We now find ourselves passing the quarter-mile marker in this fantasy football race (unless you play in a 17 week league and want to get technical on me), and the standings are really starting to take shape.
Week 4 does not appear to be bringing gifts for those in need, though that's not to say the waiver wire landscape is a total wasteland.
Let’s look at those price tags, which will be based on a $100 FAAB budget. I’ll explore the names that intrigue me which I feel warrant some context.
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks
This week we've got Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater, and Ryan Fitzpatrick on byes, as well as Derek Carr facing the Denver defense so he's pretty much on a bye to me as well.
Jay Cutler (QB, CHI) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8
35% owned in Fleaflicker
Yeah I know, he went against the Oakland Raiders in his return from a hamstring injury, and those stats that he accrued with Martellus Bennett won't always be there thanks to Oakland's refusal to guard tight ends appropriately. Week 5 has the Bears traveling to Arrowhead Stadium and taking on the Chiefs, who just got carved up by Andy Dalton and company. Cutler will hope to get Alshon Jeffery back and have his full arsenal at his disposal. It should be noted that the Bears lost their starting center Will Montgomery to a broken leg, and that isn't fun for anyone (except opposing defenses). Regardless of matchups and surrounding factors, the real takeaway from Week 4 was that Cutler looked pretty good delivering his throws even without Jeffery, and was able to lead an effective fourth quarter drive to set up Robbie Gould for a game winning field goal. You know what you're getting into with Cutler, he slings the ball and will probably have a turnover or two, but he could also find himself in garbage time a lot and having 300 yard and three touchdown games well within reach.
Nick Foles (QB, STL) – FAAB Bid: $3 - 5
33% owned in Fleaflicker
Nick Foles turned a lot of people off in a stinker against the bum Steelers' secondary in Week 3, only to turn around a lead the Rams to a victory over the previously undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals have a good secondary. FootballOutsiders had them ranked as the second best pass defense according to their DVOA stat (Defense adjusted value over average - explained here). Foles ended up completing 16 of 24 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns. Now the reads eerily similar to Mariota's Week 1 line where the touchdowns don't seem to correlate to the yard totals, so it's not as though it was a totally dominant performance. That said, he completed 66% of his passes and it became clear that he and Tavon Austin were clicking. Brian Quick was finally active, though he only saw one target which he didn't connect on. Quick should continue to be worked in, which can only help Foles. The emergence of Todd Gurley also helps bring balance to the Rams offense, and the offensive line looked like they were finally meshing with their new zone blocking scheme. Things are trending up for St. Louis, and if you're desperate for some QB help then Nick Foles should be helpful down the road. I hesitate to recommend his Week 5 matchup against the Packers at Lambeau, and Week 6 is the Rams' bye, but after that they get the Browns, 49ers, Vikings, and Bears. Keep this in mind, as Week 5 should see Foles have to air it out a bit to keep up with Aaron Rodgers at home, but that Week 7-10 stretch looks pretty juicy.
Others To Note:
Sam Bradford (QB, PHI) – 58% owned
Maybe someone cut bait with Bradford after seeing enough of the Eagles' struggles, but Bradford showed that he could still exploit secondaries even with a rather inefficient offense around him. The Eagles continue to flounder in disarray, but they get the terrible Saints defense next, who almost coughed up a win to the Cowboys' B Squad on Sunday night. FAAB Bid: $6 - 10
Alex Smith (QB, KC) – 38% owned
I don't like myself all that much for writing this, but here we are. Alex Smith led a ton of drives that racked up yardage and ended in field goals. That is why this feels bad, because Smith genuinely did look decent operating in his low risk high efficiency mission under General Andy Reid. He completed 31 of his 45 attempts for 386 yards, but no touchdowns. Kansas City gets Chicago, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh next though, so that bodes well for Alex and the Chiefs. FAAB Bid: $3 - 5
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs
Ronnie Hillman (DEN, RB) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 12
52% owned in Fleaflicker
Ronnie Hillman ripped off a huge run that seemed to make Twitter erupt, and Hillman truthers everywhere started firing off bottle rockets. Okay, but seriously Hillman ended the game with 11 rushes for 103 yards and a touchdown. The Denver offense looked pretty good against a "better than you think" Vikings defense, and everyone benefits when the offense starts clicking. Especially with a defense that is crushing it, legitimately the best in the game right now, the running game should get a boost from that gameflow.
