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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an odd schedule of EPL games this weekend and into early next week. There is only one game per day Saturday through Tuesday, and there are only single-game contests for these games (FanDuel decided to nix the single-game slate early Saturday morning in favor of the last Bundesliga slate of the year). I will be breaking down each one of these games individually in the same article for ease.
This is obviously a different kind of breakdown I would have normally, but it will still be packed full of the same winning DFS advice! The next large-ish slate will be on Thursday 7/1, but we will take what we can get with some showdowns. Keep reading this breakdown for my DFS soccer picks on RotoBaller and see how to have success on this trio of single-gamers.
I mentioned in my last article that FanDuel appeared to have completely binned the Bundesliga after weeks of no contests, however, FanDuel is returning the Bundesliga to our lives one last time on Saturday. Every single team will be in action at the same exact time on Saturday, so there will be many options. If you want advice on that or any of our other content, consider becoming a premium member and joining our ever-growing community of DFS and fantasy sports enthusiasts! In this article, I will be providing you with my English Premier League daily fantasy soccer lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/28/20 - 6/30/20. Be sure to also check out our other DFS lineup picks for other active sports. You can always find me on Twitter @vdray5 if you have any questions. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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EPL DFS Lineup Picks - Overview
Sunday - Watford vs Southampton
While Southampton appear to have essentially secured themselves another season in England's top flight, this will be a massive chance for their opponent Watford to get some points at home. They sit only one point above the relegation zone as the table currently stands. Watford (+140) are favored on the money line, but this game should be evenly contested. Over/unders do not matter a ton for single-game contests, but for reference, it sits at a low 2.0. Some single-games warrant a 4-1 stack of one team, but this is a game where you can feel more confident with a balanced lineup.
Monday - Crystal Palace vs Burnley
Crystal Palace (+125) will be another very slight home favorite this week against Burnley. Like the first game, goals will likely not come often in this game. Palace's home defense is elite, and Burnley struggle to score on the road. All of this leads to a low 2.0 goal total over/under. Goals are obviously king on a site like FanDuel, however, there is some reason to prioritize guys with strong floors in a game like this. Another balanced lineup is likely going to be in order.
Tuesday - Brighton vs Manchester United
We finally have a game worth stacking one team this week. We have a Manchester United (-0.5) team who is playing well enough to be favored on the road. Although they do struggle a bit on the road, they are far better than Brighton and they're coming off two good results. Brighton are playing well themselves actually with a win over Arsenal and a good 0-0 draw against 3rd place Leicester. It likely won't be a high-scoring affair, but you're going to want to make sure you prioritize your United pieces here. The goal total over/under is only 2.0.
*A quick note: EPL scoring on FanDuel has stayed the same as it was pre-COVID. This means that chances created are back to being worth three points and crosses will not give you any points.
Watford vs Southampton
Danny Ings ($15) is the most likely anytime goalscorer in this game, so it makes sense that he is also the most expensive. He is having the best season out of anyone in this match with 16 goals (tied for 4th in the league). Ings scored a goal and added an assist in a 44.2 fantasy point game against Norwich, but was unproductive last game against Arsenal. He has not struggled scoring on the road this season either. He's a top-tier captain option.
James Ward-Prowse ($14) has had two good fantasy games since the EPL returned. With not many goals expected in this one, he's also a good captain option because he does not need a goal to hit value. If you're going in on Southampton's attacking against Watford (1.5 goals allowed per game), JWP can be paired with Ings. Nathan Redmond ($9) is a cheap option that should fit into any lineup regardless of your strategy with studs.
Watford have been one of the worst attacking teams all season, and that does not appear to be changing any time soon. They only have one goal in their first two games back, and it came from a defender. Troy Deeney ($14) has the team's best odds to score at +175, but that kind of money for him is tough to stomach. The same goes for Ismaila Sarr ($12). Abdoulaye Doucoure ($10) is a better dollar-for-dollar Watford option. He has fair goal upside. Unless you want to get risky, he should not be used in the captain spot, but he is a nice way to fill out your lineup. Will Hughes ($7) is one of my favorite value plays in the game.
It looks like Jannik Vestergaard ($5) will be able to make his return to the field in this game. He's far too cheap for his floor and his ceiling. Adam Masina ($7) has been playing well for Watford on defense, and Christian Kabasele ($8) is an absolute peripherals monster if you have a few extra bucks for him.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
This whole game is awful from a fantasy standpoint. Crystal Palace's home defense is above average as they only allow 0.87 goals per game on home turf. Burnley only average less than one goal scored per game on the road. Together, that makes it difficult to play a Burnley attacker in this game.
Burnley, however, concede 1.73 goals per game on the road. Jordan Ayew ($15) makes the most sense at captain as the game's most likely scorer. Over his last five games, he has three goals and is averaging 23.2 fantasy points. Luka Milivojevic ($13) is overpriced, but if Wilfred Zaha ($11) or Christian Benteke ($10) can get into the starting lineup on Monday, they make sense as a secondary Palace attacker. Andros Townsend ($8) has upside as a low-owned value play, but he is not having a good season and brings a dangerously low floor.
The Burnley side of this is just as unenticing. Dwight McNeil ($15) is really the only guy to pay for. He is overpriced though, and he's facing a tough defense. Ashley Westwood ($11) is a fair mid-tier option, and Josh Brownhill ($4) is a superb value option for minimum price.
I could easily see the highest-scoring play in this game being a defender since both backlines collect defensive stats at a high rate. It's a shame you can only roster one. Patrick van Aanholt ($10) has been playing well, and he has some attacking upside. Joel Ward ($5) is a great value option. James Tarkowski ($10) would be the Burnley defender to pay up for with his excellent peripherals, but his attacking upside is zilch. Ben Mee ($6) can provide some value on Burnley's defense if you want to be different.
Brighton vs Manchester United
Anthony Martial ($16) is white-hot, but is he worth $2 more than Marcus Rashford ($14) and Bruno Fernandes ($14)? Both Rashford and Fernandes have had great floors recently, and it would be great to get both in a lineup (probably chalky). Rashford has a higher ceiling, so he would be the smarter move in your captain spot. Getting two of these three United stud attackers is going to be a winning strategy on this slate.
Daniel James ($7) is as good of a value play as any on this slate.
If you are going with a 4-1 Manchester stack with a Manchester defender, Aaron Mooy ($9) should probably be your Brighton FWD/MID. He has had a strong floor lately. Leandro Trossard ($5) is also a decent play for that cheap.
This is another game where I almost want to play multiple defenders because cheap defenders will likely outscore similarly-priced FWDs/MIDs. Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($10) has not provided a ton of attacking upside, in general, this season making it difficult to pay $10 for his peripherals when you have Luke Shaw ($7) right there for cheaper.
Manchester United do not give up many defensive peripherals, so this is not the best matchup for the Brighton defense. However, Dan Burn ($7) and Tariq Lamptey ($6) are cheap enough where they can hit value with only a few peripherals. Plus, they should be busy in this game as United will attack early and often.
Thanks for reading my EPL DFS lineup picks breakdown on RotoBaller and good luck!
