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It's almost here! It's almost here! Opening Day is on Thursday!!
As we all get excited for Opening Day, we're also updating our personal rankings based on Spring Training performances as we cram in the last of our drafts. And of all the spring performances to analyze, it's the prospects that will have the biggest swings in their draft stock based on their last month of work. Once the minor league season starts up we'll begin looking more at the guys in the system to keep an eye on in the future, but for the first column of the year, we're looking at all the prospects that you should be watching that cracked the Opening Day roster.
It's crunch time everyone. Let's take a look at which prospects you should be targeting in your final drafts this year.
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Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT)
ADP: 136
Spring Training: 15 G, .413/.449/.696, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 5:3 K:BB
Let's start things off with the guy going the highest in drafts right now. To be honest, everyone should have heard of Hayes by now after his 2020 campaign and his performance this spring. He made his major league debut last season, and in 24 games Hayes slashed .376/.442/.682, with 14 of his 32 hits going for extra bases (seven doubles, two triples, five home runs) as he finished sixth in the Rookie of the Year voting. And he hasn't slowed down yet this spring, with six doubles, two triples, one home run and two steals in 15 games.
There were some concerns as to the repeatability of his performance last year, as he posted a .450 BABIP and a 25 percent HR/FB rate — far surpassing his minor league career-high of 8.5 percent. But his .300 xBA and .497 xSLG suggested that while he could be in for regression in 2021, last year's numbers aren't too far off from being legitimate. And while small sample size is a factor with every player's spring performances, Hayes is making a strong case that he could be a strong contender for NL Rookie of the Year this season. With Hayes having locked down the starting third base job, managers looking to wait on third base will be more than happy to draft Hayes in the middle rounds in any league format.
Dylan Carlson (OF, STL)
ADP: 157
Spring Training: 16 G, .250/.340/.432, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 12:5 K:BB
Even before Harrison Bader went down with injury, Carlson was already locked into a starting role in the Cardinals' outfield this year. Carlson underwhelmed at the plate in 2020 with a .200 average and .616 OPS, but he has already looked much better this spring by hitting .250 with a .772 OPS in 16 games. On top of that — while still a little high — Carlson has managed to lower his strikeout rate to 24 percent this spring from 29.4 percent last year.
Even that slight dip in his strikeout rate is an encouraging sign for managers, as Carlson looks to have suffered some amount of "unluckiness" in 2020. For starters, his .260 BABIP last year was nearly 50 points lower than his career mark in the minors. And then taking a look at his Statcast numbers, his .246 xBA and .443 xSLG suggest that he should have performed better than he actually did. Finally, add in the fact that his strikeout rate last year was nearly eight percent higher than his minor league career average (21.7%), and it all paints the picture of a rookie that had a double whammy of bad luck and adjusting to major league pitching. Carlson is a potential 20 homer-20 steal threat, and we have him ranked as the third-best overall prospect in redraft leagues for 2021. If you draft Carlson around his current 157 ADP, you could up with the steal of the draft with a potential top-100 player.
Tarik Skubal (SP, DET)
ADP: 312
Spring Training: 5 G, 17 IP, 0-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 18 K
The top left-handed pitching prospect in Detroit's system, Skubal was told he made the Opening Day rotation on Wednesday following what has been a solid Spring Training performance. He's allowed just three runs over 17 innings this spring, while posting a 26.9 percent strikeout rate. Those numbers look great, however, he has also managed to rack up quite a few baserunners with 11 hits and nine walks in that span. That being said, his 1.176 WHIP this spring is down from his 1.219 WHIP from 2020, and opponents are batting .196 against him as opposed to the .235 mark they posted against Skubal last year.
Like with Carlson, Skubal's Statcast numbers suggest he dealt with some amount of bad luck last year as well. His 4.52 xERA — while not exactly great — was better than his 5.63 ERA, and opposing batters' .222 xBA was 13 points lower than their actual mark. Along with that, Skubal looks to have gotten unlucky with the long ball, as his 20 percent HR/FB rate was nearly four times as high as his career minor league mark of 5.7 percent. And despite that unluckiness, Skubal still managed to post a 27.6 percent strikeout rate. If you're looking for a high-strikeout upside pitcher at the end of drafts and you're not worried about a slightly elevated ERA, Skubal is the guy to target.
Jazz Chisholm (2B/SS, MIA)
ADP: 516
Spring Training: 19 G, .268/.333/.488, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 4 SB, 13:4 K:BB
Chisholm's ADP is low now, but expect it to be on the rise soon after being named the Marlins' Opening Day second baseman on Sunday. Chisholm beat out Isan Diaz for the starting gig this spring by hitting .268 with an .821 OPS, while launching three homers and going 4-for-6 on stolen base attempts. And in just 19 games, Chisholm has shown managers the power-speed combination that will make him an asset in nearly every format. He showed speed early on in his career, but it was only in 2018 and 2019 that he began to show off his power potential — hitting 25 homers between Single-A and High-A in 2018 and 21 homers at Double-A in 2019. As the power bloomed in those two seasons, so did his speed as he swiped a career-high 17 bases in 2018 and followed it up with 16 steals in 2019.
He made his major league debut last year, and let's just say it could've been better as he batted .161 with a .563 OPS in 21 games. He also displayed the holes in his swing that have plagued him throughout his career, as his 30.6 percent strikeout rate in Miami was nearly identical to his career 30.1 percent rate in the minors. It is worth noting though that Chisholm's 9.5 percent swinging-strike rate in 2020 marked the first time at any level he has appeared in that he posted a rate below 14.5 percent, and along with that his strikeout rate has been slightly down this spring as he currently sports a 28.9 percent rate.
With this strong spring performance and the potential for his strikeout rate to come down this year, Chisholm looks like he's poised to have a breakout season in Miami, in which he could reach his 20-homer, 10-steal potential. Just to give you an idea of what kind of potential value that could be, in 2019 Ozzie Albies (24 HR, 15 SB) and Rougned Odor (30 HR, 11 SB) were the only second basemen to hit at least 20 home runs and steal 10 bases. Right now, you can find a second baseman with that potential at the tail-end of drafts.
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