Duke Johnson Jr. (CLE, RB) – FAAB Bid: $10 - 12
47% owned in Fleaflicker
The Browns seemed to have realized last week that Duke Johnson Jr. needed to be utilized in the passing game (he had six receptions in Week 3). Duke Johnson Jr. is listed here as a running back, but you are taking him in PPR leagues because he is a fantastic receiver now and has shown it in back to back weeks. He finished Week 4 with 31 rushing yards on eight carries, but he got nine receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown. The San Diego front isn't particularly frightening, so it's not as though the Browns passed out of necessity, it seems they genuinely saw Johnson Jr. as a weapon to use in general. He had an incredible touchdown catch in the back of the end zone on the heels of a beautifully run wheel route. Week 5 sees the Browns facing the Ravens, who should present more issues for Crowell trying to pound the rock between the tackles, but hopefully a hurt linebacker corps becomes a bullseye for Cleveland and Johnson Jr. gets ten targets again.
Chris Thompson (WSH, RB) – FAAB Bid: $2 - 4 (PPR Leagues Only)
4% owned in Fleaflicker
Chris Thompson is now completely entrenched in the passing back role for Washington. He won't see much usage in games where Washington isn't trailing, though that is up to you and how much you believe the Redskins will be playing from behind. He was able to rip off a strong run as well, which only helps his case for more snaps. I strongly believe that Thompson will definitely get his opportunities throughout the year to be useful in PPR leagues. He could be your garbage time hero. In standard leagues you should probably look elsewhere, but don't overlook Thompson if you're in deeper PPR leagues and need some RB help. In the end, Alfred Morris, Matt Jones, and Chris Thompson will all hurt each other by eating into each other's production, but Thompson gets the clear boost with his receiving prowess.
Others To Note:
Darren McFadden (RB, DAL) - 60% owned
If he isn't owned already, go and get him. Lance Dunbar's serious injury opens the door for more snaps for McFadden, who might take on some passing down responsibilities for Dallas with the loss of Dunbar. If he's available, go and get him. FAAB Bid: $6 - 8.
Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA) - 33% owned
With Marshawn Lynch out, Thomas Rawls was "the guy" for Seattle over the veteran Fred Jackson. Rawls also happened to look very good, though Chicago may have allowed me to get 100 yards, it was still impressive. Rawls finished with 16 carries for 104 yards. Now Lynch is out for Monday night, and while this is being written before the game, look to gain some real perspective on who Rawls is now that there is some tape on him and the Lions can plan for him. FAAB Bid: $8 - 10 / Lynch Owner: $18 - 20
Antonio Andrews (RB, TEN) - 5% owned
I can copy and paste a chunk of this from last week as it's still valid. Andrews got 49 yards on 12 carries and punched in a touchdown in Week 3. He was hurt as the year started, but he clearly jumped over Terrance West with this showing for those short yardage plays, and even more than that. Bishop Sankey is not going to be a bellcow for Tennessee, there is a place for Andrews to produce for the Titans, and therefore there is likely a place for Andrews on your squad in deeper leagues. He may very well have flown under the radar as the Titans were in their bye week, and he has a horrible matchup against Buffalo in Week 5, but after that things look good for him (MIA, ATL, HOU, NO). FAAB Bid: $4 - 6
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers
Allen Hurns (JAX, WR) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8
22% owned in Fleaflicker
Don't chase this production thinking he is the new lead dog in Jacksonville, though he is no slouch either. His first three games saw him put up lines of 5-60-0, 4-68-0, and 2-70-1. Week 4 ended with a line of 11-116-1, which is beautiful. This game seems to follow the pattern that you start the number two receiver against the Colts, just as Percy Harvin went off in Week 1 as Sammy Watkins drew Vontae Davis, and Eric Decker went off before being hurt in Week 2, and now Hurns. Marqise Lee and Julius Thomas will also be coming back soon, so Bortles' inefficient targets will be split up more. All of this being said, Hurns is clearly capable of being an effective flex option for owners, especially as the bye weeks are starting to hit in force. Bid on Hurns if you have wide receiver needs.
Leonard Hankerson (ATL, WR) – FAAB Bid: $6 - 8
14% owned in Fleaflicker
Everyone's running around freaking out about Devonta Freeman (okay, so it's warranted) while Leonard Hankerson's performance is going by a bit more unnoticed, hence the price tag. While Roddy White has more of a pedigree behind him, much of his value was the opportunity of being the second receiver in the Matt Ryan led Atlanta offense. As they find a rushing identity and Julio Jones continues to be a dominant force, Hankerson should see plenty of opportunities as an afterthought for defenses. While he struggled with drops early on, he is being given the reins to the #2 spot for Atlanta, and Week 4 saw him turn eight targets into a 6-103-1 line, which is more than enough to warrant a roster spot for owners.
Others to note:
Kamar Aiken (BAL, WR) – 4% owned
Breshad Perriman suffered a setback in his recovery from a knee injury, and is now out indefinitely. Steve Smith Sr. is dealing with multiple broken ribs, which sounds awful but doesn't actually mean he needs to miss a lot of time. All the same, this means plenty of opportunities are coming Aiken's way. While he's not a world beater out there, he's talented enough to convert additional targets into production that you're going to want to take advantage of. FAAB Bid: $4 - 6
Ted Ginn (CAR, WR) – 18% owned
Boom or bust with some tread still left on the tires, got two red zone looks from Cam Newton against a suspect Tampa Bay secondary, but it was great to see him get targets that weren't forty yards downfield. Someone has to be a receiver for Newton, and it looks like Ginn is separating from the pack. FAAB Bid: $1 - 2
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends
Richard Rodgers (DET, TE) – FAAB Bid: $4 - 6
25% owned in Fleaflicker
Andrew Quarless doesn't have any fantasy relevance when he's on the field, but when he's forced off of it due to injury, then yes that is significant. Richard Rodgers is the only real tight end the Packers have left, and it's becoming clear that Aaron Rodgers does notice Richard Rodgers out there. This week saw Richard Rodgers get six targets, which he turned into a 4-45-1 line. His targets have crept up as the season presses on. He's a solid TE2 option because of the firepower that this offense can generate. You don't need to rely on volume for Richard Rodgers, you just hope that he gets one of the many touchdowns that Green Bay churns out.
Owen Daniels (DEN, TE) – FAAB Bid: $3 - 5
47% owned in Fleaflicker
Owen Daniels has now put together back to back games with a touchdown, and while the volume doesn't make you feel comfortable, he does get to face the Oakland Raiders in Week 5. No tight end has failed to have a great game against Oakland yet, and while this might be horribly flawed thinking, there are plenty of worse options out there. The only thing that gives me pause is that Peyton tends to enjoy spreading the wealth, and the Raiders may not be able to score against Denver's defense, meaning the running game carries most of the load for the Broncos. That said, Daniels just needs to cash in on those short yardage red zone targets to make value for you. Look into Daniels in a cake matchup for Week 5.
Antonio Gates (SD, TE) - FAAB Bid: $8-10
62% owned in Fleaflicker
If this guy is still out there in your league because no one wanted to roster a guy who was suspended, you go and get him right now. Stevie Johnson pulled up lame with a hamstring injury, Malcom Floyd got concussed, and the Chargers are hurting on their offensive line like no other. Philip Rivers will love seeing his reliable big target in Antonio Gates back in the lineup, and he should slide back in seamlessly into the attack for San Diego.
NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]