RADIO
From the time it took me to sign up for this article and write it, the hype surrounding the Pirates' pitcher has picked up significantly which makes this all the more compelling of a situation to analyze.
As a long-suffering Pirates fan, my first instinct was to avoid trying to break down Keller's chances of a breakout season as I wasn't sure I could objectively analyze him without letting my fandom interfere. He's been a major disappointment so far in his career but has also flashed incredible upside at the same time and we have so few things to get excited about in Pittsburgh that sometimes we tend to be overly pessimistic about our own players.
But this is a pitcher who has talent worthy of multiple chances and who is still young enough to figure it out. Let's take a journey through the ups and downs of his career to figure out how likely a post-hype breakout might be this season and whether he belongs on the list of draft sleepers.
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Prospect Pedigree
Keller is a former second-round pick of the Pirates back in 2014 and signed right out of high school. At one point, he was once regarded as the Pirates' best prospect and one of the better pitching prospects in all of baseball. He spent five and a half seasons in the minors before finally making his MLB debut in 2019. He will turn 26 years old right before Opening Day but has still only made 39 career starts at the big league level.
The sample size of him being really good in the minors at each level is fairly large, though he didn't quite dominate at Triple-A the same way that he did in the lower minors. With the Pirates' lack of other young starting pitching talent in the organization, their hopes of having a reliable arm in the rotation every fifth day are pinned on Keller finally figuring it out this season.
Failed Expectations
To say that Keller has been a bust so far might be a bit of an understatement. He's been a complete disaster. He made 11 starts in 2019 and compiled an ERA over seven, but also struck out hitters at a 28.6% clip. Then in the shortened 2020 season, he teased everyone by making five starts with a 2.91 ERA. But at the same time, the strikeouts disappeared and just about everything about that small sample of data was flawed as he had a fluky .104 BABIP and a 93% strand rate. If he had pitched more innings in 2020, he was due for some major regression and his overall numbers would have looked a lot worse.
Speaking of looking worse, here are his Statcast sliders from 2021 - ouch! 2021 was brutal for Keller as he made 23 starts for the Pirates and posted an ugly ERA of 6.17. There are not too many silver linings either as his strikeouts rate dipped back down to 19% and his velocity on his four-seamer (which he throws nearly 60% of the time) hovered between 93-94 MPH.
Keller's fastball got crushed and from a batted ball perspective, he was one of the worst starters in baseball last year. It was hard to watch at times and his confidence has clearly been shaken. He's a kid who has had success pitching at every level but has simply been creamed so far by major league hitters and it certainly looked like it was taking a toll on him.
Reasons for Optimism
Hope springs eternal, right? Back in January, this video surfaced on Twitter, showing Keller working out with Tread Athletics and touching 100 MPH in bullpen sessions.
Tread Athlete and Pirates RHP @mkeller11 with one of the most electric bullpens we have ever seen here at Tread HQ ⚡️?#TreadFam pic.twitter.com/8iZVwL15VZ
— Tread Athletics (@TreadHQ) January 27, 2022
Whether or not that velocity is sustainable is certainly not guaranteed but he looked electric in those videos and a return to his top velocity would likely do wonders for his chances of getting big leaguers out. He made his Spring Training debut on March 20th but had it cut short as he took a line drive off his thigh. He allowed two hits in 1.2 innings and struck out one. The good news is that he's likely fine and it wasn't an injury to his arm, core, or upper body. And the hype train started back up again among fantasy analysts when his velocity was up on all his pitches as well as increased spin rates.
Mitch Keller today:
4-Seam: 96.7 mph (93.8 last season)
Curve: 81.8 mph (78.5 last season)
Slider: 88.5 mph (86.1 last season)
Spin rates were up 78 rpm on 4-Seam and 137 RPM on slider.— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) March 20, 2022
His slider has been his best pitch since he added it in the high minors and if he can throw it in the high-80s to complete a mid-90s fastball, you could see a path to regaining the strikeout prowess he had in the minors. His curveball got crushed last season, so throwing the slider (and maybe the changeup) more often can only be a good thing. He can always retool his pitch mix as needed, but the key here is the increased velocity and spin rates which show that he could have better quality pitches to work with this season.
Where to Draft
Keller is really only a guy you need to consider in deeper leagues. His current ADP is around 300 so there is very little risk in taking him there. This is pretty much a no-brainer for me, Keller is being undervalued in drafts for his upside. The bust potential is large but he clearly has more potential than the other pitchers being drafted around him. Is the velocity for real? Can he regain the confidence and mental toughness it takes to pitch at the MLB level? That remains to be seen. But if he's healthy this year, he has a chance to salvage his career and become a pretty solid pitcher. I'm here for the post-hype breakout and that's based on the evidence, not just wishful thinking! Take Keller late in drafts and hope that he puts it all together in 2022.
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