RADIO
It's been a tumultuous week in the Premier League. The European Super League was formed and then ended within 48 hours, Tottenham fired Head Coach Jose Mourinho, Sheffield United got relegated and fans across the league have united to condemn the owners of six clubs. These are the sort of intangibles that can have an impact on players and games so we need to tread carefully. This weekend also sees the final of the Carabao Cup so we only have eight games to choose from. As a result, we're going to look at some slightly higher odds picks but please tread more carefully with your stakes.
- Picks total - 39 out of 90
- Correct scores - 10 out of 89
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't preview every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, April 24th, 2021
Brighton @ Sheffield United - 3:00 pm ET
Brighton probably needs just one more win to ensure they avoid relegation. Credible draws against Everton and Chelsea now mean beating the bottom of the table and already relegated Sheffield United should secure Premier League football for next season. Brighton has only lost one away game to a team in the bottom half and that was a 1-0 defeat against West Brom when they missed two penalties. In seven such games, they have just one clean sheet and have scored in all but one game (outside the West Brom penalty debacle),
Sheffield United was finally relegated last weekend after losing to Wolves. Ordinarily, relegation being confirmed helps a team relax and start playing better, something we've seen regularly over the years. While I think we see some of that with Sheffield United, they've been so bad I don't think they'll win here but I do think they score (something they have only done in 14 of 32 games). Their relegation will likely lead to a more entertaining game than they normally partake in but they will likely still come up short. Nonetheless, we'll hedge things with our pick.
Brighton 16th - 34 pts
Sheffield United 20th - 14 pts
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 3 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +1600)
Betting Pick:
- Both To Score/Total Goals - Yes & Over 2.5 @ +210 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, April 25th, 2021
Burnley @ Wolves - 7:00 am ET
Burnley is back in relegation bother after three straight defeats. Their form has been pretty dreadful for weeks now with just one win in their last nine games and just two wins in 13. They have found the back of the net in each of their last six games but have now gone seven games without a clean sheet. That is very "un-Burnley like" so I believe they will try and revert back to their strength of grinding out a result against the fifth-lowest scorers in the league.
Wolves have now ground out back-to-back 1-0 wins. but both have come against teams in the bottom three. They're one of the few teams that have won more points at home than away this season but they have yet to win consecutive home league games all season. Despite only scoring 32 goals in 32 games this season, they have managed to score in 13 of their 16 home games.
When looking at total goals in their games, Burnley ranks tied-2nd lowest (71 in 32) and Wolves ranks tied-4th lowest (73 in 32). Burnley will want to avoid defeat and with games against Sheffield United and Fulham still to come and will see a point here as a big step towards survival. The last time Burnley lost three league games in a row, they played out a 0-0 draw against West Brom and will likely base their game plan on a similar type of performance.
Burnley 17th - 33 pts
Wolves 12th - 41 pts
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +600)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Draw @ +235 (Pinnacle)
Manchester United @ Leeds United - 9:00 am ET
Manchester United has a Europa League semi-final first leg tie against Roma on the Thursday following this game. Given they are highly unlikely to finish anywhere other than second in the league, it's more than probable they rotate their lineup in league games as they prioritize the Europa League fixtures. Their league form has quietly been exceptional with five straight league wins and just one defeat in 26 league games. They have also yet to lose away in the league all season.
On the flip side of that, Leeds has yet to win a home league game against a team currently above them in the league. But they come into this game in good form, unbeaten in five games which included draws against Chelsea and Liverpool and a win against Manchester City. With Leeds' recent form (and positive results against top-5 teams) along with Manchester United's focus likely being on their Europa League game, I can see a surprise being sprung.
Manchester United 2nd - 66 pts
Leeds United 10th - 46 pts
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 1 Manchester United (Pinnacle odds +1150)
Betting Pick:
- Draw no bet - Leeds United @ +205 (Pinnacle & DraftKings)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks as a parlay @ +3067
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 34 picks.
