RADIO
Our winning streak came to an end last weekend. Sunday's game did see us break even with West Ham leading the corners market and the second half being the highest scoring. But the damage was done Saturday, with Wolves and Aston Villa producing the game of the weekend. That was after a dull first half which was scoreless and just four combined corners in it. Wolves ended up coming back from 2-0 behind with ten minutes to go and won the game with a deflected free-kick in the 94th minute. That all culminated in a total of 82.22% ROI which wasn't a disaster so we go again this week.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 31-34-3 (+10.97 U)
- Match results: 11-7
It's an intriguing slate this week and rather than a couple of games throwing up a few enticing picks, there are lots of games that have a couple of interesting bets so we're looking at fewer bets but across three games this week. That being said, there are really close games to call so moneyline bets are difficult but probably offer up some of the best odds we'll likely see again this season.
Saturday, October 23rd, 2021
Burnley (+310) at Southampton (-101) - 10:00 am ET
Burnley is still looking for their first win of the season, something Southampton achieved last week when beating Leeds United 1-0. Bottom of the table Norwich City is the only team with fewer goals scored than Burnley (5) and Southampton (6) and this shapes up to be another low-scoring affair.
In Southampton's four home games this season, three have been 0-0 at half time with the only other game being 1-0. In their eight games, there has yet to be more than one goal in the first half with five of them being 0-0. Four of their six goals have come in the second half of games.
Burnley's second-half record makes depressing reading, with seven of their 11 goals conceded coming in the second half and in their four away games, they have conceded six second-half goals and have lost the second 45 minutes in all four games.
Burnley has the third most yellow cards on the season (18) while Southampton ranks tied-9th (15). Southampton's opponents have been awarded 15 yellow cards while Burnley's opponents have had 11. Last weekend's defeat to Manchester City was the first time this season Burnley's opponent has had the most bookings in a game while Southampton has only had more bookings than an opponent twice this season.
The corners market also appeals here with both teams having had 44 corners this season (tied-7th). Burnley has had five or more corners in five of their eight games, with two of the games they failed to reach the mark being against Liverpool and Manchester City. Southampton has had five or more corners in six of their eight games with one of the games they failed to reach the mark being against Chelsea.
If I had to pick a winner, I'd lean towards Southampton but I can't bring myself to back them and the value play is going for the underdogs here given their respective odds. I do like Burnley receiving the most cards and both teams getting a few corners so we'll focus our attention on these markets.
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 1 Burnley
Betting Picks:
- Team most cards - Burnley (+115) 1 unit
- Both teams total corners - Over 4.5 (+163) 0.5 units
- Single-game parlay - Southampton over 0.5 goals second half & total under 1.5 goals first half (+130) 1 unit
Newcastle United (+307) at Crystal Palace (-103) - 10:00 am ET
Newcastle United finally parted ways with manager Steve Bruce this week which leaves me a little apprehensive about picking a winner here. Some teams can galvanize without a permanent manager while some go into their shells and look directionless. I have no idea what it will do for winless Newcastle but I can't bring myself to back them given their record so far.
Crystal Palace was seconds away from an impressive win at Arsenal on Monday but was denied by a 94th-minute equalizer. In truth, they were pretty much gifted their two goals in the 2-2 draw and it marked their third straight draw. They've now scored nine of their ten goals this season in the second half and despite failing to score in three games this season, two of those games were against Chelsea and Manchester City. They've scored two or more in four of their six other games.
Newcastle's 19 goals conceded is by far the worst in the league and their 15.0 xGA (expected goals against) is also the most in the league. They are still without a clean sheet this season and have conceded two or more in five of their eight games. Only once in four away games have they conceded fewer than two (a 1-1 draw at Watford which saw Watford denied a late winner by a VAR decision).
They will be hoping Wilfried Zaha returns from illness to spearhead their attack this weekend. Odsonne Edouard is their top scorer this season with three goals in just five games following a Summer transfer from Celtic. He scored again on Monday and even if Zaha is fit for this game, he should retain his place in the starting lineup. Monday was only the third game he's started after making two substitute appearances to begin his season but I don't foresee him not making it four straight starts for the home side.
The referee for this game is Darren England who has brandished 14 cards in his two games so far. Newcastle's 21 bookings this season are tied for the most in the league while Crystal Palace has had just 11 (tied-15th most). No matter how they set up for this game, Newcastle players will want to at least show plenty of effort and desire for any prospective new manager so I expect them to be making plenty of challenges and likely remain the most booked team in the EPL this season after this game has ended.
This is a game that could easily end up 1-0 to either team but given their recent form and the results they've produced, the wise money is on more goals and the home side taking all three points. Crystal Palace's record without Zaha is pretty dreadful so it's critical that he does start for them. If he isn't fit, I don't think I could back Crystal Palace to win but still see both teams finding a couple of goals apiece.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3 - 2 Newcastle United
Betting Picks:
- Team most cards - Newcastle United (+100) 1 unit
- Crystal Palace total goals - Over 1.5 (+100) 1 unit
- Highest scoring half - Second half (+100) 1 unit
- Anytime goalscorer - Odsonne Edouard (+175) 0.5 units
Sunday, October 24th, 2021
Liverpool (+134) at Manchester United (+209) - 11:30 am ET
Two teams trending in different directions head into this rival clash and it's not often the away team is the favorite when visiting Manchester United. But that's a reflection of the sides' recent form with Manchester United winless in their last three league games, while Liverpool is unbeaten this season and has a league-high 22 goals in eight games.
Liverpool has scored 16 goals in their last five league games and only Chelsea has prevented them from scoring twice in a game so far. Manchester United's 16 goals scored are tied-2nd most but they have just one clean sheet on the season and their defensive issues were on full display last weekend when Leicester City scored four against them.
Both teams won their midweek Champions League games by a scoreline of 3-2 but even then, the two games highlighted where the two teams are right now. Liverpool beat Spanish Champions Atletico Madrid away on Tuesday while Manchester United had to overturn a 2-0 half-time deficit at home to Atalanta, who currently sits sixth in Italy's Serie A.
For Liverpool, Mo Salah looks like he's back to his best form and is creating his own 'goal of the season' competition in recent games. His seven in the EPL is tied for the most this season and he's found the net in ten of the 11 games he's played for Liverpool so far. He's got a decent record against Manchester United, scoring four in eight games and the two league goals he's scored against Sunday's opponents have both come in the 90th minute or later.
Of Salah's 102 EPL goals for Liverpool, 22 of them have come in the 76th minute or later. The four goals Manchester United have conceded at home this season have all come in the second half and I wouldn't bet against Liverpool's talisman making the difference late in the game here.
Manchester United have their own match winners, especially in Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo did score the winner against Atalanta but has failed to find the net in his last three EPL games (two starts), with only one shot on target from eight attempts in those games. I wouldn't back against him being the match-winner either but Liverpool looks by far the better side recently and Salah is the most dangerous player in the league right now.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 - 3 Liverpool
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Liverpool (+134) 1 unit
- Liverpool total goals - Over 1.5 (-115) 1 unit
- Anytime goalscorer - Mo Salah (+135) 0.5 units
- Last goalscorer - Mo Salah (+350) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
