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We've got a split-slate on the final Saturday before the All-Star break. As always, check out Jorge Pucks' analysis of the afternoon slate here. In this space, we'll be breaking down the main slate which begins at 7:15 ET featuring 80 percent of the NL Central going toe-to-toe along with the Yankees throwing out their ace in Gerrit Cole versus Zack Greinke and the Houston Astros.
Later in the evening, we'll get another trio of games to give us a tidy six-game slate which is much more manageable than the 14-game behemoth we played on Friday. With a smaller slate, we won't need as high of a score to cash, but we'll need to factor in ownership a little more as there are a finite number of ways to build lineups within the allocated salary cap.
I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 7/10/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like DraftKings, and other sports.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Walker Buehler – LAD vs. ARI ($10,400)
Here on the East Coast, I've seen and heard very little about Walker Buehler aside from his cheesy MLB Network commercial. That's a good thing as the young Dodger has been a beacon of consistency amid plenty of drama and injuries elsewhere in the LA rotation. Buehler has made 17 starts this year and lasted at least six innings in 16 of them while picking up at least six strikeouts 10 times. He's faced this Diamondbacks club twice so far and went at least seven innings in both starts while allowing only two runs total and picking up 18 strikeouts.
Buehler sports one of the best four-seam fastballs in the game as the pitch has already generated a healthy -11 run value against it. Arizona, on the other hand, ranks 24th in weighted average against four-seamers, sometimes it's as simple as that. Vegas has the Dodgers as -330 favorites in this game making Buehler a virtual lock to pick up bonus points for a win and quality start, both much more valuable on FanDuel. Best of all, there are a lot of pitchers in play tonight so Buehler's rostership percentage shouldn't be out of control as some will gravitate towards Cole, who is perceived as better, Freddy Peralta who is cheaper, or German Marquez who always is in play away from Coors Field. Not me though. Give me an ace facing a bad lineup that's probably already dreaming about their time off for the All-Star break.
Potential Alternate Play
Patrick Sandoval – LAA at SEA ($7,700)
Patrick Sandoval had his best start of the season versus these Mariners on June 6 as he allowed two earned runs in six innings while picking up a career-high 10 strikeouts. Since then, Sandoval has continued to be an essential piece of the Angels rotation pitching to a 3.90 ERA with a 3.21 xFIP and 36 strikeouts across 27 2/3 innings since that Seattle start. In fact, this run of success from Sandoval earned him the spotlight in Eric Samulski's fantastic "Catcher's Corner" video breakdown series. While Eric did point out some concerns, primarily for redraft managers, what Sandoval is doing should be plenty to carve through a light-hitting Mariner's lineup tonight.
The Mariners lineup is sporting a 26.1 percent strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching which is fourth-worst in the Majors. On the other side of the coin, Seattle is not hitting lefties at all when it does make contact as its team wOBA is below .300 and ranks 26th in baseball. Sandoval, meanwhile, is rocking an excellent 16.8 percent swinging-strike rate and a 32 percent CSW rate, both strong indicators of future success. Fire up the lefty in Seattle tonight.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Matt Carpenter - 1B, STL - at CHC ($2,800)
I need to preface this with two things: first, Carpenter is not an everyday player anymore. Additionally, I do not generally rely on BvP data. There are exceptions to every rule, however, and Matt Carpenter has a 1.020 xSLG against Zach Davies. That's not a typo nor am I confusing it with OPS. Carpenter's expected SLUGGING percentage versus Davies is over 1.000 in a 33 plate-appearance sample size. He's batting .481 versus Davies with three homers versus the soft-tossing righty. If Carpenter is in the lineup - and not batting eighth where he'll get pinch-hit for before seeing Davies a third time - plug him in for this juicy matchup on Chicago's North Side.
Potential Alternate Play: Omar Narvaez ($2,500) vs CIN.
DJ LeMahieu – 2B/3B, NYY - at HOU ($3,500)
Houston's Minute Maid Park is one of the best venues for right-handed hitters and the Bronx Bombers are the top lineup to pay up for on this slate. DJ LeMahieu seems to be over his early-season funk as he's batting .323 since June 22 with a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Zack Greinke is a good pitcher, but the veteran primarily relies on soft contact which is not a recipe for success against this Yankees lineup, especially given the venue and the fact New York will start eight or nine right-handed hitters.
Taylor Ward – 3B, LAA, at SEA ($2,500)
Ward is a nice value batting in the middle of an Angels lineup facing Chris Flexen. Flexen has displayed reverse-splits this season as his .334 wOBA allowed to RHB is over 40 points higher than it is against LHB. Ward has been batting fifth for the Angels and makes a nice value play as a one-off or an essential piece of a stack as all of the Angels are fairly inexpensive aside from Shohei Ohtani, who is obviously in play versus almost any hurler.
Willy Adames – SS, MIL - vs CIN ($2,700)
Milwaukee is tied for the highest implied-run total on the slate at 4.7 and Adames is an inexpensive way to get in on the action in American Family Field. Adames is slashing .297/.380/.552 since being sent from the Rays to the Brewers and has reached base safely in 14 of his last 15 games. He'll have the platoon advantage versus Vladimir Gutierez, as well in this matchup.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Giancarlo Stanton – OF, NYY - at HOU ($3,800)
As noted with LeMahieu, Grienke is in a tough spot facing this righty-heavy Yankee lineup in Houston. Stanton hits the ball as hard as anyone in the Majors and will take aim at the Crawford Boxes in Houston, one of the shortest left-field fences in baseball. He's got three homers versus Greinke in his career and while BvP data isn't always reliable, this makes sense as Greinke is a soft-tosser and Stanton hits the crap out of the ball. No one on the slate has more potential for a multi-homer game.
Dylan Carlson - OF, STL - at CHC ($2,800)
Carlson is consistently one of the most under-priced players on FanDuel while batting leadoff for a good St. Louis offense. He reached base four times in five PA on Friday and has reached base safely in 13 of his last 15 games giving him a high floor for a hitter. Toss in a good matchup versus Davies in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field and you've got nice value for under $3K.
Tyler O'Neill – OF, STL - at CHC ($3,600)
If playing Carlson, also play the guy who should drive him in. That would be probable cleanup hitter Tyler O'Neill who has some of the best batted-ball data you'll find. O'Neill has a whopping 18.4 percent barrel rate and is in the top five percent of the league with a scorching 93.4 MPH average exit velocity. Davies is a pitcher we can pick on and the Cardinals are a nice stack at their arch-rivals.
Get it ARCH rivals, cuz St. Louis. Never mind. Good luck with your entries!
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