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It's hump day which means we've got a split-slate in Major League Baseball as several teams will play afternoon games in preparation for a travel day. In this space, we'll be looking at the main slate on FanDuel which locks at 7:05 ET. There are pitching options galore on this slate headlined by Gerrit Cole pitching in Tampa Bay. His price tag is up to $12,000 so you're paying for the safety he provides. Also in the $10K range are Brandon Woodruff and Danny Duffy. Woodruff is a solid pivot off of Cole in cash games but Duffy doesn't belong here.
Don't get me wrong, Duffy has been great this year and he's been in plenty of Rotoballer's DFS recommendation articles this season. At this price, however, you're paying for what he's already done as well as an obvious matchup versus a Tigers lineup that can't hit lefties. He'll be popular and leave little room for error if he doesn't pitch great. There are plenty of pitchers below him in price (and below in this article) that are better options on this slate.
Read below to find out what player I will be suggesting for your lineups, as I provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 5/12/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also check out today's DraftKings MLB DFS lineup picks, and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. With that out of the way, read my picks, and let your feelings guide you....
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Zac Gallen - ARI vs MIA ($8,200)
Before we get into Gallen I will point out that Gerrit Cole is the safest cash game play in DFS. His 40 percent strikeout rate provides a strong floor and Tampa Bay whiffs a lot. He checks all the boxes. High K floor. Spacious ballpark in Tampa. Heavy favorite for a win. I don't blame anyone for playing Cole. However, if you want to save some cash, might I recommend a ZAC GALLEN REVENGE GAME?
As far as I know, there is no statistical evidence that says revenge games matter. But that wouldn't fit the narrative that will circle Gallen tonight against the team he first broke into to the Big Leagues with. Miami is awful against right-handed pitching. They are fourth in the league with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate and rank 28th in baseball in wOBA and OPS versus righties. Gallen, on the other hand, has been good since returning from a forearm injury he suffered in Spring Training. He's got a 3.04 ERA supported by a 2.99 FIP and is averaging 10.8 K/9. Call it a revenge game, call it a good matchup, call it whatever you want. Just don't fade Gallen tonight.
GPP Play
Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR @ ATL ($7,900)
My favorite pitcher on the slate. Ryu has been up and down this season but his overall numbers still look good as he's sporting a 3.35 ERA with a 3.10 FIP and 3.11 xFIP. This pick is more about his opponent, the Atlanta Braves.
Did you know the Braves are awful against lefties? It's true! They rank 29th in wOBA and OPS versus left-handers with only the anemic Tigers being worse. They also strike out a lot against southpaws as their 27.2 percent strikeout rate is the seventh-highest in baseball. The Braves splits are a weird trend that's forming early in the season. We all know Detroit is bad against everyone, but the Braves are third in baseball in OPS versus righties. They have a good lineup featuring some elite hitters like Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman. Why they can't hit lefties is a mystery but it's only a matter of time before the front office addresses the problem. Attack the Braves with lefties while you can, starting with Ryu tonight.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Matt Beaty - 1B/OF, LAD vs SEA ($2,100)
The Dodgers have the highest implied run total on the slate and are the only team implied to score five runs or more on the slate. That will certainly make them a popular stack tonight but one way to differentiate from the masses is to use the bottom of the order. This is a tad risky, especially as the home team, but Mariners starter Justin Dunn gets CRUSHED by lefties and Beaty could be a steal at this price. Dunn has a .237 career wOBA versus righties but has a whopping .375 mark against lefties. Beaty tends to be in the lineup versus RHP so if he's in there tonight he's a strong way to get cheap exposure to LA.
Gavin Lux- 2B, LAD vs SEA ($2,000)
Wash, rinse, repeat what was said about Beaty only with a player who has prospect pedigree and is starting to heat up. Lux was once a top-five prospect in baseball but has gotten off to a slow start. He's been better since the calendar flipped to May as he's batting .323 since May 2 and has cut his strikeout rate down to about 15 percent in that time. He carries the minimum price tag tonight while facing Dunn who's struggles versus lefties were already documented. Beaty/Lux make a nice, cheap wraparound stack with the pricier top of the Dodgers order.
Alec Bohm - 3B/1B, PHI @ WAS ($2,800)
Speaking of former prospects that should come around soon, Alec Bohm is marred in a bit of a slump and his FanDuel price is back under $3K. That's a good deal for Bohm as he should start seeing results soon. His .221 batting average is bad but his xBA implies his average should be .276 based on the quality of contact he's making. Manager Joe Girardi sat Bohm on Tuesday to give the kid a "mental rest day" as he seemed to be struggling with his poor performance. It may have helped as Bohm doubled, drove in a run and scored on Wednesday. He's making great contact and will have the platoon advantage versus Jon Lester tonight.
Corey Seager - SS, LAD vs SEA ($3,700)
We covered the value Dodgers tonight but Seager is a must-play as a left-handed bat against the righty Dunn. Seager is on fire and should have a field day if he gets three cracks at Dunn. There are other shortstops that offer more value, but we found plenty of value elsewhere. Money needs to be spent somewhere and Seager is one of the top options to pay up for on this slate.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, NYY @ TB ($3,700)
Speaking of top options to pay up for, Stanton is facing Ryan Yarbrough in a battle of extremes. Stanton is one of the biggest sluggers in the game and is the gold standard when talking about exit velocity and hard-hit rates. Yarbrough is the polar opposite as he relies on limiting hard contact. When this matchup happens, give me the power hitter. Both Stanton and Aaron Judge are in play tonight as righty mashers facing a soft-tossing lefty.
Shohei Ohtani - OF, LAA @ HOU ($4,000)
Another big-time power hitter who will have the platoon advantage versus a hittable pitcher. Ohtani is on fire at the plate this season with 10 homers already. He's got 26 runs and 26 RBI through only 35 games. His .591 slugging percentage ranks ninth among qualified hitters and he's got a good chance to pad that number tonight.
Andrew McCutchen - OF, PHI @ WAS ($3,400)
'Cutch took an 0-for-5 last night but was riding a six-game hit-streak before that as he's been a steady presence atop a potent Philly lineup. They'll face an old friend in Jon Lester tonight whom McCutchen has seen 35 times in his career. While his overall numbers versus Lester aren't great, batter versus pitcher data isn't something I like to rely on anyway. Philly has a solid 4.6 implied run total tonight versus the lefty Lester and the righty-swinging McCutchen should be able to set the table for a nice Phillies stack tonight.
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