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The MLB scheduling gurus are at it again with a wacky, two-game slate with games starting five hours apart. This will make things a little tricky in DFS as we likely won't have the Cardinals or Padres lineups before the Cubs and Marlins get underway. Beyond that, as of this morning, the Padres don't even have a pitcher available in FanDuel as they plan to roll with the classic bullpen-game strategy in an elimination-game.
Attacking a two-game slate is a bit different than a larger one. Almost every player will be rostered somewhere and DFS players need to calculate a player's fantasy upside, versus how rostered he will be among opponents. When facing a small slate, I like to ask myself two questions. What is this player's most likely outcome? How will the slate be affected if this player reaches or exceeds his most likely outcome? With that in mind, let's dive into these games.
I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 10/1/2020. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like DraftKings, and other sports.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Yu Darvish - CHC vs. MIA ($11,000)
I'll start with the obvious, Darvish's rostership will be through the roof. However, keeping in mind the two questions asked in the intro, I am not missing out on the Cubs' right-hander today. Darvish has been elite this season sporting a 2.01 ERA supported by a strong 2.23 FIP. He is among the best strikeout artists in the game as his 31.3 percent strikeout rate was ninth in the Majors and he induced swinging-strikes 14.4 percent of the time, also ninth in the Majors. Miami is not a daunting opponent to begin with and will be even weaker without Starling Marte (hand). The other pitchers on the slate, Jack Flaherty and Sixto Sanchez, have some name recognition so hopefully, they can take some rostership away from Darvish and he avoids being in the ~80 percent range we saw Clayton Kershaw carry Thursday. Regardless of how many people pay-up for Darvish, I want him on my team as well. If he stinks, the whole contest will go down too. However, his most-likely outcome is a very strong start and if he hits his double-digit strikeout upside it will be virtually impossible to cash a lineup without Darvish.
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Jesus Aguilar - 1B, MIA @ CHC ($2,800)
Normally playing a hitter and pitcher facing each other is a DFS no-no, but on a short slate it's easier to get away with. Aguilar obviously faces a daunting matchup vs Darvish, but the 30-year-old has been hitting the ball well this season and could be a low-owned 1B option who will be immensely valuable if he can solve the Cubs' ace. Aguilar set a new career-best strikeout rate this season getting his number under 20-percent and has been making good contact when he does hit the ball thanks to a 7.6 percent barrel rate. He's the cheapest of the likely starters at the cold corner so he's worth a shot as a contrarian-play in a hitter-friendly venue.
Jason Kipnis - 2B, CHC vs. MIA ($2,300)
Kipnis is our value-play today and, despite his unfavorable position in the batting order, should be in line for a good game today. Opposing starter Sixto Sanchez averaged 2.54 BB/9 which is significantly higher than his last two years in the minors. The Marlins' rookie has looked dominant at times, but those command issues have hurt him too this season and Kipnis is in good position to take advantage. The second baseman has a 9.4 percent career-walk rate and at his price he could return value with one trip on base.
Tommy Edman - 3B, STL @ SD ($3,100)
Edman is one of the safer hitters on a short slate as he hits high in the batting order and can score fantasy points in a number of ways. The switch-hitter had a down season in 2020 but posted a .865 OPS last season and had 11 homers and 15 steals. The Padres are planning a bullpen game so a switch-hitter like Edman is valuable as he'll keep the platoon advantage all game long versus whatever San Diego trots out of the bullpen.
Fernando Tatis Jr. - SS, SD vs. STL ($4,300)
The same logic used on Darvish applies here. Tatis will be highly-rostered after his heroics on Thursday but no hitter on the slate has as much upside as the rookie-superstar. Tatis had two home runs on Thursday in one of the best performances in Padres' postseason history and I want him on my DFS lineup for an encore. Flaherty is certainly a tough matchup, but sometimes good hitting beats good pitching. Expect more fireworks from the MVP candidate in Game 3.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Ian Happ - OF, CHC vs. MIA ($3,400)
Somehow, Ian Happ is the highest-priced outfielder on a slate without any high-end outfield options. Happ is a strong play on Friday as he will bat leadoff for a lineup with an implied-run total above four, not bad for a playoff game. Happ, like Kipnis, sports a strong walk rate and could find success as the leadoff hitter facing a rookie that has struggled with control at times. I love pairing Happ with Kipnis as the likely 9/1 hitters to set up a Cubs stack.
Kyle Schwarber - OF, CHC vs. MIA ($2,900)
Speaking of stacking Cubs, Schwarber is someone who should be in position to have a big game if he continues to bat cleanup. Schwarber cranked 11 homers in 59 games this season and was in the top five percent of the league with a 92.8 percent average exit velocity. He sports a 13.6 percent barrel-rate for his career and should be able to hit one out of Wrigley today with men on base if he can barrel one up.
Dylan Carlson - OF, ST.L @ SD ($2,600)
Carlson got off to a slow start to his rookie season but put up a .524 slugging percentage in September and has been batting fourth for the redbirds. He walked twice on Thursday so he's seeing the ball well and should be able to do damage if he gets pitches in the strike zone versus a string of San Diego relievers. Carlson is too cheap for his position in a Cardinals batting order that put up seven and nine runs in the first two games.
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