RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I had taken some time off from DFS over the last week or so, but I am back this week! On Wednesday, both top teams (Manchester City and Liverpool) proved me wrong and showed up to play scoring five and three goals, respectively. West Ham was a no-show on the slate as well, which made for some pretty ugly lineups on my end. Good thing we have another decently sized EPL slate on Thursday with three games! All of the games except for one will start at the same time too so we won't have to do a ton of guessing on starting lineups. Let's bounce back from Wednesday with a new slate!
Since the size of this slate is on the smaller end, we might have to force in expensive plays purely due to a lack of other options. With only six sides in action, there will still be plenty of good plays, but prioritizing your studs will be key. Keep reading this breakdown for my DFS soccer picks on RotoBaller and see how to have success on Thursday's slate.
With the conclusion of the Bundesliga season, I have turned my focus to solely EPL now. If you want to chop it up with myself and other RotoBaller writers, consider becoming a premium member and joining our ever-growing community of DFS and fantasy sports enthusiasts! In this article, I will be providing you with my English Premier League daily fantasy soccer lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/9/20 for the slate that locks at 1:00 pm ET. Be sure to also check out our other DFS lineup picks for other active sports. You can always find me on Twitter @vdray5 if you have any questions. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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EPL DFS Lineup Picks - Overview
Bournemouth vs Tottenham
What an awful wreck Bournemouth has been. They have not won a game since February 1st, and they have only secured one point in their last eight Premier League games. Tottenham (-0.5) will be favored in this game, and they have no business losing even on the road. Bournemouth's defense has been bleeding goals during Project Restart. Tottenham has the potential to score multiple goals in this game and should control possession as well. The goal total over/under is 2.5, and Tottenham could realistically hit that on their own if they play well.
Everton vs Southampton
At first glance, this game should be very evenly played. Vegas agrees and set the spread for this game at 0.0 with the home team, Everton, favored on the money line at +110. However, Southampton have quietly been a top-five road team this season points-wise with eight away wins (4th most in the league). Studs from this game could go under-owned with people focusing on Tottenham and Manchester United stars, but there will be some strong one-off plays from this match. The goal total over/under is 2.5
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
This game has the potential to get ugly. Manchester United (-1.5) are large favorites even on the road. They've been scoring many goals since the EPL returned (2.8 per game to be exact), and now they're facing one of the league's worst defenses. While Villa have been better defensively during Project Restart (1.2 goals allowed per game compared to 2.0 earlier in the season), Manchester United should roll in this game. The goal total over/under is a slate-high in this game for a reason. Manchester United, along with Tottenham, will be the chalk on this slate.
A quick note: EPL scoring on FanDuel has stayed the same as it was pre-COVID. This means that chances created are back to being worth three points and crosses will not give you any points.
FanDuel DFS Forwards / Midfielders
It is going to be extremely tough to decide which elite attackers to roster especially since all five of the guys at the top are good plays. Let's start with Tottenham. Harry Kane ($21) is tied for the best anytime scoring odds on the slate at -110. I have already mentioned how poor Bournemouth's defense has been lately. To get more specific, they are allowing exactly 3.0 goals per game in their four games since play resumed. That is horrid. They just conceded four to Newcastle and then five to Manchester United. Tottenham, even on the road, can put up those kinds of numbers in this game. Kane has two goals in his last three games and will be a massive threat to find the back of the net again. Son Heung-Min ($19) comes at a small discount if you want cheaper Tottenham exposure. His fantasy game is less dependent on goals than Kane's. I would highly suggest getting one of them, and playing both is a fair strategy as well.
All three elite Manchester United attackers are 100% in play as well. Bruno Fernandes ($22) has been as good as it gets since joining United in the winter transfer window. He is averaging a crazy 34.1 FanDuel points on the back of six goals, 20 chances created, and 15 shots on goal. He now faces a Villa side that has given up a ton of all three of those all season long. This is a prime spot for him. Anthony Martial ($20) has the best odds out of this trio to score at -110, which matches Kane's odds. His form has been great too, however, his floor is significantly lower than that of Fernandes.
