RADIO
Last weekend told a familiar tale. One winner and two games where just one goal would've seen us clean up. Leicester City failed to beat Southampton despite the latter playing over 80 minutes with ten men. Leeds failed to score away from home for only the fourth time all season. Chelsea did win in a low-scoring game as we predicted but even then, one fewer goal and we'd have bagged the correct score pick too. A reminder as to why we're preaching caution at this late stage of the season. This matchweek has 15 games over seven days as teams catch up on previous postponements. We'll avoid the midweek games as they can easily be impacted by the weekend games and offer up more unpredictability at this stage.
- Picks total - 40 out of 95
- Correct scores - 10 out of 94
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't preview every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Friday, May 07th, 2021
Newcastle United @ Leicester City - 3:00 pm ET
Leicester City failed to beat Southampton last weekend as we mentioned, but still looked good and created enough chances to win the game. They remain in a battle for a top-4 place and Champions League qualification and will need two wins from their remaining four games to secure that. They have the FA Cup final next Saturday as well so it remains to be seen what sort of team they put out on Friday. I suspect they still go with their strongest XI with maybe one or two small changes as they won't want to miss out on qualification for Europe's top club competition.
Newcastle United can still mathematically get relegated, although it's highly unlikely now. That showed in their performance last week where Arsenal cruised to a 2-0 victory over them without their opponents needing to get out of first gear. They very much looked like a team already on their Summer holidays despite scoring eight goals in their previous four games. This was their first home game without scoring since December (nine games).
While I think Leicester City wins, the odds aren't appealing. What is appealing is the first half market. Newcastle has the second-fewest goals scored in the first half (12) and fifth-most conceded (24) and have yet to lead an away game at half-time (0-8-9) scoring just once in the first half on the road.
Leicester City 3rd - 63 pts
Newcastle United 17th - 36 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 0 Newcastle (Pinnacle odds +625)
Betting Pick:
- First half money line - Leicester City to win @ +102 (Pinnacle)
Saturday, May 08th, 2021
Crystal Palace @ Sheffield United - 10:00 am ET
Crystal Palace's season continues to peter out into nothingness. It's been a largely uninspiring season for them and their expected goals scored (xG) of 25.6 is the lowest in the league while their expected goals conceded (xGA) of 51.0 is the fourth highest. Defeat last weekend to soon-to-be Champions Manchester City means they've lost three straight league games for the first time this season and have now scored just five goals in their last eight games and haven't scored more than once in a game during that run. Last season, they lost seven straight games before drawing on the final day of the season to end their campaign and we're seeing a similar run here.
We mentioned it enough in recent weeks that teams who get relegated seem to relax and play better football, generally picking up some victories to end the season. Sheffield United did just that a fortnight ago before losing 4-0 to Tottenham last weekend. That continues to be a concern as they have had a tendency to capitulate when they go a goal behind but Crystal Palace doesn't have the firepower to do that and in such a meaningless game, I think the home side can pull off an upset. It's the kind of game where all signs point to a low-scoring game so it ends up being a 7-goal thriller. But we'll play the likelier outcome with some insurance.
Sheffield United 20th - 17 pts
Crystal Palace 13th - 38 pts
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 0 Crystal Palace (Pinnacle odds +750)
Betting Pick:
- Draw no bet - Sheffield United @ +112 (Pinnacle)
Saturday, May 08th, 2021
Brighton @ Wolves - 7:00 am ET
On paper, this game appears to be pretty uninspiring and it certainly has the potential to be a non-entity. Brighton picked up their first win in five games last week and their 2-0 win against Leeds United which also saw them score for the first time in four league games. Despite Brighton only winning eight games all season (fourth fewest), their goal difference of -4 is second-best among the bottom half teams. That's largely in part due to nine of their 13 defeats this season being by one goal. Five of their eight wins have been by one goal. It should come as no surprise that they lead the league in draws (13).
Wolves have a very depleted squad and struggled to a 1-1 draw against 19th place West Brom last weekend. Similarly to Brighton, they have been involved in close games throughout the season with nine of their 11 wins and nine of their 14 defeats have been by one goal. They've also been prone to getting the odd shellacking with three defeats of 4-0. Brighton hasn't scored four goals in a Premier League game since February 2018 so I don't foresee that happening here.
These two teams have met five times in the Premier League. Four of those games have ended in draws with Brighton winning their first encounter 1-0. The two games played at Wolves have both ended 0-0. I think it'll be a similar result for two teams playing for nothing but pride.
Wolves 12th - 42 pts
Brighton 14th - 37 pts
Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 0 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +725) *A reminder to never bet on 0-0 as a correct score. Instead, bet on the goalscorer market as "no goalscorer". It gives the same odds and means if there is only an own goal scored, it still pays out.
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - Draw @ +242 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks as a parlay @ +1365
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 35 picks.
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