RADIO
We've reached the penultimate weekend of the season and it's a smaller slate with the FA Cup Final taking place on Saturday. Much of the league has been decided with all three relegation places now confirmed and Manchester City crowned as Champions. There are a couple of games on Thursday still to play and the qualification spots for European Competitions are still undecided. That all adds up to even more unpredictability with so little on the line for many teams, so tread carefully. We came close to a +242 winner last week but were denied by a last-minute Wolves winner and Leicester City let us down by conceding two first-half goals at home to a Newcastle United team who had scored two first-half goals away all season.
- Picks total - 40 out of 98
- Correct scores - 10 out of 94
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't preview every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, May 15th, 2021
Leeds United @ Burnley - 7:30 am ET
Leeds United has been the team for goals and excitement this season. The 106 total goals in their 35 games is tied-3rd most and the 110.5 expected goals total is the most. That being said, their recent form has seen them tighten up defensively with seven goals conceded in their last eight games. Last weekend's 3-1 win against Tottenham was the first time in ten games in which Leeds had scored more than twice. They are still fighting for a top-10 finish which won't bring anything other than some more prize money and pride but will still be a significant achievement in their first season back in the EPL.
For Burnley, although they can't be relegated, they can finish anywhere from 17th to 12th which will offer some incentive. Renowned as a defensive team, Burnley has broken away from that tag in recent weeks. They've scored 15 goals in their last nine games and haven't been shut out in any of those games. They had only scored 18 goals in their previous 26 games so it's been a big turnaround. That has led to conceding more, with 17 goals against them in their last ten games having conceded 30 in their previous 25 games.
While both teams have goals in them and have been susceptible to conceding, I do think both teams score but I don't think we have a huge goals total so will take under 4.5 total goals. Only four times this season have Burnley games had more than four goals (once in their last 16). While Leeds' games have had more than four goals in them eight times this season, that's only happened once in their last 19 games. Chris Wood's recent form and aerial threat offers a good prop bet to score anytime (+130) against a team who has struggled defending set-pieces this season.
Burnley 15th - 39 pts
Leeds United 10th - 50 pts
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Leeds United (Pinnacle odds +650)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Both teams to score and under 4.5 total goals @ +107 (Draftkings)
Sunday, May 16th, 2021
Sheffield United @ Everton - 2:00 pm ET
When Sheffield United got relegated, we correctly predicted they'd managed to win a game. That was followed by a 4-0 and a 2-0 defeat. Earlier this week, striker Olly McBurnie was arrested after a video emerged appearing to show him involved in an altercation. It's safe to say, they just want this season to end so they can regroup for next season. Since their only away win of the season at Manchester United in January, they've scored just once away from home in seven games and conceded 17 (losing every game).
Everton has to play Aston Villa on Thursday and still has hopes of finishing in the top-7 which should secure Europa League football for next season. They've been one of the most unpredictable teams all season and lost to Aston Villa less than two weeks ago. This calendar year, Everton has lost to Fulham, Burnley and Newcastle but has wins against Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham. They've been much better away (36 points) than at home (19 points) and their last ten home games yield a 1-6-3 record.
Home struggles aside, Everton should still win this comfortably and I like the -1.25 handicap at +101 but we'll play it a little safer as I don't anticipate Everton scoring more than two (three at best), something they haven't done in their last 15 home games.
Everton 9th - 55 pts
Sheffield United 20th - 17 pts
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 0 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Everton to win and under 3.5 total goals @ +100 (Draftkings)
Saturday, May 15th, 2021
Chelsea vs Leicester City - 7:00 am ET
FA Cup Final played at Wembley Stadium (neutral venue)
We're going away from the EPL for our final pick and will go to the FA Cup instead. The final sees two teams in the top-4 of the league go head-to-head but as the old adage goes; "league form goes out the window in cup games".
That being said, I still think Chelsea win in a tight and cagey affair. Chelsea lost on Wednesday to Arsenal 1-0 after they made seven changes to their starting XI. Leicester City won their first game in three by beating a much-changed Manchester United team on Tuesday. Since Thomas Tuchel took charge at Chelsea, they've tightened things up defensively with 11 clean sheets in 17 league games.
FA Cup finals are generally tighter than league games, especially when the two teams in the final are closely matched. Of the last 16 FA cup finals, 14 have been decided by one goal or was a draw after 90 minutes. The only exceptions are Manchester City (1st) beating Watford (11th) 6-0 in the 2018-19 final and Arsenal (3rd) beating Aston Villa (17th) 4-0 in the 2014-15 final. Of those 14 games, 12 of them had under 3.5 goals and five of them were 1-0 after 90 minutes. This is Chelsea's fourth FA cup final in five years with just one win (1-0 versus Manchester United) and two losses (both 2-1 versus Arsenal).
I expect the game to be level at half-time with Chelsea winning it in the second half (available at +400). Leicester City will likely try to keep things tight and look for their creative players to make something happen on the counter-attack, but Chelsea has been too good defensively recently to succumb to them. If you're feeling brave, Chelsea to win by one goal is available at +245.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 0 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +525)
Betting Pick:
- Single-game parlay - Chelsea to Win and under 3.5 total goals @ +138 (Pinnacle)
Parlay
- You can take all three picks as a parlay @ +885
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back in midweek for the matchweek 37 picks.
