The King's Insider Report: Views From an MLB Scout

The award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller, this time with the takes of a longtime Major League scout. Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information. On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts, media members and others close to the game provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott supplies his fantasy baseball viewpoints on the commentaries.

These reports contain viewpoints that you will not find anywhere else, from the most authentic experts on the game: those who play it, have played it, and cover it and work inside the clubhouses. The sources interviewed are all informed that they are being asked questions for fantasy purposes, so they focus on projected player performance and trends that will drive statistical production in their answers. Please note that while the projections mentioned are from the complete season perspective, expect to trim/reduce accordingly when we do know the length of the full MLB schedule.

This latest installment of the Insider Series features the observations of an MLB scout who has covered the National and American Leagues in the live environment since 1980. This is the first installment of his exclusive scouting reports and recommendations on RotoBaller.com.

Insider Insights on Yordan Alvarez

“He faded in the postseason last year power-wise. He homered once in 58 at-bats. But he has already shown he can make some adjustments. For a power guy he does not have a long swing. That enables him to also hit the ball to the opposite field. He has shown he can cut down on his swing with two strikes. He certainly is a big kid. But he also has to go around the league some more. He has a shorter sample size but he is already a very good offensive player. I think pitchers will make some adjustments to him, and the batting average will drop. Over a full season, I would expect a .260 average with 30 to 35 homers and 90 to 100 RBI.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: A drop in batting average can also be expected when you consider Alvarez’s .366 BABIP last season. Alvarez had an Opposite Field Percentage of 24.6% last year, but to this scout’s point, he was well over 30% for much of his minor league career, so we should see him improve on that number over time, improving his average and other results.

As evidenced below, Alvarez is going to paste the ball every time he hits it, with his 48.9% hard-hit rate finishing in the top-five percentile in baseball. His 92.2 mph average exit-velocity was also in the top-five percentile, with his 17.2% barrel-rate placing as the sixth-highest in baseball.

*Notable Statcast categories in which Yordan Alvarez ranked in the top percentiles in the Majors last year, via Baseball Savant. 

Don’t expect a falloff in overall power and run production, as his .602 xSLG was sixth in the league and comparable to his .655 SLG, which ranked second. HIs .410 xwOBA was sixth in MLB, compared to a .432 WOBA, which finished third. Alvarez's 14.1 % walk-rate also finished in the top-six percentile of the league and RotoBaller projects a .385 OBP for those who play in those formats.

There may be some cold spells that bring his average down, but Alvarez should continue to do serious damage every time he hits the ball. His 40 ADP in NFBC leagues certainly makes sense, as the power production is already evident and Alvarez should continue to adjust from the off-stretches like the one in the playoffs last year.

Insider Insights on Fernando Tatis Jr.

“The back injury cut his season short, but he is young and is an outstanding all-around player. I would expect his stolen base totals to go up over a full season. He is fast, but does not have blazing speed. He is just really good on the basepaths. He is a really good all-around hitter. He will struggle with the breaking ball at times, but Tatis is an outstanding player who is just going to get better. I would expect a .300 average with 25 to 30 homers and 30 steals, but he could get closer to 40 if they let him run often.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: There is some minor skepticism among fantasy analysts who point to Tatis’s 29.6% strikeout-rate that was in the bottom 7% of the league, a .259 xBA driven by a .410 BABIP, and just a 31.9% fly-ball rate. However, Tatis has only logged 334 at-bats in the Majors and this scout expects quick improvements on the job.

In 2018 at Double-A (San Antonio), Tatis had 16 homers and 16 steals in 88 games, so his skill sets in those categories seem obvious. Tatis’s 29.3 Sprint Speed was in the top-35 in baseball in 2019, which should serve him well as new manager Jayce Tingler is expected to bring an aggressive baserunning approach to the Padres. As a field coordinator for Texas last year, Tingler oversaw the baserunning approach for the Rangers, who led the MLB in 2019 with 131 total steals.

Expecting Tatis to have a .300 AVG again might be a bit much, so I will disagree with the scout there. But he believes Tatis will continue to be a quick study in the Majors, so his 17 ADP in NFBC leagues is warranted given the power/speed potential.

Insider Insights on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

“He has a very high ceiling. He has excellent bat speed and hits to all fields. He is like his dad in terms of his grasp of the strike zone. He is a free swinger who knows how to make a lot of contact. But his defense can be an issue and mentally that could hurt his offense at times. They might have to move him from third base to first at some point. He is so big I don’t see third as his true spot. But he is definitely a big time impact player and his curve is pointing up. His upside for this year is close to 38 home runs and 115 RBI with a .270 average. He just has to work on his defense and gain more experience.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Guerrero was a disappointment last year for those who drafted him in early rounds, and critics pointed to items such as his suspect conditioning and a 49.6% ground ball-rate. Both his 38.4% hard-hit rate and 89.4 mph average exit-velocity were not even in the top-100, and his 0.7 dWAR indicates proof of the defensive questions this scout noted.