After being one of the only relevant United fantasy guys earlier this season, Marcus Rashford ($18) actually comes at a large discount now. He is +100 to score, and this is a great spot for him as well. Out of these five studs, I highly recommend getting at least two of them in your lineup. If there is enough value to get three, that's even better. Mason Greenwood ($17) has taken his play to another level over the last week or so. He's a great mid-tier option no matter who you have at the top of your lineup. Paul Pogba ($15) is also very affordable for his game in this matchup. He is yet to score during Project Restart, but he has three straight 14+ point games. This is a good matchup, and he is underpriced for his ceiling.
Goal scorers from the Southampton @ Everton game are not in a bad spot, and they will be much lower owned than MU/TOT stars. However, I do think that their ceilings are lower. Any of the five players previously mentioned could score two goals on Thursday, but that seems far less likely for Richarlison ($18), Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($17), and Danny Ings ($17). DCL's form is not good, but taking a shot on Richarlison or Ings is a good large-field GPP idea. Ings is having an incredible season and has shown he can score on the road. They are right next to each other when it comes to anytime scoring odds at +140 for Richarlison and +130 for Ings.
Value at the attacking position here is brutal. If either Lucas Moura ($12) or Giovani lo Celso ($11) were in good form, they would immediately enter my lineup in this matchup. I still think there is some merit it taking them, though, if you want some salary left to spend on a defender. Oriol Romeu ($11) has been collecting enough peripheral stats where he has actually outscored Moura and lo Celso in the last few games. Anthony Gordon ($9) is viable if you really want a deep punt as well.
FanDuel DFS Defenders
It's not likely many people will have the salary for a top-tier defender, but Lucas Digne ($15) is in a solid spot. He's been far better at home, and now he gets a pretty good matchup where he will do some attacking but he'll also be forced into a decent amount of defensive action.
Nathan Ake ($14) is another top-tier defender to target but for a different reason. Tottenham allow plenty of defensive peripherals to opposing defenders, and Ake should feast in this matchup. Fellow Bournemouth defender, Diego Rico ($10), is also high in my player pool for the same reason. His price has dropped since he has not been in the lineup a lot lately, so this is a great time to take advantage of that. Lloyd Kelly ($7) is even viable for uber-cheap too.
Toby Alderweireld ($10) is simply too cheap. He has outscored his $10 price tag in 14 of his last 16 games. Bournemouth won't force a ton of defensive action, however, Tottenham has a shot at a clean sheet bonus. With that, he'd only need three or four other stats to hit double digits for cheap.
FanDuel DFS Goalkeepers
David de Gea ($14) is in the best spot out of any of the six GKs on this slate. United's defense has been solid on the road, and Aston Villa just are not scoring many goals no matter where they play. United don't have any excuse to lose this game, so de Gea should get a win bonus. He's the most likely goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet as well. It makes sense to pay up for him on this slate.
Hugo Lloris ($13) and the rest of Tottenham's defense has been difficult to trust away from home this season. However, they are facing a Bournemouth team that is as weak as ever. They are the league's third-least scoring team with 0.97 goals scored per game, and they have already been shutout twice in four games since the restart. At the very least, Tottenham should win the game and give Lloris the win bonus. He likely won't be asked to make many saves, but he should come away with the clean sheet bonus as well.
It seems unlikely that either Jordan Pickford ($11) or Alex McCarthy ($10) can keep a clean sheet on Thursday. Plus, I don't foresee either making enough saves to make up for conceding a goal. Lastly, this game is the most likely to end in a draw which would mean no win bonus for them either. I would stick to David de Gea or Hugo Lloris depending on the rest of your lineup.
Thanks for reading my EPL DFS lineup picks breakdown on RotoBaller and good luck!
