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What a few weeks it has been in the Ultimate Fighting Championship. After Petr Yan lost the Bantamweight strap by disqualification at UFC 259, we witnessed the bout between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad end via no contest due to an inadvertent eye poke. Entering Saturday night, the promotion has another exciting card, complete with a main event that features two top-10 middleweights in Derek Brunson and Kevin Holland. As we continue the countdown toward UFC 260 and UFC 261, an event that will embrace the return of in-person spectators, the promotion should continue to offer plenty of upside for DFS enthusiasts over the next month or so.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA lineup picks for FanDuel for UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Hollan on 3/20/2021. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on FanDuel. You can check out our DraftKings MMA DFS picks as well.
Give me a follow on Twitter @DennisMClausen. Also, be sure to join me and my tag team partner, Brady Grove, for “Tap That,” a weekly podcast dedicated to MMA news and fantasy analysis. This article will be updated before the UFC Fight Night Prelims, so be sure to check back for some last-minute additions to help round out your lineup.
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FanDuel MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Derek Brunson, $16 - vs. Kevin Holland
Brunson is one of the organization’s rising stars in the middleweight division, so much so, he felt he was ready for a top-five opponent. Although he won’t get what he wanted, he will get more than he may be able to handle when he squares off with Kevin Holland.
Brunson hasn’t been the most active combatant. However, he still has been impressive, nonetheless. After the All-American wrestler lost both of his fights in 2018, he bounced back the following year, defeating both Elias Theodorou and Ian Heinisch by unanimous decision. He then brutalized Edmen Shahbazyan last summer, dispatching him via third-round TKO. Those three fights opened the door for Brunson’s ascent north in the middleweight division.
However, Brunson will face his toughest challenge in years on Saturday night. Holland was the busiest fighter possibly in the world of mixed martial arts in 2020, appearing inside the octagon five times. He won all of those bouts, with four of them ending by either TKO or KO. He is one of the hardest-hitting fighters in the division and has the potential to end things quickly on any given night.
Both men matchup relatively evenly. While Brunson has the edge as a grappler, landing 2.6 of his takedown attempts, Holland is more proficient as a striker, with just over four significant strikes landed per 15 minutes. Brunson is significantly better at defending a takedown attempt. How, Holland may be better as a submission specialist.
This one may be better settled with a coin toss. If you are participating in cash games on Saturday night, Holland may be the more logical choice, primarily since he is the -175 betting favorite. However, if you are looking to save some cash and make a bigger impact in GPP formats, “Bumson” is your man, especially since he has a better chance at winning than the odds suggest.
FanDuel MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Montel Jackson, $23 - vs. Jesse Strader
After losing to Ricky Simons at UFC 227, Jackson turned things around by defeating Brian Kelleher, Andre Soukhamthath, and Felipe Colares during a span of just over a year. But then, after continuing to train for months during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, "Quik" went on to lose to Brett Johns last summer over in Abu Dhabi.
Heading into his possible match of redemption, the 28-year-old is still considered one of the organization’s most promising combatants. In order to keep that label, he will have to beat up Jesse Strader, a fighter with a 5-1 professional record.
Strader made his mark south of the border. He is a knockout artist who has won all of his fights—except one—by KO or TKO. He hasn’t fought since August of 2019, but he claims he has continued to train extensively during his time away, routinely matching up with parters who he is unfamiliar with.
These guys will likely come out swinging for the fences. Jackson will be looking to land a punch back into the win column, while Strader will be looking for a second bout in the organization. Strader is taking the fight on short notice (10 days), so Jackson, who also has the experience edge fighting under the UFC umbrella, is the likely victor in this one.
Some outlets have labeled Jackson as a -750 favorite. If you are feeling ballsy, “Sui Generis” is a guy capable of scoring the upset. Is it likely he will win? No. However, it doesn’t seem reasonable that Jackson will walk all over him, either. While Jackson is the man in tournament formats, if you are looking to catch others off guard in big tournaments, Strader has upside for sure, and a rostering cost too good to ignore.
