-1 win at home to Norwich. Two injury-time goals prevented us from profiting and a penalty award was strangely overturned, again costing us a profit. Burnley also cost us a win late, conceding twice in the final ten minutes at Brentford. This week, there are only four games on the slate so we're just going to have a quick preview of each game and pick a couple of bets that appeal in each of them.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

• Total picks: 111-180-15 (-25.74 units & 90.97% ROI)
• Match results: 33-41

Friday, March 18th, 2022

Leeds United (+241) at Wolves (+125) - 4:00 pm ET

Wolves' campaign looks back on track with back-to-back wins and clean sheets coming into the weekend. Leeds' eight-game winless run ended with their 2-1 win against Norwich last weekend but they needed a 94th-minute winner to secure the three points, although in truth they should have been out of sight long before Norwich's 91st-minute equalizer.

I can't look beyond the home team from winning this one. Before last weekend, Leeds had gone four games without a goal and they're yet to keep a clean sheet in their last fifteen league games. Wolves (23) have conceded the fourth-fewest goals this season and will be looking for their twelfth clean sheet of the season.

I also like the bookings market in this one. Leeds (85) have been shown more yellow cards than anyone else in the league and Wolves (48) have been shown the seventh-fewest. Wolves haven't received more than two bookings in any of their last five games and only four in total during those games.

Leeds have been shown three or more yellow cards in five of their last six games, totaling 23 in that time. They average 2.7 yellow cards per away game while Wolves average 1.7 yellow cards per home game. I expect the away team to pick up more bookings than the hosts.

Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 0 Leeds United

Betting Picks

• Moneyline - Wolves (+125) 1 unit
• Handicap bookings - Leeds United -0.5 (-114) 1 unit

Saturday, March 19th, 2022

Arsenal (+144) at Aston Villa (+203) - 8:30 am ET

Arsenal's five-game winning run was ended by Liverpool on Wednesday and this will be their third game in less than a week with Manager Mikel Arteta questioning the fairness of the scheduling recently. Aston Villa's three-game winning streak was ended at three by West Ham United last weekend.

Arsenal's form has been very good despite their midweek loss, with just two defeats in their last 12 EPL games, both coming against the top-two teams in the league. A third game in less than a week might stretch an already thin squad so they could be up against it on Saturday.

Aston Villa's form has been so up-and-down, it's hard to know what to expect. But they have plenty of attacking talent to cause anyone in the league a problem and in 13 league games at home, they've failed to score just once and have found the net at least twice in eight of those games. They have only four home clean sheets.

Arsenal's struggled in the second half of away games and have the second-worst record in the second period of away games. They've only outscored their opponents on the road in second halves once and in 12 away games, have six goals. Three of them came at bottom of the table Norwich City. They do have 13 first half goals away from home.

Before their loss against Liverpool, when Arsenal's previous winning run was ended by defeat against Manchester City, they struggled to a goalless draw with Burnley. I see a similar story here with the game being quite a close affair and a share of the points could be on the card.

We'll also make a play on the corners market, with neither team reaching seven corners in the game. Arsenal have only reached that mark once in 12 away games while Aston Villa have also reached that total just once in their 13 homes games.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 1 Arsenal

Betting Picks

• To score 1st half - Arsenal (+106) 1 unit
• Race to 7 corners - Neither (-135) 1 unit

Sunday, March 20th, 2022

Brentford (+248) at Leicester City (+124) - 10:00 am ET

Brentford have won their last two games to ease relegation fears and have found their goalscoring form again with five goals in those two wins. That's largely been down to top scorer Ivan Toney who has scored all five of their goals in the last two games and is responsible for all of Brentford's last seven EPL goals (five games).

Three of his last five goals have come from the penalty spot and this is something we'll be looking at for this week. Leicester City (seven) have conceded the second most penalties this season, including one last week in their 2-0 defeat at Arsenal. No team has taken more penalties than Brentford this season, with six.

The referee for this game will be Darren England who has awarded seven penalties in 11 EPL games this season. He's taken charge of four Brentford games this season, in which three penalties have been taken. Anyone who reads my articles will know I'm highly critical of Leicester's defense (especially Çağlar Söyüncü who is seemingly always on the verge of a mishap and gave away a penalty last weekend) so I'm expecting a penalty to be taken this week.

Leicester managed to squeak through their Europa Conference League tie with Rennes on Thursday and despite making some changes to their starting XI, their squad is being stretched and their form in EPL games following a European match has been up-and-down (as it is for so many).

In the nine EPL games Leicester have played following a midweek European game, they have four wins, two draws and three defeats. Last weekend was the first occasion where they failed to score following a European tie and they have 19 goals scored and 12 conceded in those nine games.

With an average of 3.2 goals in Leicester's games after a European cup fixture and with three or more goals in six of the nine games, we'll be backing over 2.5 goals in this game.

While I think Brentford can spring an upset, I can also see a scenario where Leicester runs out convincing winners. With the midweek rest for Brentford, it's added to the uncertainty so I'm hedging against playing the moneyline in this game and will stick to the goals and props.

Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 2 Brentford

Betting Picks

• Total goals - Over 2.5 (-106) 1 unit
• To score anytime - Ivan Toney (+140) 0.5 units
• A penalty to be taken - Yes (+163) 0.5 units
• Draw no bet - Brentford (+142) 0.5 units

West Ham United (+405) at Tottenham (-137) - 12:30 am ET

The final game of the weekend sees rivals West Ham head to Tottenham with both teams still eyeing up fourth place and qualification to next season's Champions League. Both teams had midweek fixtures but they were very different and may lead to the hosts having an edge.

Whilst I don't necessarily agree with the odds, I do fancy Tottenham to win this following a routine 2-0 victory against Brighton on Wednesday. West Ham had to play extra-time on Thursday as they overcame a 1-0 first-leg deficit to beat Sevilla 2-0 and progress to the quarter-finals of the Europa League.

The differences in their midweek fixtures could be a key factor but I think the odds on Tottenham winning are too short, especially against a team they've failed to beat in their last three league games (including a 3-3 draw in which they led 3-0 after 16 minutes and still led by that scoreline with less than ten minutes to play).

This fixture can throw up some memorable games and moments so I'm not looking to play the moneyline, but a small sprinkling on West Ham getting something from the game is something I'd be able to get behind. Instead, we're going to back both teams scoring in this game, something that's happened in three of the last five league meetings between these two.

Tottenham's Harry Kane has seven goals in his last six league games and has scored in each of his last four. In 17 EPL games against West Ham, Kane has 11 goals and at plus odds, we'll take him to score again Sunday.

In Tottenham's 28 league games this season, there have been 38 first-half goals and 41 second-half goals. In West Ham's 29 EPL games, there have been 35 first-half goals and 49 second-half goals. I expect some goals in this one so I'll be backing a goal to be scored in both halves too.

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 1 West Ham United

Betting Picks

• Both teams to score - Yes (-134) 1.5 units
• A goal scored in both halves - Yes (-150) 1.5 units
• To score anytime - Harry Kane (+105) 1 unit

Parlay

• Wolves win, Arsenal to score 1st half, Brentford/Leicester over 2.5 goals, Tottenham/West Ham both teams to score (+1473) 1 unit

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

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