Guerrero is still only 21 years old, though, and while the statistical promise is obviously great, there may still be some patience needed in terms of the expected big breakout. At a 55 ADP in NFBC, the upside is being baked in, but so is the savvy realization that he could tap his enormous potential at any time and take the first true steps into stardom.

Insider Insights on Dinelson Lamet

“He is a very interesting prospect. His stuff is filthy. He had Tommy John surgery and that takes about a year to fully come back from. That is what 2019 was for. He has a power slider that he throws from the same arm slot as his fastball, which gives him a big advantage. His fastball is live. He does need some work on his command. But it was fairly decent last year. His changeup is improving. If he can fully harness it with his slider and fastball he can have quite an arsenal. The one bugaboo for him is the walks. Over a full season, though, he could win 10 to 15 games and get lots of strikeouts with about a 3.75 ERA.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Lamet has fashioned a 30.6% K-rate so far in two MLB seasons, and his 33.5% mark last year was in the top-7% in baseball. He has five offerings, and it will be interesting to see if he escalates usage of the changeup, which he only utilized 1.5% last season. But as the scout noted, his command needs to improve. Perhaps we'll see more changeups as his command evolves and he'll become more effective overall.

The slider is filthy, finishing with a 51.3 whiff-rate and just a .147 AVG against it. The 9.6% walk-rate last season is an obvious concern and will need to continue being addressed if Lamet wants to improve on his career 20.0 K-BB% and 1.23 WHIP. At a 122 ADP in NFBC, it is well worth tabbing Lamet for the strikeout promise as he evolves in other facets of his game.

As you can see below, the sinker and slider were his most frequently used pitches but if he starts featuring the changeup more, we could possibly see him progress and improve.

*Selected Pitch Tracking metrics for Dinelson Lamet in 2019 via Baseball Savant. 

Insider Insights on Byron Buxton

“He looked like he was starting to come around last year, then he got hurt again. He has really good bat speed and can hit the breaking ball. He can finally start to live up his potential this year. Staying on the field is the bottom line for him. You will get good power numbers but not obviously much in batting average. He is a free swinger to the point where he takes himself out of at-bats at times. I would project .265 with 25 steals, 20 to 25 homers and 85 RBI.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Buxton indeed showed signs of meeting expectations in between four trips to the injured-list. His 23.1% K-rate was the lowest of his career and he had 10 homers, 44 extra-base hits, and 14 steals in 87 games. His .433 xSLG was also a career-best, as was his .309 xwOBA, 8.3% Brl%, and 89.3 mph average exit velocity. Those numbers weren't outstanding by themselves but do point to continued progress for a player who's always carried exciting potential and natural abilities. The wheels, however, are outstanding, and Buxton's 30.3 Sprint Speed finished as the third-best in the MLB; a very appealing number in terms of his enticing stolen base promise.

It seems Buxton is possibly on the verge of providing his best production yet, and is well worth the pick at his current 155 ADP in NFBC. If he stays healthy, this could finally be the season when Buxton fully blossoms. And at the very least, he should bolster your power and speed production.

Insider Insights on Chris Archer

“He could be worth a gamble. He could be a free agent after the season. He has a lot to prove and he is not on a great team. He does have a tendency to mentally cave when things start collapsing around him. He starts to give up instead of grinding. He lets his emotions get the best of him. He doesn’t have great stuff, but he had some good years in Tampa Bay and he is feisty, and playing for a contract, and that motivates a lot of guys.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Archer had a career-high 5.19 ERA, but his 4.38 SIERA was much more tenable. He also boasted a 27.2% strikeout-rate, which would have been in the top-20 if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. The 10.5% walk-rate, however, was his highest since his rookie year and held down a disappointing  16.7% K-BB%.

Archer was more effective with his slider last year, with a 42.2% Whiff% that was up six-points from the year before.  He has also started to incorporate the sinker more into his selection over the past two seasons, finishing with a 10.4% usage-rate last season after not utilizing the pitch at all in 2017. Long having been criticized for having a limited selection of pitches, it appears that he is working to become more well-rounded.

At a  very reasonable 256 ADP in NFBC, it could be worth the late flier to see if he can indeed perform respectably in a contract-year.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice